Bursa...glimmer of hope?

on wednesday morning (2 feb 2011)...the reddest day since peak..i've taken some measure to protect profit...

_________AVP______SOLD_________CALL
1. DRB..........1.718.............1.83......................Protect Profit (2nd round)
2. KKB..........2.01..............2.06.....................Protect Profit (2nd round)
3. TWS..........7.74.............8.08.......................Protect Profit


and...re-accumulate on thursday...

1. DRB......AVP1.74

i think...tomoro and next week will be a good week to accumulate fundamental stocks at a good discount...

but need to be careful...as bearish sentiment still around....

my 2011 portfolio of rm97K...now at RM98K...realised gain in january is down to rm1K...staring unrealised paper loss of rm3.5K....invested capital at rm44K and now cash at hand at RM54K...

Bursa...broke support at 1494 and getting bloodier...

menakutkan!!!...well, wat can i say....this monday morning, bursa has broken support at 1494...and now trading at 1478 pts...u can expect tougher times ahead....for ur info, bursa had massive selling for the past 4 days in a row since 22 februari 2011....today is the 5th day...and looks like another big sale in the making....

...everybody is taken a surprise since regional was up in the previous week closing on friday....in the type of shakeout, even good fundamental stocks have to take some beating....i am not running...i am staying....on the reason that bursa has gone into oversold territory....

but just as a reminder....at current 1478 pts....bursa has broken 100MA support line....and thus the next support is at 1458 pts....and finally 1440 pts at 200MA support line....

...this tough time separates between the boys and the men....i still believe that this tough time will pass on....all the best to everyone...

Regional green...bursa red!

haha..wanna see proofs how syndicate manipulate stocks?...just see today's close...our neigbouring Asian bourses closed red...bursa also closed red....but funny..today other bourses closed green...bursa decided to closed in red...haha...what a joke...

one more..this morning tertengok 1 funny trade....KKB...haha...since open 9a.m trade just around price range 2.06 to 2.07...11.18am at 2.06...suddenly next trade at 11.20am...one joker jumped buy queue....that fella bought 3427 mini lot...aka 342,700 unit (342 big lot) at...rm2.50 per unit!!! crazy!!! tak kan salah tekan order kot?!....cuba kira brapa nilai transanction?...lebih drpd rm856k...in one go....jump drpd 2.06 ke 2.50....perghh!!! lompat 44 sen...tp lepas tu..trade gradually turun balik till closed at 2.08...

mgkin kah...this is insider trading?....somebody who know something good is waiting around the corner?...or...look at KKB chart ari ni....you'll see...a long inverted white hammer!...kesan ke atas TA...

1. broke resistance at 2.24 ~>bullish
2. MACD...forming round bottom ~> bullish
3. MACD line...blue line reversing up...~>bullish
4. ADIX...+DI pointing north...-DI pointing south....possible new uptrend ~> bullish

....haha..dont misjudge me...i do have KKB...so if price climb afterwards...me untung too...this is just to drive a point....any stocks is opened to syndicate manipulation...it's just so happen that KKB has fundamental strength...KKB price currently at future PE of only 4.89...with minimum tgt eps at 5 sen (discounted for 4qtr FY2010, due in feb 2011)...KKB has Fair value of rm4.29...heck, give further discount to a TP of 3.oo...watdayaget? at current price of 2.08...still got room almost rm1.00..or upside of 50%...simple math... perhaps, KKB just needs some electric jolts to push it up....

which brings us to driving the main point....sometimes, manipulation is good...at other times, manipulation is destructively misleading...most importantly, every Dick, Tom and Harry knows...that our bursa malaysia is being manipulated...so why do we still stubbonly stay invested in bursa?...simple: high risk equals to high gain...otherwise, we have to park our money in FD or ASB...

enjoy this weekend...

wat a green morning...

bursa is bullish in morning session...perhaps on notes that bursa went into deepest red for the past 2 days...bursa also goes up in line with regional asian bourses...at the moment, bursa is fighting to stay above 1490...

now, time to watch in afternoon session...good luck everyone...

middle east issue cause further panic selling...

