bursa closed higher 1525 pts...

hmm looks like bursa crossing into bullish zone (crossing 50% RSI line)..notice also MACD forming bottom...MACD blue line is crossing red line...volume increasing yesterday and today...index closed green for the 5th day alredi...the signs are showing the start of a bull...how long can it run? dunno la...but hey...still not in overbought...plenty of upside....suspect more to come...

my 3 stars in the making...and hopefully stay that way is coastal, mitra and tws...today closed at 3.690, 2.130 & 8.100....what else can i say...am a proud daddy...

meanwhile, ramunia still stubborn to move...AGM on last friday...declared free of debt!!! good sign...bcos the same reason ramunia got into PN17....my faith in ramunia is still strong despite price staying between 0.68 to 0.69...well based on calculation..fair value at PE10 is rm1.04....still long way to go...

now, my obvious concern saag!!!...this little b**stard is losing volume...the price still hovering about support line at 0.115...if this support is broken...imagine wat happen?! why people are dumping it at 0.120 and 0.125???? wait for 4qtr report....u see if score 0.3 sen eps then Fairvalue is rm0.150 only...but if score 0.7 sen...fair value at rm0.190...this is minimum at PE10...saag used to be goreng until over PE20...now...the real issue...wat to do???

there is always time to retreat...but should i make full retreat or half retreat?...honestly..saag's chart looks ugly...can saag price hold above 0.115?...at this moment...i am seeing tougher time for saag...thus i shall cutloss 50% of saag from tomoro...i shall keep another half and see wat happen next....if volume and price recover...i shall come back in later...

wahhhh!!! bull is coming?!?!?

bullish friday....morning session mcm x gerak...but by lunch kasi sign utk gerak....ptg closed in green...harap bullish rebound ni berterusan mggu depan...

semasa ribut merah, portfolio mampu bertahan....alhamdullillah, after days of averaging and buying, now, portfolio aku pun dlm hijau gak...these are the counters i'm holding at the moment...


Counters AVP last closed

1. coastal 2.400 2.610
2. cscsteel 1.748 1.810
3. drbhicom 1.717 2.160
4. kkb 2.010 2.120
5. mbmr 3.318 3.300
6. mitra 1.963 1.990
7. naim 3.655 3.740
8. tws 7.740 7.820
9. ramunia 0.690 0.670
10. saag 0.140 0.125


...total capital has grown to RM97,720.99...harap bull slps CNY ni akan take my capital to a new level...


klu semua bjalan ikut plan...now is the time to wait for the bapak bull...later, can sell...

Bursa down again..closed 1493 pts... :( *sigh*

aku expect atleast benteng 1500 x pecah...now pecah already....takut next monday terus koyak....wat's happening to bursa??? dunia naik, bursa turun...dunia turun, bursa lagi turun daa..bursa kena period sampai bila daa???

aku no more capital...100% invested...of closing this afternoon, total portfolio paper loss....-rm69....the worst counter rugi dalam portfolio is RM900...but di imbang oleh kaunter2 untung....dan blum ada kaunter yg perlu cutloss....

aku rs sale khamis dan jumaat ni mcm xda asas jer....maybe just irrational panic sell...if that is so..then the wise things is to buy more if got extra cash....can get good counter at huge discount...especially klu mggu depan pun sale gak...

aiyoo...mlm ni ke cari kot2 ada extra cash bawah tilam...haha...

Bursa 1503...jitters and black swan

thursday...bursa closed with a big red note...down 32pts (2%)...the worst in our region...120 green, 750 red, 220 white...tat is a lot of red...and...the reasons??? well a lot of people are dumbfounded....why yesterday???? is it bcos..

1. China rate hike?
2. US employment report?
3. Escalating rioting issue is Eygpt?
4. news of religious clash in Indonesia?

too many bads news sending jitters...stocks in my portfolio also ended in red...but luckily...most were above their AVP...i hope today market ends better...with a green note...perhaps yesterday was just a black swan tragedy cum opportunity...those who bought yesterday might smile today...

but i suspect morning sessi starts with mild red before turning mild green...so, let's pray bursa closes stronger in green and stays above 1500...if not then we'll see huge waves of red sea...

