Bursa - Final week before CNY...

miggu ni adalah miggu last sblm long holiday CNY 2011 the yr of Rabbit...CNY2010 yr of Tiger, bursa down sblm CNY pastu back into buying mood after CNY...kali ni Yr Rabbit rsnya akan berulang pattern sama...but as i noticed...if January bursa up..then Feb and March akn down...let's us see whether the same pattern will b repeated...

if Feb and March down, then opportunity to buy hanya kpd those with capital...so might be wise to keep spare bullet...shall we say between 20% to 50%...

so my strategy this time for CNY rabbit 2011...

1. buy on the last 2 days before CNY...
2. buy more after CNY...especially if RSI is showing undervalued
3. concentrate on my current portfolio...
4. swap from laggards to active...
5. keep the profitable ones or add up more if necessary
6. keep minium capital of 20% for spare bullet...

my reason...simple...in a worst case scenario, i believe there will be a 2nd wave of bull rally...after CNY...where it will be the chance to lock profit...and recover our losses....then after...bear season will come somewhere near end of Feb..goin into march and possibly into April...Bull should come back by May 2011 and charges forward on....

whatever will be...the choice of our stocks will determine whether portfolio stay stagnant or charges ahead....

The 3 Golden Keys and 7 Arches of fortune...

This is to remind myself...so that i won't forget!

These are the 3 keys which could unlock immense wealth in stocktrading....

1. FA
2. Volume & Price
3. Theme

And...these are the 7 Arches of great fortune in playing warrant (by hedging against mother)...

1. Always buy warrants below their premium (in the money)...
2. Buy warrants when mother is up...
3. Sell warrant when the mother is down...
4. Do not buy warrant when it is close to expire date...
5. Smaller ratio = more power in price movement..
6. If right issue warrants....do not exercise
7. If Cash Settled Call Warrant....on expire, you win, if current price value higher than exercise value...you lose, if exercise value higher than current price value...

...study them carefully....

Recovery...too soon?

Dow recover balik lps down...Euro dan Asia jgk expect camtu...question is...nape recovery cepat sgt?...aku mgkn salah tp klu bursa pun recover cepat dlm sari dua ni, akn confirm kejatuhan lebih parah minggu2 hadapan...pengalaman lepas2, aku remember bursa selalu lag behind baik masa jatuh atau masa naik...

strategy aku...sell on strength...time to exit!

klu perlu cut loss, akn cut 50% dulu atas 2 alasan
1. to average down kemudian...atau
2. to buy new stock pd harga discount...

also...marked- 25 ogos 2010 sbg D-day confirm kejatuhan...2 kali washout...jatuh, rebound, jatuh...tempoh singkat T+6 (min= 7 ari)...tempoh panjang T+20 (mak= 21 ari)...pastu baru u-turn balik...hanya enter new position bila dah 'xda harapan' atau bila 'confirm u-turn'...

explanation = teori aku ni sama mcm 'W' formation, reverse head and shoulder, atau EW...cuma simplified version utk layman cam aku...xde dlm mana2 buku punya..haha...just my observation...

TA atau FA???

aku punya approach dlm saham ni adalah combination antara Fundamental dan Technical....or FA dan TA...mana mai dulu? mcm crita ayam dgn telur..based on experience, dua2 sama penting...

dulu hanya focus kat FA..fuhhh mmg hardwork...study financial report dan sbgnya...but sometimes terkena jugak sbb wrong entry....pastu guna TA plak...still terkena sbb pilih stock yg financialnya teruk..so slps tu aku decides nak gabung dua2...well, byk org cakap TA dan FA sgt berbeza sbb approach yg berbeza...aku stuju...that's why aku amik middle ground..amik the best from each approach...