bursa closed 1489 pts, yesterday...down almost 25 pts on 2nd day of huge selling...the day before...more than 900 cntrs down..yesterday also close to 900 cntrs down..huge selling everywhere...today is friday...so chances are..more down today...

wat to do? everybody is taking a tumble...i am also stuck inside...as of yesterday, my portfolio is in red..at 3% loss..a couple thousands of paper loss...sh*t does happen every now and then...

and..all of this is becoz of the conflict in the middle east...and especially after Gaddafi vowed to fight until his death...to stay in power...and refusing people's liberation in Libya...

now, there are talks of military intervention...to stabilise crude oil...which at the moment alredi risen to more than USD100 perbarrel..

i am praying that FBM stays above close support line 1495pts from today and next week...failure to do so...will see FBM sink further...with more rounds of panic selling...

Points to ponder...if results are good...and better prospects are seen in march and april...then wat is the basis of this correction?...the answer is FEAR....

people or funds holding cash right now is waiting to jump in when bursa found its bottom...as for me...i will not run....i choose to hold my portfolio since the paper loss is still contained...now, i must bear my eyes seeing red...i believe bull will come back soon...why?...bcos the market have been down for more than 1 month alredi....since 17 january 2011 until today....i still remember the bull rush in early january 2011...tat was the last bull before the current correction...

bottom line...keep faith on the upside...but watch out for the downside...anything is possible at the moment...

bursa closed higher 1525 pts...

hmm looks like bursa crossing into bullish zone (crossing 50% RSI line)..notice also MACD forming bottom...MACD blue line is crossing red line...volume increasing yesterday and today...index closed green for the 5th day alredi...the signs are showing the start of a bull...how long can it run? dunno la...but hey...still not in overbought...plenty of upside....suspect more to come...

my 3 stars in the making...and hopefully stay that way is coastal, mitra and tws...today closed at 3.690, 2.130 & 8.100....what else can i say...am a proud daddy...

meanwhile, ramunia still stubborn to move...AGM on last friday...declared free of debt!!! good sign...bcos the same reason ramunia got into PN17....my faith in ramunia is still strong despite price staying between 0.68 to 0.69...well based on calculation..fair value at PE10 is rm1.04....still long way to go...

now, my obvious concern saag!!!...this little b**stard is losing volume...the price still hovering about support line at 0.115...if this support is broken...imagine wat happen?! why people are dumping it at 0.120 and 0.125???? wait for 4qtr report....u see if score 0.3 sen eps then Fairvalue is rm0.150 only...but if score 0.7 sen...fair value at rm0.190...this is minimum at PE10...saag used to be goreng until over PE20...now...the real issue...wat to do???

there is always time to retreat...but should i make full retreat or half retreat?...honestly..saag's chart looks ugly...can saag price hold above 0.115?...at this moment...i am seeing tougher time for saag...thus i shall cutloss 50% of saag from tomoro...i shall keep another half and see wat happen next....if volume and price recover...i shall come back in later...

wahhhh!!! bull is coming?!?!?

bullish friday....morning session mcm x gerak...but by lunch kasi sign utk gerak....ptg closed in green...harap bullish rebound ni berterusan mggu depan...

semasa ribut merah, portfolio mampu bertahan....alhamdullillah, after days of averaging and buying, now, portfolio aku pun dlm hijau gak...these are the counters i'm holding at the moment...


Counters AVP last closed

1. coastal 2.400 2.610
2. cscsteel 1.748 1.810
3. drbhicom 1.717 2.160
4. kkb 2.010 2.120
5. mbmr 3.318 3.300
6. mitra 1.963 1.990
7. naim 3.655 3.740
8. tws 7.740 7.820
9. ramunia 0.690 0.670
10. saag 0.140 0.125


...total capital has grown to RM97,720.99...harap bull slps CNY ni akan take my capital to a new level...


klu semua bjalan ikut plan...now is the time to wait for the bapak bull...later, can sell...

