TimeCom and Ramunia - further up next week?

• aiyoo..spoke too soon on TimeCom...TimeCom went up to 0.94 in morning session before slide down to close at 0.885...but good news is price has broken resistance at 0.880...meaning, there's a chance to move further...goreng just begin??? Technical wise....althought RSI oversold but ADIX shows stronger uptrend...but obviously has exceeded Fair Value....pure goreng play...

• Ramunia on the other hand...close to 0.645 after reach peak at 0.655 in morning session...sensing more upside next... TA wise...bullish signs all over the board...after broken resistance at 0.615...Ramunia may test next resistance up to 0.685... FA wise...Fair Value at 1.04 (PE10)...got O&G theme playing...and talks of projects from Petronas and rumours of strategic partnership...also dont forget....process of going out from PN17....in short, Ramunia has full package of a TNT...ready to explode...

TimeCom and Ramunia - on high turbo

woohoo!!!...my Ramunia and Timecom so bullish this friday morning....wat a goreng action...huge volume..i expect price to surge further if more volume come in today and next week...hopefully so.... Ctrs______AVP_______Current Price______Gain/Loss% Ramunia___0.613______0.645____________5.22% TimeCom__0.808______0.920____________13.86% *current price refers to price at 10.15a.m today.... Both were accumulated during bear in Feb and March 2011...now HOLD... later will SELL into strength....believe further upside....Ramunia TP1.01....TimeCOM also TP1.01...

TimeCom - further upside?

TimeCom had broken resistance at 0.880 on 7 April 2011 (yesterday)...and closed on 0.910...further upside is seen thru ADIX... entered on 9 March...profit at 12.61% roughly within 1 month...TP of 1.00 is very close...sell into strength...

April 2011....One month after last Bear season....

A month ago decided...to keep quiet from blog....during last bear in February and March....kept averaging and holding....and kept quiet...total silence.... This is my latest portfolio... Ctrs______AVP__Current Price__Gain/Loss (%)____Notes Coastal ___2.51___ 3.50_______ 39.44 ____sold 50% batch @3.49 yesterday CSCsteel ___1.74 ___1.74_______ 0.00________ coma!!! dead fish...HOLD DRBHicom __1.88___ 2.48 _______31.91_____reaccumulate during last feb/march bear MBMR ____3.318 __3.03______ -8.08 _________still not moving!..accumulate more??? Mitra _____1.988 __2.42 _______21.73_________still HOLD for bonus plan... Naim _____3.655 __3.11_______ -14.91_____ worst hit ctr...but worth to accumulate?? Ramunia ___0.613 ___0.610 _____-0.49 ______HOLD to TP1.00 TimeCom __0.808___ 0.865_____ 7.05________HOLD to TP0.90 -TP1.00 So, conclusion...have total 8 ctrs in pocket...4 winners (3 above 25% and 1 above 5%)...2 losers (above -8%)...while 2 comas (ramunia and CSCsteel)....I think Ramunia will move soon but CSCsteel have to wait for 'Dividen Play' around May 2011 cos proposed dividen coming on June... This April got 2 things goin on.... 1. O&G theme play...pchem, perisai, kencana etc...petronas related all go... 2. InvestMalaysia on 14th April....the year before (2010)...bear season return just before InvestMalysia....will it be the same this year???

Bursa...glimmer of hope?

on wednesday morning (2 feb 2011)...the reddest day since peak..i've taken some measure to protect profit...

_________AVP______SOLD_________CALL
1. DRB..........1.718.............1.83......................Protect Profit (2nd round)
2. KKB..........2.01..............2.06.....................Protect Profit (2nd round)
3. TWS..........7.74.............8.08.......................Protect Profit


and...re-accumulate on thursday...

1. DRB......AVP1.74

i think...tomoro and next week will be a good week to accumulate fundamental stocks at a good discount...

but need to be careful...as bearish sentiment still around....

my 2011 portfolio of rm97K...now at RM98K...realised gain in january is down to rm1K...staring unrealised paper loss of rm3.5K....invested capital at rm44K and now cash at hand at RM54K...

DRBHicom...on downtrend...