CSCsteel 'pushdown' noted...

wednesday trading....noticing 'pushdown' being done to CSCsteel...every time price got past 1.77...then got push back to 1.75 or below..

method used by someone aka syndicate...sell 1 small lot at lower price...mind u, not big lot throw...hmmm, some big accumulation followed by pushdown....wat does it mean? I smell something good is coming...but donno wat...

also noted...increasing volume and price for the past 4 days...but volume wise not so significant...one thing for sure, CSCsteel has not been gorenged yet....holding a bit longer...

tgt EPS at 4 sen for feb 2011 (qtr 4 FY2010)...CSCsteel should end up at annualised EPS of around 20 sen...Fair Value estimated at rm2.03...if based on Book Value..then FV is rm2.09...if discounted further, then, rm1.90 is achievable as TP close...furthermore, the resistance also stand at 1.90....

bull charging after CNY...

bulls are back...but tomoro (today) is wednesday...3rd day of rise since the last trading day before CNY...aka pd ari makan besar...

so...possible that wednesday akn fall down due to T+3 effect in the afternoon...so if got push morning...petang akan jatuh....do monitor from time to time on wednesday...

my portfolio starts to turn around...like KKB, TWS and CSCsteel...star performers especially DRBHicom and Mitra...DRBHicom AVP now at 1.717 after accumulate at 1.98, 1.92, 1.95....Mitra AVP now at 1.963 after accumulate at 2.01, 1.84...MBMR AVP at 3.318 after accumulate at 3.19...the rest are currently in HOLD position...

with little than 3k capital left...go for penny or warrant...

Saag & Jotech rocks...

penny stocks fever.... :)..how long it could last...

saag and jotech inches upward...closed stronger volume and higher price...for tomoro let's add up into watchlist...

1. Saag
2. Jotech
3. Ramunia
4. Talam

...expecting Ramunia and Talam to get more volume tomoro...

also noted...taking profit morning session...then got afternoon push to close higher....the signs of a bull...

Happy CNY 2011 - Rabbit yr..full speed ahead

CNY today...yesterday bursa half day till 12.30 only..closed early for makan besar...today public holiday ler...

based on strong closed yesterday...market seems like poised for a 'spring' start after CNY is over...and i assume stronger after Cap Go Meh...hungry ghost = hungry traders/investors... :)

hoping...slps CNY holiday still got time to accumulate cheap..as most counters has shown signs of moving up...

prior to CNY..penny stocks dominate majority active list...keep watching these penny stocks...

1. HWGB (tin mining) ~> 0.905
2. Jotech (metal press and diversified) ~> 0.145
3. Saag (O&G engineering) ~> 0.130

Basing on just TA...
1. HWGB... alredi rocketed...wait for consolidation if want to enter...
2. Jotech...first peak done...consolidate then rebounded...and now broke ceiling 0.14...closed at 0.145 yesterday...with stronger volume, stronger price upward movemnt seen...cup and handle formation...but big question is....wat the TP??? how far can it go???
3. Saag...is making a huge comeback from bottom....bottom sealed at 0.09...rocketted to touch first peak 0.15 before consolidate to 0.12...but yesterday closed at 0.13 with stronger buying volume...also noted cup and handle formation...

Basing on just TA again...if i got 10K of capital...i might go for Jotech (50%) and Saag (50%) on a few reasons...
1. Increasing Volume and Price (for the past 3 days)...might want to wait for 2 more days after CNY to see the trend (but it might be too late to enter by then?)...
2. Both had formed 1st peak....just finished consolidation and rebounding up...to reach 2nd peak (donno where)...so until 2nd peak is formed still got the upward potential...
3. RSI still not in overbought..MACD looks bullish...
4. No signs of 'Game Over' yet for these 2 counters...

Commodity (metal, coal & crude oil) is on the rise at the moment...so potential is there...but....do remember this is more of a TECHNICAL PLAY...so
1. Quick in and Quick out...
2. Set Cutloss...
3. Watchout for sudden SELLOUT...