Bursa down again..closed 1493 pts... :( *sigh*

aku expect atleast benteng 1500 x pecah...now pecah already....takut next monday terus koyak....wat's happening to bursa??? dunia naik, bursa turun...dunia turun, bursa lagi turun daa..bursa kena period sampai bila daa???

aku no more capital...100% invested...of closing this afternoon, total portfolio paper loss....-rm69....the worst counter rugi dalam portfolio is RM900...but di imbang oleh kaunter2 untung....dan blum ada kaunter yg perlu cutloss....

aku rs sale khamis dan jumaat ni mcm xda asas jer....maybe just irrational panic sell...if that is so..then the wise things is to buy more if got extra cash....can get good counter at huge discount...especially klu mggu depan pun sale gak...

aiyoo...mlm ni ke cari kot2 ada extra cash bawah tilam...haha...

Bursa 1503...jitters and black swan

thursday...bursa closed with a big red note...down 32pts (2%)...the worst in our region...120 green, 750 red, 220 white...tat is a lot of red...and...the reasons??? well a lot of people are dumbfounded....why yesterday???? is it bcos..

1. China rate hike?
2. US employment report?
3. Escalating rioting issue is Eygpt?
4. news of religious clash in Indonesia?

too many bads news sending jitters...stocks in my portfolio also ended in red...but luckily...most were above their AVP...i hope today market ends better...with a green note...perhaps yesterday was just a black swan tragedy cum opportunity...those who bought yesterday might smile today...

but i suspect morning sessi starts with mild red before turning mild green...so, let's pray bursa closes stronger in green and stays above 1500...if not then we'll see huge waves of red sea...

bull charging after CNY...

bulls are back...but tomoro (today) is wednesday...3rd day of rise since the last trading day before CNY...aka pd ari makan besar...

so...possible that wednesday akn fall down due to T+3 effect in the afternoon...so if got push morning...petang akan jatuh....do monitor from time to time on wednesday...

my portfolio starts to turn around...like KKB, TWS and CSCsteel...star performers especially DRBHicom and Mitra...DRBHicom AVP now at 1.717 after accumulate at 1.98, 1.92, 1.95....Mitra AVP now at 1.963 after accumulate at 2.01, 1.84...MBMR AVP at 3.318 after accumulate at 3.19...the rest are currently in HOLD position...

with little than 3k capital left...go for penny or warrant...

Happy CNY 2011 - Rabbit yr..full speed ahead

CNY today...yesterday bursa half day till 12.30 only..closed early for makan besar...today public holiday ler...

based on strong closed yesterday...market seems like poised for a 'spring' start after CNY is over...and i assume stronger after Cap Go Meh...hungry ghost = hungry traders/investors... :)

hoping...slps CNY holiday still got time to accumulate cheap..as most counters has shown signs of moving up...

prior to CNY..penny stocks dominate majority active list...keep watching these penny stocks...

1. HWGB (tin mining) ~> 0.905
2. Jotech (metal press and diversified) ~> 0.145
3. Saag (O&G engineering) ~> 0.130

Basing on just TA...
1. HWGB... alredi rocketed...wait for consolidation if want to enter...
2. Jotech...first peak done...consolidate then rebounded...and now broke ceiling 0.14...closed at 0.145 yesterday...with stronger volume, stronger price upward movemnt seen...cup and handle formation...but big question is....wat the TP??? how far can it go???
3. Saag...is making a huge comeback from bottom....bottom sealed at 0.09...rocketted to touch first peak 0.15 before consolidate to 0.12...but yesterday closed at 0.13 with stronger buying volume...also noted cup and handle formation...

Basing on just TA again...if i got 10K of capital...i might go for Jotech (50%) and Saag (50%) on a few reasons...
1. Increasing Volume and Price (for the past 3 days)...might want to wait for 2 more days after CNY to see the trend (but it might be too late to enter by then?)...
2. Both had formed 1st peak....just finished consolidation and rebounding up...to reach 2nd peak (donno where)...so until 2nd peak is formed still got the upward potential...
3. RSI still not in overbought..MACD looks bullish...
4. No signs of 'Game Over' yet for these 2 counters...

Commodity (metal, coal & crude oil) is on the rise at the moment...so potential is there...but....do remember this is more of a TECHNICAL PLAY...so
1. Quick in and Quick out...
2. Set Cutloss...
3. Watchout for sudden SELLOUT...