Yesterday was a lucky escape...during morning session at around 11 am...throw DRB at 1.83 (the last 8 big lot) ...reason being sensed negative sentiment plus DRB broke support at 1.90...

good news...fundamental still intact...so can re-start accumulate once solid base is formed later...

now, rm1.90 becomes the resistance..while support is as low as rm1.34...i'm thinking that area between 1.70 down to 1.50 is good area to start accumulate slowly...

Saag...4qtrs report is out for FY2010...danger!!!

4th qtr report is out on 28th feb 2011...

Qtr_______Rev_______Profit/Loss_______EPS
1qtr______12,793______4,895__________0.31
2nd______43,104______1,981__________0.11
3rd______23,623______13,541__________0.75
4th______39,641______(-29,834)________(-1.65)

this is the result of Saag for financial year 2010....

....look...on the whole we could see the revenue is improving quater on quater...but 4th qtr see a huge loss...why???? that is what i dont understand...

now, let's compare FY2008, FY2009 & FY2010...to see the trend...

FY ended_______Rev_______Profit/Loss_______EPS
2008_________542,130____30,545_________4.89
2009_________160,443____(-8,789)________(-1.03)
2010_________119,161____(-9,417)________(-0.52)

....scarry!!!..we could see declining revenue and declining profit...not good!...and EPS is still in negative....the company is at loss...

at first, i thought there's going to be a good turn around story bcos of good result from qtr1 to qtr 3....but...4th qtr FY2010 turn saag turnaround story into a mess!...look at FY2010...if revenue is up and shows good profit from qtr 1 to qtr 3...why suddenly registered a HUGE loss in qtr 4???? That...i dont understand....

but..this i do know....tomoro i have to say goodbye to saag...game over! I LOSE...

Bursa...broke support at 1494 and getting bloodier...

menakutkan!!!...well, wat can i say....this monday morning, bursa has broken support at 1494...and now trading at 1478 pts...u can expect tougher times ahead....for ur info, bursa had massive selling for the past 4 days in a row since 22 februari 2011....today is the 5th day...and looks like another big sale in the making....

...everybody is taken a surprise since regional was up in the previous week closing on friday....in the type of shakeout, even good fundamental stocks have to take some beating....i am not running...i am staying....on the reason that bursa has gone into oversold territory....

but just as a reminder....at current 1478 pts....bursa has broken 100MA support line....and thus the next support is at 1458 pts....and finally 1440 pts at 200MA support line....

...this tough time separates between the boys and the men....i still believe that this tough time will pass on....all the best to everyone...

Mitrajaya...appetizers for mitra holders...

announcement made on 25 february 2011...

**Remarks :
The Directors are recommending a first and final single tier cash dividend of 12% and a share dividend on the basis of one (1) treasury share for every twenty (20) existing ordinary shares of RM1.00 each held in the Company, fractions of treasury shares to be disregarded in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2010.**

checkout full report at bursa malaysia~> http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp

so...wat izzit all about??? in simple words, Mitra are giving more present to mitra holder before bonus issue....listen...

1. cash dividen of 12%...aka 12 sen...mitra's par at rm1.00...or if taxed at 28%, div is at 8 sen...yeppi!
2. share dividen...1 for every 20 units...aka...100 unit per 2,000 unit...simpler term...2 big lots, u get 100 units...20 big lot, u got 1 big lot....yeppi!

get this...1 for every 20 unite means u get about another rm0.05 pershare...plus that 8 sen cash dividen (after tax)...means u get 13 sen nett dividen pershare....at the stock price of rm2.00, u get a Dividen Yield of 6.5%....nice...

bear in mind...this is just an appetizer....remember we still got Bonus Issue, Free Warrants and Share Splits coming afterwards....

checkout my previous review on mitra ~> http://investorsplanet.blogspot.com/2011/01/mitra-big-surprise.html

i am seeing good prospect in near term for Mitra...

