Friday, April 08, 2011

TimeCom and Ramunia - further up next week?


  • aiyoo..spoke too soon on TimeCom...TimeCom went up to 0.94 in morning session before slide down to close at 0.885...but good news is price has broken resistance at 0.880...meaning, there's a chance to move further...goreng just begin??? Technical wise....althought RSI oversold but ADIX shows stronger uptrend...but obviously has exceeded Fair Value....pure goreng play...


  • Ramunia on the other hand...close to 0.645 after reach peak at 0.655 in morning session...sensing more upside next... TA wise...bullish signs all over the board...after broken resistance at 0.615...Ramunia may test next resistance up to 0.685... FA wise...Fair Value at 1.04 (PE10)...got O&G theme playing...and talks of projects from Petronas and rumours of strategic partnership...also dont forget....process of going out from PN17....in short, Ramunia has full package of a TNT...ready to explode...

TimeCom and Ramunia - on high turbo

woohoo!!!...my Ramunia and Timecom so bullish this friday morning....wat a goreng action...huge volume..i expect price to surge further if more volume come in today and next week...hopefully so.... Ctrs______AVP_______Current Price______Gain/Loss% Ramunia___0.613______0.645____________5.22% TimeCom__0.808______0.920____________13.86% *current price refers to price at 10.15a.m today.... Both were accumulated during bear in Feb and March 2011...now HOLD... later will SELL into strength....believe further upside....Ramunia TP1.01....TimeCOM also TP1.01...

TimeCom - further upside?

TimeCom had broken resistance at 0.880 on 7 April 2011 (yesterday)...and closed on 0.910...further upside is seen thru ADIX... entered on 9 March...profit at 12.61% roughly within 1 month...TP of 1.00 is very close...sell into strength...

Thursday, April 07, 2011

April 2011....One month after last Bear season....

A month ago decided...to keep quiet from blog....during last bear in February and March....kept averaging and holding....and kept quiet...total silence.... This is my latest portfolio... Ctrs______AVP__Current Price__Gain/Loss (%)____Notes Coastal ___2.51___ 3.50_______ 39.44 ____sold 50% batch @3.49 yesterday CSCsteel ___1.74 ___1.74_______ 0.00________ coma!!! dead fish...HOLD DRBHicom __1.88___ 2.48 _______31.91_____reaccumulate during last feb/march bear MBMR ____3.318 __3.03______ -8.08 _________still not moving!..accumulate more??? Mitra _____1.988 __2.42 _______21.73_________still HOLD for bonus plan... Naim _____3.655 __3.11_______ -14.91_____ worst hit ctr...but worth to accumulate?? Ramunia ___0.613 ___0.610 _____-0.49 ______HOLD to TP1.00 TimeCom __0.808___ 0.865_____ 7.05________HOLD to TP0.90 -TP1.00 So, conclusion...have total 8 ctrs in pocket...4 winners (3 above 25% and 1 above 5%)...2 losers (above -8%)...while 2 comas (ramunia and CSCsteel)....I think Ramunia will move soon but CSCsteel have to wait for 'Dividen Play' around May 2011 cos proposed dividen coming on June... This April got 2 things goin on.... 1. O&G theme play...pchem, perisai, kencana etc...petronas related all go... 2. InvestMalaysia on 14th April....the year before (2010)...bear season return just before InvestMalysia....will it be the same this year???

Thursday, March 03, 2011

Bursa...glimmer of hope?

on wednesday morning (2 feb 2011)...the reddest day since peak..i've taken some measure to protect profit...

_________AVP______SOLD_________CALL
1. DRB..........1.718.............1.83......................Protect Profit (2nd round)
2. KKB..........2.01..............2.06.....................Protect Profit (2nd round)
3. TWS..........7.74.............8.08.......................Protect Profit


and...re-accumulate on thursday...

1. DRB......AVP1.74

i think...tomoro and next week will be a good week to accumulate fundamental stocks at a good discount...

but need to be careful...as bearish sentiment still around....

my 2011 portfolio of rm97K...now at RM98K...realised gain in january is down to rm1K...staring unrealised paper loss of rm3.5K....invested capital at rm44K and now cash at hand at RM54K...

DRBHicom...on downtrend...

Yesterday was a lucky escape...during morning session at around 11 am...throw DRB at 1.83 (the last 8 big lot) ...reason being sensed negative sentiment plus DRB broke support at 1.90...

good news...fundamental still intact...so can re-start accumulate once solid base is formed later...

now, rm1.90 becomes the resistance..while support is as low as rm1.34...i'm thinking that area between 1.70 down to 1.50 is good area to start accumulate slowly...

Monday, February 28, 2011

Saag...4qtrs report is out for FY2010...danger!!!