Again..Happy CNY...enjoy ur holidays...

**Reminder: this is not suggesting tat the readers should buy the above counters...do watchout for the risks involved...risiko sendirian berhad...

Bursa Update

mggu lps international dan regional market ended in red...bursa dah masuk oversold dan nmpk cam ready nak u-turn slps hampir reach support area at 1500 pts...now almost all counters look ready for engine restart....but kena consider..

31 January ~> one trading day
1 feb ~> cuti hari wilayah
2 feb ~> half day trading??? sblm close utk makan besar pre-CNY...

so...1 and 1/2 day of trading...maybe trading volume akn turun dan price akn stagnant???

since last thursay and friday...wallap some shares into custody....klu tomoro down maybe bleh collect lagi...3 counters involved in trading BUY...DRBHicom, Mitra dan MBMR....lelain letak dalam HOLD...baki capital to shoot dah x byk...only 17K...

expecting turn around by mid feb aka after CNY....

Bursa - Final week before CNY...

miggu ni adalah miggu last sblm long holiday CNY 2011 the yr of Rabbit...CNY2010 yr of Tiger, bursa down sblm CNY pastu back into buying mood after CNY...kali ni Yr Rabbit rsnya akan berulang pattern sama...but as i noticed...if January bursa up..then Feb and March akn down...let's us see whether the same pattern will b repeated...

if Feb and March down, then opportunity to buy hanya kpd those with capital...so might be wise to keep spare bullet...shall we say between 20% to 50%...

so my strategy this time for CNY rabbit 2011...

1. buy on the last 2 days before CNY...
2. buy more after CNY...especially if RSI is showing undervalued
3. concentrate on my current portfolio...
4. swap from laggards to active...
5. keep the profitable ones or add up more if necessary
6. keep minium capital of 20% for spare bullet...

my reason...simple...in a worst case scenario, i believe there will be a 2nd wave of bull rally...after CNY...where it will be the chance to lock profit...and recover our losses....then after...bear season will come somewhere near end of Feb..goin into march and possibly into April...Bull should come back by May 2011 and charges forward on....

whatever will be...the choice of our stocks will determine whether portfolio stay stagnant or charges ahead....

Bursa - Bulls are out for holidays... : (

Nmpknya bull dah start balik kampg...bear plak dah mula masuk bursa mulai smlm...yesttrday lebih 700 kaunter dlm merah...ari ni aku jangka volume start slow...dan pagi ni rs bursa cam x gerak...same goes with portfolio...cam frozen...

lock profit for yesterday and today...throw some share cam KKB...DRBH-cc...mitra...but keep profit of the 'free units'...so still got balance units in custody..including DRBH mother...will get back later...

TWS kena huge pullback....now down at area 7.70...Naim too but not that much...but since election is near...plus got relation with Dayang (60% owned by Naim)...plus Dayang proposal of bonus issue...plus Dayang may got contract from shell and now petronas...Naim got huge potential...

personally, aku rs portfolio pre-CNY strong...cuma cabaran kuat sbb beruang dah mula masuk...one thing aku notice...klu Januari mula strong, feb akn ada minor correction...so nothing wrong of being cautious...if stay invested, do keep some bullet for later use...

Pre-CNY portfolio...

2 mggu lebih lagi sblm Chinese New Year...made some adjustment to weed out laggard/loser....retain/hold and shoot new potential...adjustment made aftr sale of 60% DRBHicom (at rm 2.21 aka after peak)..

HOLDING:
1. CSCsteel...enjin blum start..donno when? Hope, soon...
2. DRBH...having 40% (mcm dapat free..coz alreadi took out original capital)...but now DRB facing tough time...now down to 2.03...will enter back...klu dah establish landing base...i'm seeing around 1.90 to 2.00...
3. DRBH-CC...thinking of let go some...to catch mother...no decision yet...long term still good to hold as mother TP2.50...
4. KKB..doing some minor correction...support strong at 2.00...good time to average up soon..once found base...
5. MBMR...still not moving...base around 3.30...if base hold...akn rebound up...sooner or later...might be wise to ave down further...get more lots before too late...