TWS...TP15.00 call by Alex

haha..tq very much alex..for promoting TWS....will be a windfall for me i hope....surprisingly i got in earlier...before Alex made this call...

check out Alex's call on TWS ~> http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2011/02/tws-another-unbelievable-quarter.html

...I am proud too..bcos earlier alredi gave minimum TP and max TP...long time even before Alex made this call...seems like Alex is following me...haha..just joking la...anyway, sapa la kita ni...just seekor ikan bilis di laut dalam....

here my previous call on TWS ~> http://investorsplanet.blogspot.com/2011/01/pre-cny-portfolio.html

my only wish is that...hopefully the TP will be achieved between April to May 2011....but sooner is better la...why? becos i expected funds to push market down afterwards (in 2nd half)...

having said that...i am reviewing my TWS call...

basing on 4qtr result for FY2010...TWS eps stands at about 165 sen...so Fair Value at PE10 should be rm16.50...give about 20% further discount...so minimum TP should be around rm13.20...simple math...TWS must achieved this minimum TP within 3 months time...or else...downturn next...

next hurdle is at rm9.00...if broken...then next is rm10.00...TWS is very quick and nimble due to a very low number of shares floating amongst retailer investors...so dont be surprise when seeing fast up and fast down...

now, i know a lot of investors are worried about TWS debts...i would bring to arguement 2 points...

1. a good loan by a good business and well managed ~> good for investors...
2. a loan being serviced by improving revenue, profit and eps ~> good for investors...

plus points for TWS...
1. crude oil up = palm oil up = food up = TWS up...
2. crude oil up = inflation up = food up = TWS up....

...if my call is wrong...then i am wrong...no hearts feeling...

Regional green...bursa red!

haha..wanna see proofs how syndicate manipulate stocks?...just see today's close...our neigbouring Asian bourses closed red...bursa also closed red....but funny..today other bourses closed green...bursa decided to closed in red...haha...what a joke...

one more..this morning tertengok 1 funny trade....KKB...haha...since open 9a.m trade just around price range 2.06 to 2.07...11.18am at 2.06...suddenly next trade at 11.20am...one joker jumped buy queue....that fella bought 3427 mini lot...aka 342,700 unit (342 big lot) at...rm2.50 per unit!!! crazy!!! tak kan salah tekan order kot?!....cuba kira brapa nilai transanction?...lebih drpd rm856k...in one go....jump drpd 2.06 ke 2.50....perghh!!! lompat 44 sen...tp lepas tu..trade gradually turun balik till closed at 2.08...

mgkin kah...this is insider trading?....somebody who know something good is waiting around the corner?...or...look at KKB chart ari ni....you'll see...a long inverted white hammer!...kesan ke atas TA...

1. broke resistance at 2.24 ~>bullish
2. MACD...forming round bottom ~> bullish
3. MACD line...blue line reversing up...~>bullish
4. ADIX...+DI pointing north...-DI pointing south....possible new uptrend ~> bullish

....haha..dont misjudge me...i do have KKB...so if price climb afterwards...me untung too...this is just to drive a point....any stocks is opened to syndicate manipulation...it's just so happen that KKB has fundamental strength...KKB price currently at future PE of only 4.89...with minimum tgt eps at 5 sen (discounted for 4qtr FY2010, due in feb 2011)...KKB has Fair value of rm4.29...heck, give further discount to a TP of 3.oo...watdayaget? at current price of 2.08...still got room almost rm1.00..or upside of 50%...simple math... perhaps, KKB just needs some electric jolts to push it up....

which brings us to driving the main point....sometimes, manipulation is good...at other times, manipulation is destructively misleading...most importantly, every Dick, Tom and Harry knows...that our bursa malaysia is being manipulated...so why do we still stubbonly stay invested in bursa?...simple: high risk equals to high gain...otherwise, we have to park our money in FD or ASB...

enjoy this weekend...

wat a green morning...

bursa is bullish in morning session...perhaps on notes that bursa went into deepest red for the past 2 days...bursa also goes up in line with regional asian bourses...at the moment, bursa is fighting to stay above 1490...

now, time to watch in afternoon session...good luck everyone...

middle east issue cause further panic selling...

bursa closed 1489 pts, yesterday...down almost 25 pts on 2nd day of huge selling...the day before...more than 900 cntrs down..yesterday also close to 900 cntrs down..huge selling everywhere...today is friday...so chances are..more down today...