Again..Happy CNY...enjoy ur holidays...

**Reminder: this is not suggesting tat the readers should buy the above counters...do watchout for the risks involved...risiko sendirian berhad...

Bursa Update

mggu lps international dan regional market ended in red...bursa dah masuk oversold dan nmpk cam ready nak u-turn slps hampir reach support area at 1500 pts...now almost all counters look ready for engine restart....but kena consider..

31 January ~> one trading day
1 feb ~> cuti hari wilayah
2 feb ~> half day trading??? sblm close utk makan besar pre-CNY...

so...1 and 1/2 day of trading...maybe trading volume akn turun dan price akn stagnant???

since last thursay and friday...wallap some shares into custody....klu tomoro down maybe bleh collect lagi...3 counters involved in trading BUY...DRBHicom, Mitra dan MBMR....lelain letak dalam HOLD...baki capital to shoot dah x byk...only 17K...

expecting turn around by mid feb aka after CNY....

Bursa - Pre-CNY in deep red...

Bursa is taking a tumble...deep red within a few days of CNY...time like this put a strainous test on your emotion...luckily aku dah lock some profit...threw a few counter...keep some cash...

bear season almost reach peak now....after a few days of red...la ni waiting for the 'signs'....just like in the eye of storm...menunggu tgh mata ribut....usually calm and directionless...with low trading volume...and price seem like not moving...then, the best time for topup old or new shares....

for now...stay low....endure the storm...watch your ration (cash level)...

Bursa - Final week before CNY...

miggu ni adalah miggu last sblm long holiday CNY 2011 the yr of Rabbit...CNY2010 yr of Tiger, bursa down sblm CNY pastu back into buying mood after CNY...kali ni Yr Rabbit rsnya akan berulang pattern sama...but as i noticed...if January bursa up..then Feb and March akn down...let's us see whether the same pattern will b repeated...

if Feb and March down, then opportunity to buy hanya kpd those with capital...so might be wise to keep spare bullet...shall we say between 20% to 50%...

so my strategy this time for CNY rabbit 2011...

1. buy on the last 2 days before CNY...
2. buy more after CNY...especially if RSI is showing undervalued
3. concentrate on my current portfolio...
4. swap from laggards to active...
5. keep the profitable ones or add up more if necessary
6. keep minium capital of 20% for spare bullet...

my reason...simple...in a worst case scenario, i believe there will be a 2nd wave of bull rally...after CNY...where it will be the chance to lock profit...and recover our losses....then after...bear season will come somewhere near end of Feb..goin into march and possibly into April...Bull should come back by May 2011 and charges forward on....

whatever will be...the choice of our stocks will determine whether portfolio stay stagnant or charges ahead....

Harga Getah affects glove makers...

lucky me...made a decision to cut loss on topglove a few days ago...foresee a further downside of gloves...

td sembang dgn a friend of mine...he owned some small rubber estate...3 hari dpt rm3,000...dan price getah about rm7.15 p/kg...a month ago, bru rm6.30....wow! getah estate owner are laughing to the bank...

again trend ni akn meningkat selagi general election blum jalan...which means...if GE (PRU) mgkn dlm april atau may....bru getah akn stabilise...but d question is...bilanya harga getah akan turun....until that happens, i do not dare to enter....if buy gloves...maybe need to hold until next year utk comeback....if impatient enuf to enter...then do it bit by bit....either way is too risky...no guarantee bcos rubber price bites off a big chunck of gloves' profit....

FYE2011 utk gloves, will likely see...a HUGE reduction in...
1. revenue
2 profit margin
3. eps

but in contrast...a BALLOONING influx of trouble ahead in..
1. Cost (higher raw cost eg: rubber, fuel, forex exchange,transport...)
2. Debt (of new financing of machinery/factory..)

This will spell disaster..unless...gloves company can do something to counter masalah di atas...such as:
1. buy rubber estates...with trees ready to be tapped (no point of buying vacant land, bcos takes time to grow rubber tree)...
2. pass the cost to the consumer...
3. using new material to replace rubber latex (aka synthetic gloves???)

