April 2011....One month after last Bear season....

A month ago decided...to keep quiet from blog....during last bear in February and March....kept averaging and holding....and kept quiet...total silence.... This is my latest portfolio... Ctrs______AVP__Current Price__Gain/Loss (%)____Notes Coastal ___2.51___ 3.50_______ 39.44 ____sold 50% batch @3.49 yesterday CSCsteel ___1.74 ___1.74_______ 0.00________ coma!!! dead fish...HOLD DRBHicom __1.88___ 2.48 _______31.91_____reaccumulate during last feb/march bear MBMR ____3.318 __3.03______ -8.08 _________still not moving!..accumulate more??? Mitra _____1.988 __2.42 _______21.73_________still HOLD for bonus plan... Naim _____3.655 __3.11_______ -14.91_____ worst hit ctr...but worth to accumulate?? Ramunia ___0.613 ___0.610 _____-0.49 ______HOLD to TP1.00 TimeCom __0.808___ 0.865_____ 7.05________HOLD to TP0.90 -TP1.00 So, conclusion...have total 8 ctrs in pocket...4 winners (3 above 25% and 1 above 5%)...2 losers (above -8%)...while 2 comas (ramunia and CSCsteel)....I think Ramunia will move soon but CSCsteel have to wait for 'Dividen Play' around May 2011 cos proposed dividen coming on June... This April got 2 things goin on.... 1. O&G theme play...pchem, perisai, kencana etc...petronas related all go... 2. InvestMalaysia on 14th April....the year before (2010)...bear season return just before InvestMalysia....will it be the same this year???

Bursa...glimmer of hope?

on wednesday morning (2 feb 2011)...the reddest day since peak..i've taken some measure to protect profit...

_________AVP______SOLD_________CALL
1. DRB..........1.718.............1.83......................Protect Profit (2nd round)
2. KKB..........2.01..............2.06.....................Protect Profit (2nd round)
3. TWS..........7.74.............8.08.......................Protect Profit


and...re-accumulate on thursday...

1. DRB......AVP1.74

i think...tomoro and next week will be a good week to accumulate fundamental stocks at a good discount...

but need to be careful...as bearish sentiment still around....

my 2011 portfolio of rm97K...now at RM98K...realised gain in january is down to rm1K...staring unrealised paper loss of rm3.5K....invested capital at rm44K and now cash at hand at RM54K...

bursa closed higher 1525 pts...

hmm looks like bursa crossing into bullish zone (crossing 50% RSI line)..notice also MACD forming bottom...MACD blue line is crossing red line...volume increasing yesterday and today...index closed green for the 5th day alredi...the signs are showing the start of a bull...how long can it run? dunno la...but hey...still not in overbought...plenty of upside....suspect more to come...

my 3 stars in the making...and hopefully stay that way is coastal, mitra and tws...today closed at 3.690, 2.130 & 8.100....what else can i say...am a proud daddy...

meanwhile, ramunia still stubborn to move...AGM on last friday...declared free of debt!!! good sign...bcos the same reason ramunia got into PN17....my faith in ramunia is still strong despite price staying between 0.68 to 0.69...well based on calculation..fair value at PE10 is rm1.04....still long way to go...

now, my obvious concern saag!!!...this little b**stard is losing volume...the price still hovering about support line at 0.115...if this support is broken...imagine wat happen?! why people are dumping it at 0.120 and 0.125???? wait for 4qtr report....u see if score 0.3 sen eps then Fairvalue is rm0.150 only...but if score 0.7 sen...fair value at rm0.190...this is minimum at PE10...saag used to be goreng until over PE20...now...the real issue...wat to do???

there is always time to retreat...but should i make full retreat or half retreat?...honestly..saag's chart looks ugly...can saag price hold above 0.115?...at this moment...i am seeing tougher time for saag...thus i shall cutloss 50% of saag from tomoro...i shall keep another half and see wat happen next....if volume and price recover...i shall come back in later...

wahhhh!!! bull is coming?!?!?

bullish friday....morning session mcm x gerak...but by lunch kasi sign utk gerak....ptg closed in green...harap bullish rebound ni berterusan mggu depan...

semasa ribut merah, portfolio mampu bertahan....alhamdullillah, after days of averaging and buying, now, portfolio aku pun dlm hijau gak...these are the counters i'm holding at the moment...


Counters AVP last closed

1. coastal 2.400 2.610
2. cscsteel 1.748 1.810
3. drbhicom 1.717 2.160
4. kkb 2.010 2.120
5. mbmr 3.318 3.300
6. mitra 1.963 1.990
7. naim 3.655 3.740
8. tws 7.740 7.820
9. ramunia 0.690 0.670
10. saag 0.140 0.125


...total capital has grown to RM97,720.99...harap bull slps CNY ni akan take my capital to a new level...


klu semua bjalan ikut plan...now is the time to wait for the bapak bull...later, can sell...