4th qtr report is out on 28th feb 2011...

Qtr_______Rev_______Profit/Loss_______EPS
1qtr______12,793______4,895__________0.31
2nd______43,104______1,981__________0.11
3rd______23,623______13,541__________0.75
4th______39,641______(-29,834)________(-1.65)

this is the result of Saag for financial year 2010....

....look...on the whole we could see the revenue is improving quater on quater...but 4th qtr see a huge loss...why???? that is what i dont understand...

now, let's compare FY2008, FY2009 & FY2010...to see the trend...

FY ended_______Rev_______Profit/Loss_______EPS
2008_________542,130____30,545_________4.89
2009_________160,443____(-8,789)________(-1.03)
2010_________119,161____(-9,417)________(-0.52)

....scarry!!!..we could see declining revenue and declining profit...not good!...and EPS is still in negative....the company is at loss...

at first, i thought there's going to be a good turn around story bcos of good result from qtr1 to qtr 3....but...4th qtr FY2010 turn saag turnaround story into a mess!...look at FY2010...if revenue is up and shows good profit from qtr 1 to qtr 3...why suddenly registered a HUGE loss in qtr 4???? That...i dont understand....

but..this i do know....tomoro i have to say goodbye to saag...game over! I LOSE...

Bursa...broke support at 1494 and getting bloodier...

menakutkan!!!...well, wat can i say....this monday morning, bursa has broken support at 1494...and now trading at 1478 pts...u can expect tougher times ahead....for ur info, bursa had massive selling for the past 4 days in a row since 22 februari 2011....today is the 5th day...and looks like another big sale in the making....

...everybody is taken a surprise since regional was up in the previous week closing on friday....in the type of shakeout, even good fundamental stocks have to take some beating....i am not running...i am staying....on the reason that bursa has gone into oversold territory....

but just as a reminder....at current 1478 pts....bursa has broken 100MA support line....and thus the next support is at 1458 pts....and finally 1440 pts at 200MA support line....

...this tough time separates between the boys and the men....i still believe that this tough time will pass on....all the best to everyone...

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Mitrajaya...appetizers for mitra holders...

announcement made on 25 february 2011...

**Remarks :
The Directors are recommending a first and final single tier cash dividend of 12% and a share dividend on the basis of one (1) treasury share for every twenty (20) existing ordinary shares of RM1.00 each held in the Company, fractions of treasury shares to be disregarded in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2010.**


checkout full report at bursa malaysia~> http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp

so...wat izzit all about??? in simple words, Mitra are giving more present to mitra holder before bonus issue....listen...

1. cash dividen of 12%...aka 12 sen...mitra's par at rm1.00...or if taxed at 28%, div is at 8 sen...yeppi!
2. share dividen...1 for every 20 units...aka...100 unit per 2,000 unit...simpler term...2 big lots, u get 100 units...20 big lot, u got 1 big lot....yeppi!

get this...1 for every 20 unite means u get about another rm0.05 pershare...plus that 8 sen cash dividen (after tax)...means u get 13 sen nett dividen pershare....at the stock price of rm2.00, u get a Dividen Yield of 6.5%....nice...

bear in mind...this is just an appetizer....remember we still got Bonus Issue, Free Warrants and Share Splits coming afterwards....

checkout my previous review on mitra ~> http://investorsplanet.blogspot.com/2011/01/mitra-big-surprise.html

i am seeing good prospect in near term for Mitra...

TWS...TP15.00 call by Alex

haha..tq very much alex..for promoting TWS....will be a windfall for me i hope....surprisingly i got in earlier...before Alex made this call...

check out Alex's call on TWS ~> http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2011/02/tws-another-unbelievable-quarter.html

...I am proud too..bcos earlier alredi gave minimum TP and max TP...long time even before Alex made this call...seems like Alex is following me...haha..just joking la...anyway, sapa la kita ni...just seekor ikan bilis di laut dalam....

here my previous call on TWS ~> http://investorsplanet.blogspot.com/2011/01/pre-cny-portfolio.html

my only wish is that...hopefully the TP will be achieved between April to May 2011....but sooner is better la...why? becos i expected funds to push market down afterwards (in 2nd half)...

having said that...i am reviewing my TWS call...

basing on 4qtr result for FY2010...TWS eps stands at about 165 sen...so Fair Value at PE10 should be rm16.50...give about 20% further discount...so minimum TP should be around rm13.20...simple math...TWS must achieved this minimum TP within 3 months time...or else...downturn next...

next hurdle is at rm9.00...if broken...then next is rm10.00...TWS is very quick and nimble due to a very low number of shares floating amongst retailer investors...so dont be surprise when seeing fast up and fast down...

now, i know a lot of investors are worried about TWS debts...i would bring to arguement 2 points...