Complicated isnt it?...and all the argument above just proves one thing....gloves are in deep sh*t...and will remain so for several financial quaters....

bottom line is...for gloves counter....u can look but do not touch...

Mitra - Big Surprise!!!!

sapa sgka...mrkt x brapa sihat sbb people dok clear position...mitra plak wat surprise....anyway mitra proposed:

1. bonus issue (2:1)
2. warrants (8:1)
3. split 1 to 2...then baru kira bonus and warrant

too cut short...beli 4 lot mother...slps split mother (par 1.00 jd par 0.50)... jd 8 lot mother...dpt 4 lot bonus issue...dan dpt 1 lot warrant (expire 5 tahun).....should be around 50% profit...

tarikh akhir blum finalise..so expect mitra akan rally up melawan arus.... aku put Fair Value at rm4.00...CIMB put at 3.00...Alliance put at 2.00....well, ari ni tutup at 2.00...so based on today's close...

well harap support mitra akn kekal at minimum 1.80...sbb klu jatuh bawah rm2.00 adalah good sign to collect more...esok cuti Taipussam...lusa (friday) mitra akn roket...

Bursa - Bulls are out for holidays... : (

Nmpknya bull dah start balik kampg...bear plak dah mula masuk bursa mulai smlm...yesttrday lebih 700 kaunter dlm merah...ari ni aku jangka volume start slow...dan pagi ni rs bursa cam x gerak...same goes with portfolio...cam frozen...

lock profit for yesterday and today...throw some share cam KKB...DRBH-cc...mitra...but keep profit of the 'free units'...so still got balance units in custody..including DRBH mother...will get back later...

TWS kena huge pullback....now down at area 7.70...Naim too but not that much...but since election is near...plus got relation with Dayang (60% owned by Naim)...plus Dayang proposal of bonus issue...plus Dayang may got contract from shell and now petronas...Naim got huge potential...

personally, aku rs portfolio pre-CNY strong...cuma cabaran kuat sbb beruang dah mula masuk...one thing aku notice...klu Januari mula strong, feb akn ada minor correction...so nothing wrong of being cautious...if stay invested, do keep some bullet for later use...

Pre-CNY portfolio...

2 mggu lebih lagi sblm Chinese New Year...made some adjustment to weed out laggard/loser....retain/hold and shoot new potential...adjustment made aftr sale of 60% DRBHicom (at rm 2.21 aka after peak)..

HOLDING:
1. CSCsteel...enjin blum start..donno when? Hope, soon...
2. DRBH...having 40% (mcm dapat free..coz alreadi took out original capital)...but now DRB facing tough time...now down to 2.03...will enter back...klu dah establish landing base...i'm seeing around 1.90 to 2.00...
3. DRBH-CC...thinking of let go some...to catch mother...no decision yet...long term still good to hold as mother TP2.50...
4. KKB..doing some minor correction...support strong at 2.00...good time to average up soon..once found base...
5. MBMR...still not moving...base around 3.30...if base hold...akn rebound up...sooner or later...might be wise to ave down further...get more lots before too late...

CUT OFF:
1. TopGlove...bye,bye...sayonara for now...sakit hati...rubber prices still stubborn....eats up profit....may affact atleast 2 qtrs...qtr 3 and 4 baru leh nmpk stabilising...took the money and shoot better counter...

NEW ADDITION (in these 2 weeks)...
1. Mitra...entered last friday..when rebound and touched 1.78...so AVP 1.78..for now...today 10% paper profit....Fair Value 4.00...close TP 3.00 enuff said...
2. Naim...entered last week..AVP 3.68...still accumulating...Fair Value around 4.00 also...but speculative play might push highter to PE15 at rm5.00...
3. TWS...basic food counter...sugar, rice & palm cooking oil...finish accumulate...now wait to reach TP...entered in stages...AVP7.75...with TP close at rm9.00....but wait...Fair Value at PE10 = rm11.00 !!!!...