CUT OFF:
1. TopGlove...bye,bye...sayonara for now...sakit hati...rubber prices still stubborn....eats up profit....may affact atleast 2 qtrs...qtr 3 and 4 baru leh nmpk stabilising...took the money and shoot better counter...

NEW ADDITION (in these 2 weeks)...
1. Mitra...entered last friday..when rebound and touched 1.78...so AVP 1.78..for now...today 10% paper profit....Fair Value 4.00...close TP 3.00 enuff said...
2. Naim...entered last week..AVP 3.68...still accumulating...Fair Value around 4.00 also...but speculative play might push highter to PE15 at rm5.00...
3. TWS...basic food counter...sugar, rice & palm cooking oil...finish accumulate...now wait to reach TP...entered in stages...AVP7.75...with TP close at rm9.00....but wait...Fair Value at PE10 = rm11.00 !!!!...

Bursa steady on increase...might see some profit taking prior to CNY...maybe next week??? Preparing to get back some capital....letting the winner run and keep the 'free of charge' units...after CNY, market will move forward...Tat's is for sure...

Bursa 1563pts - red on negative regional performance...

tutup merah...on profit taking...guess wat, people dah expect profit taking mmgu ni..just tak sgka akn jd on monday 10th....

1st week dok ckp psl bull...now sentimen not so good...evrybodi talk like doomsday knocking on door!!!..pelik,pelik....same people who talk about the year of leaps and bounds...la ni dok cakap psl lariiiii....why perception brubah in less than 1 week???? tat is human emotion...

1st week was just baby bull...believe it or not, the same happen last year during the gloves 'gold rush'.....wat happen after the early year mild correction....market goes up....

yes...correction is healthy....the weak ones take some burn....the smart ones sell half to prepare bullet...the rich fellow will bring in reinforcement (capital)...

yes..follow the trend....but do not kill your golden goose...hope this correction is just a small bruise...good luck evryone...

Bursa - 1572 pts...New year, New High

bursa tutup mingg1 dgn green bullish....more people happy....but next week camna plak?..friday green...so kmgkinan moday akn green jgk selagi bullish mode masih on....but profit taking possible jgak minggu depan....

congrats to those who make money....sapa masih blum untung, mgkn ada something wrong...sbb now bursa dlm bull mode....beli apa saja bleh wat duit...the real test of man come in bear season...

points to consider...top 10 volume nmpknya d monopoli 'super coma' penny stock....penny sudah mau bangkit...cth

1. saag
2. compugt
3. hubline
4. ircb...etc

but...wat will come next? tema-tema 2011 utk d perhatikan...

1. O&G product/servis...catalyst...crude oil dok naik
2. Sawit Plantation....catalyst...palm oil tgh naik & cuaca
3. Consumer food...catalyst...rise of living expenses (inflation)...rice,sugar, cooking oil...

Turning into Green Hulk....

opppss...bursa ended green....more bull tomoro....now getting more and more interesting...must be very careful....do not get caught offguard...

more happy people....haha

Bursa - RED in morning session...

bursa kena kad merah pagi nih...nampaknya pergerakan mula dgn FBM30 (big boys aka 1st liner)....

pagi nih big boys kena red card..haha..tp 3rd liner aka cap ayam nmpk aktif....top 30 volume utk sesi pagi penuh dgn penny stock under rm1.00....

next 2nd liner punya turn utk aktif ka? wait and see....

Bursa-Bateri masih kuat, wooo!

masih dlm bullish mood...many happy faces, traders and investors alike....haha...wait till bear season...muka masam jer...

check out E&O !....cilakuih, penat aku tunggu....bila aku jual, enko naik menyacak yer???? haha....win some, lose some...aku just break-even dgn E&O...

other counters will make profit...thats for sure....wats up with KKB??? let's see...Fair Value = rm4.70!!!....calculated basing on projected eps lah...plus election theme in play? plus...directors accumulating....it is a triple combo!!! klu EPF atau PNB kumpul or kuar any good news....bleh jd super combo...

today is a wonderful day....:)

(added later) p/s: if at future PE10 = 4.70 too much...just discount to TP3.00... still look delicious...hope can arrive soon