1. a good loan by a good business and well managed ~> good for investors...
2. a loan being serviced by improving revenue, profit and eps ~> good for investors...

plus points for TWS...
1. crude oil up = palm oil up = food up = TWS up...
2. crude oil up = inflation up = food up = TWS up....

...if my call is wrong...then i am wrong...no hearts feeling...

Friday, February 25, 2011

Regional green...bursa red!

haha..wanna see proofs how syndicate manipulate stocks?...just see today's close...our neigbouring Asian bourses closed red...bursa also closed red....but funny..today other bourses closed green...bursa decided to closed in red...haha...what a joke...

one more..this morning tertengok 1 funny trade....KKB...haha...since open 9a.m trade just around price range 2.06 to 2.07...11.18am at 2.06...suddenly next trade at 11.20am...one joker jumped buy queue....that fella bought 3427 mini lot...aka 342,700 unit (342 big lot) at...rm2.50 per unit!!! crazy!!! tak kan salah tekan order kot?!....cuba kira brapa nilai transanction?...lebih drpd rm856k...in one go....jump drpd 2.06 ke 2.50....perghh!!! lompat 44 sen...tp lepas tu..trade gradually turun balik till closed at 2.08...

mgkin kah...this is insider trading?....somebody who know something good is waiting around the corner?...or...look at KKB chart ari ni....you'll see...a long inverted white hammer!...kesan ke atas TA...

1. broke resistance at 2.24 ~>bullish
2. MACD...forming round bottom ~> bullish
3. MACD line...blue line reversing up...~>bullish
4. ADIX...+DI pointing north...-DI pointing south....possible new uptrend ~> bullish

....haha..dont misjudge me...i do have KKB...so if price climb afterwards...me untung too...this is just to drive a point....any stocks is opened to syndicate manipulation...it's just so happen that KKB has fundamental strength...KKB price currently at future PE of only 4.89...with minimum tgt eps at 5 sen (discounted for 4qtr FY2010, due in feb 2011)...KKB has Fair value of rm4.29...heck, give further discount to a TP of 3.oo...watdayaget? at current price of 2.08...still got room almost rm1.00..or upside of 50%...simple math... perhaps, KKB just needs some electric jolts to push it up....

which brings us to driving the main point....sometimes, manipulation is good...at other times, manipulation is destructively misleading...most importantly, every Dick, Tom and Harry knows...that our bursa malaysia is being manipulated...so why do we still stubbonly stay invested in bursa?...simple: high risk equals to high gain...otherwise, we have to park our money in FD or ASB...

enjoy this weekend...

wat a green morning...

bursa is bullish in morning session...perhaps on notes that bursa went into deepest red for the past 2 days...bursa also goes up in line with regional asian bourses...at the moment, bursa is fighting to stay above 1490...

now, time to watch in afternoon session...good luck everyone...

middle east issue cause further panic selling...

bursa closed 1489 pts, yesterday...down almost 25 pts on 2nd day of huge selling...the day before...more than 900 cntrs down..yesterday also close to 900 cntrs down..huge selling everywhere...today is friday...so chances are..more down today...

wat to do? everybody is taking a tumble...i am also stuck inside...as of yesterday, my portfolio is in red..at 3% loss..a couple thousands of paper loss...sh*t does happen every now and then...

and..all of this is becoz of the conflict in the middle east...and especially after Gaddafi vowed to fight until his death...to stay in power...and refusing people's liberation in Libya...

now, there are talks of military intervention...to stabilise crude oil...which at the moment alredi risen to more than USD100 perbarrel..

i am praying that FBM stays above close support line 1495pts from today and next week...failure to do so...will see FBM sink further...with more rounds of panic selling...

Points to ponder...if results are good...and better prospects are seen in march and april...then wat is the basis of this correction?...the answer is FEAR....

people or funds holding cash right now is waiting to jump in when bursa found its bottom...as for me...i will not run....i choose to hold my portfolio since the paper loss is still contained...now, i must bear my eyes seeing red...i believe bull will come back soon...why?...bcos the market have been down for more than 1 month alredi....since 17 january 2011 until today....i still remember the bull rush in early january 2011...tat was the last bull before the current correction...

bottom line...keep faith on the upside...but watch out for the downside...anything is possible at the moment...

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

bursa deep red...caught us by surprise

pd pkl 4.30 ptg....over 80 ctrs green...over 900 ctrs red!!!...gila!!!...terpijak periuk api tengah jalan....not sure wat happen....but opportunity for those with money...hoping for a better tomoro...

...as for saag...saw people selling at 0.110 and 0.115...support broken....i have bearish sentimen...cutloss saag 50%...keep balance units 50%...looks like game over?! have to wait for further move at today'c close and tomoro...