Bursa steady on increase...might see some profit taking prior to CNY...maybe next week??? Preparing to get back some capital....letting the winner run and keep the 'free of charge' units...after CNY, market will move forward...Tat's is for sure...

CSCsteel & TopGlove - re-evaluate situation....

CSCsteel jd laggard dlm portfolio...pergerakan harga sgt minima....mula hilang sabar nih...FA wise...look like making a comeback after 3 bulan downtrend...aiyoooo....this is the case of not locking profit!!!

TopGlove...on the other hand...bdepan cabaran besar...penurunan dollar dan peningkatan harga getah akibat cuaca dan permintaan...well...cannot blame others...masa beli dulu igt ka gloves nak wat turn around....this is the case of not doing cut loss!!!

so thinking of letting go....to collect bullet...to shoot other counters...at the moment, tgh dok aim kat 2 potential ctrs...with signs of uptrend...

KKB and MBMR shows signs of life...

KKB price mula bgerak...but volume blum ada...once volume mai, akn berjalan lancar...utk masa ni, still good to hold current position...masih awal utk pyramiding(average up)...looking for further signs..once break 2.20 mgkn volume/interest akan mai dgn kuat...masa tu akan masuk by half...TP masih kekal basing on FA...

MBMR...AVP la ni at 3.365 slps wat averaging down..closed ari ni in profit....with stronger volume...will do average up once uptrend movement is confirmed...but, first, kena break 3.45 dulu....TA wise showing potential uptrend on the way...TP masih kekal basing on FA...

DRBHicom - be strong....more to come...

amik kptusan to lock profit dlm DRBhicom...sold half...keep half...locked profit at 85% untung....

alasan jual...to protect profit...dan keep the rest...to fight on smpai TP2.50 (near)...and beyond spai TP3.50 (far)....lastly swap/anchor more dlm DRBH-CC ...now holding 10 big lot of CC and adding more....if reach 2.50...mother gain berkembang to morethan 100%....dan CC should be around 0.675...another 14% gain or more...

so...now, aku ada a king and a queen for the checkmate...

volume DRB akn come back...why? bcos FA wise...it is still undervalued....TA wise, traders tgh tunggu signal...support 2.20 masih strong....i think once break rm2.30...more people will jump on board...HwangDBS TP utk DRB at 3.55...

Bursa 1563pts - red on negative regional performance...

tutup merah...on profit taking...guess wat, people dah expect profit taking mmgu ni..just tak sgka akn jd on monday 10th....

1st week dok ckp psl bull...now sentimen not so good...evrybodi talk like doomsday knocking on door!!!..pelik,pelik....same people who talk about the year of leaps and bounds...la ni dok cakap psl lariiiii....why perception brubah in less than 1 week???? tat is human emotion...

1st week was just baby bull...believe it or not, the same happen last year during the gloves 'gold rush'.....wat happen after the early year mild correction....market goes up....

yes...correction is healthy....the weak ones take some burn....the smart ones sell half to prepare bullet...the rich fellow will bring in reinforcement (capital)...

yes..follow the trend....but do not kill your golden goose...hope this correction is just a small bruise...good luck evryone...

Bursa - 1572 pts...New year, New High

bursa tutup mingg1 dgn green bullish....more people happy....but next week camna plak?..friday green...so kmgkinan moday akn green jgk selagi bullish mode masih on....but profit taking possible jgak minggu depan....

congrats to those who make money....sapa masih blum untung, mgkn ada something wrong...sbb now bursa dlm bull mode....beli apa saja bleh wat duit...the real test of man come in bear season...

points to consider...top 10 volume nmpknya d monopoli 'super coma' penny stock....penny sudah mau bangkit...cth

1. saag
2. compugt
3. hubline
4. ircb...etc

but...wat will come next? tema-tema 2011 utk d perhatikan...

1. O&G product/servis...catalyst...crude oil dok naik
2. Sawit Plantation....catalyst...palm oil tgh naik & cuaca
3. Consumer food...catalyst...rise of living expenses (inflation)...rice,sugar, cooking oil...