Bursa down again..closed 1493 pts... :( *sigh*

aku expect atleast benteng 1500 x pecah...now pecah already....takut next monday terus koyak....wat's happening to bursa??? dunia naik, bursa turun...dunia turun, bursa lagi turun daa..bursa kena period sampai bila daa???

aku no more capital...100% invested...of closing this afternoon, total portfolio paper loss....-rm69....the worst counter rugi dalam portfolio is RM900...but di imbang oleh kaunter2 untung....dan blum ada kaunter yg perlu cutloss....

aku rs sale khamis dan jumaat ni mcm xda asas jer....maybe just irrational panic sell...if that is so..then the wise things is to buy more if got extra cash....can get good counter at huge discount...especially klu mggu depan pun sale gak...

aiyoo...mlm ni ke cari kot2 ada extra cash bawah tilam...haha...

Pre-CNY portfolio...

2 mggu lebih lagi sblm Chinese New Year...made some adjustment to weed out laggard/loser....retain/hold and shoot new potential...adjustment made aftr sale of 60% DRBHicom (at rm 2.21 aka after peak)..

HOLDING:
1. CSCsteel...enjin blum start..donno when? Hope, soon...
2. DRBH...having 40% (mcm dapat free..coz alreadi took out original capital)...but now DRB facing tough time...now down to 2.03...will enter back...klu dah establish landing base...i'm seeing around 1.90 to 2.00...
3. DRBH-CC...thinking of let go some...to catch mother...no decision yet...long term still good to hold as mother TP2.50...
4. KKB..doing some minor correction...support strong at 2.00...good time to average up soon..once found base...
5. MBMR...still not moving...base around 3.30...if base hold...akn rebound up...sooner or later...might be wise to ave down further...get more lots before too late...

CUT OFF:
1. TopGlove...bye,bye...sayonara for now...sakit hati...rubber prices still stubborn....eats up profit....may affact atleast 2 qtrs...qtr 3 and 4 baru leh nmpk stabilising...took the money and shoot better counter...

NEW ADDITION (in these 2 weeks)...
1. Mitra...entered last friday..when rebound and touched 1.78...so AVP 1.78..for now...today 10% paper profit....Fair Value 4.00...close TP 3.00 enuff said...
2. Naim...entered last week..AVP 3.68...still accumulating...Fair Value around 4.00 also...but speculative play might push highter to PE15 at rm5.00...
3. TWS...basic food counter...sugar, rice & palm cooking oil...finish accumulate...now wait to reach TP...entered in stages...AVP7.75...with TP close at rm9.00....but wait...Fair Value at PE10 = rm11.00 !!!!...

Bursa steady on increase...might see some profit taking prior to CNY...maybe next week??? Preparing to get back some capital....letting the winner run and keep the 'free of charge' units...after CNY, market will move forward...Tat's is for sure...

Bursa - dr 1474 turun ke 1458

smlm close 1474 tp dah krg strength utk trus bullish...mulai pagi td spai ptg ni, bear msk padang...tutup 1458 on profit taking...

trpks let go 3A pagi td utk collect balik modal...cutloss sbb TA nmpk cam nak turun lagi...nmpk death cross (MACD)..buang pd 1.78..lps tu ptg, 3A trus junam...rugi 5%...

dgn rujuk ADIX....CSCsteel, DRB, E&O dan KKB nmpk akn mula climb slps ribut merah berakhir...keep or add into position bila2 sesuai...atau pilihan lain ialah letgo DRB, CSC & KKB in profit utk collect modal...

now, problem...MudaJaya...still no news psl tuduhan fraud...klu mother turun melepasi support 3.90...mgkn terpksa give CB..option out 1/2 dulu atau retreat 100%...add more CB klu support bleh hold...

aku harap bursa rebound esok ptg atau isnin depan...problem....trader close position esok & isnin biasanya kurang halatuju...ari ni punya jatuh dah kira agak dalam sbyk 16 pts dlm sari...magnitute hampir sama cam 19/05/2010 pre world cup ari tu...

praying for miracles from US, Europe, Japan & China mlm nie...if not...muntah darah mggu depan...

Portfolio - Sempena Merdeka

status terkini...slps dispose Scomi dan Kfima dgn untung..

1. 3A (hold)
2. CSCsteel (hold)
3. DRBhicom (hold)
4. KKB (hold)

cash level around 30%...

Portfolio: Bursa pecah 1400

Lps selesai dispose scomi...ni status terkini...

1. 3A (hold)
2. CSCsteel (hold)
3. DRBhicom (hold)
4. Kfima (Trail Stop)
5. KKB (hold)

kenapa hold?...because good stocks hard to come by...Kfima blum cecah trail stop...klu terpksa baru la jual...

dgn cash (from scomi dan 1st batch Kfima) bleh average down atau beli stock baru...