wat to do? everybody is taking a tumble...i am also stuck inside...as of yesterday, my portfolio is in red..at 3% loss..a couple thousands of paper loss...sh*t does happen every now and then...

and..all of this is becoz of the conflict in the middle east...and especially after Gaddafi vowed to fight until his death...to stay in power...and refusing people's liberation in Libya...

now, there are talks of military intervention...to stabilise crude oil...which at the moment alredi risen to more than USD100 perbarrel..

i am praying that FBM stays above close support line 1495pts from today and next week...failure to do so...will see FBM sink further...with more rounds of panic selling...

Points to ponder...if results are good...and better prospects are seen in march and april...then wat is the basis of this correction?...the answer is FEAR....

people or funds holding cash right now is waiting to jump in when bursa found its bottom...as for me...i will not run....i choose to hold my portfolio since the paper loss is still contained...now, i must bear my eyes seeing red...i believe bull will come back soon...why?...bcos the market have been down for more than 1 month alredi....since 17 january 2011 until today....i still remember the bull rush in early january 2011...tat was the last bull before the current correction...

bottom line...keep faith on the upside...but watch out for the downside...anything is possible at the moment...

bursa deep red...caught us by surprise

pd pkl 4.30 ptg....over 80 ctrs green...over 900 ctrs red!!!...gila!!!...terpijak periuk api tengah jalan....not sure wat happen....but opportunity for those with money...hoping for a better tomoro...

...as for saag...saw people selling at 0.110 and 0.115...support broken....i have bearish sentimen...cutloss saag 50%...keep balance units 50%...looks like game over?! have to wait for further move at today'c close and tomoro...

bursa closed higher 1525 pts...

hmm looks like bursa crossing into bullish zone (crossing 50% RSI line)..notice also MACD forming bottom...MACD blue line is crossing red line...volume increasing yesterday and today...index closed green for the 5th day alredi...the signs are showing the start of a bull...how long can it run? dunno la...but hey...still not in overbought...plenty of upside....suspect more to come...

my 3 stars in the making...and hopefully stay that way is coastal, mitra and tws...today closed at 3.690, 2.130 & 8.100....what else can i say...am a proud daddy...

meanwhile, ramunia still stubborn to move...AGM on last friday...declared free of debt!!! good sign...bcos the same reason ramunia got into PN17....my faith in ramunia is still strong despite price staying between 0.68 to 0.69...well based on calculation..fair value at PE10 is rm1.04....still long way to go...

now, my obvious concern saag!!!...this little b**stard is losing volume...the price still hovering about support line at 0.115...if this support is broken...imagine wat happen?! why people are dumping it at 0.120 and 0.125???? wait for 4qtr report....u see if score 0.3 sen eps then Fairvalue is rm0.150 only...but if score 0.7 sen...fair value at rm0.190...this is minimum at PE10...saag used to be goreng until over PE20...now...the real issue...wat to do???

there is always time to retreat...but should i make full retreat or half retreat?...honestly..saag's chart looks ugly...can saag price hold above 0.115?...at this moment...i am seeing tougher time for saag...thus i shall cutloss 50% of saag from tomoro...i shall keep another half and see wat happen next....if volume and price recover...i shall come back in later...

wahhhh!!! bull is coming?!?!?

bullish friday....morning session mcm x gerak...but by lunch kasi sign utk gerak....ptg closed in green...harap bullish rebound ni berterusan mggu depan...

semasa ribut merah, portfolio mampu bertahan....alhamdullillah, after days of averaging and buying, now, portfolio aku pun dlm hijau gak...these are the counters i'm holding at the moment...


Counters AVP last closed

1. coastal 2.400 2.610
2. cscsteel 1.748 1.810
3. drbhicom 1.717 2.160
4. kkb 2.010 2.120
5. mbmr 3.318 3.300
6. mitra 1.963 1.990
7. naim 3.655 3.740
8. tws 7.740 7.820
9. ramunia 0.690 0.670
10. saag 0.140 0.125


...total capital has grown to RM97,720.99...harap bull slps CNY ni akan take my capital to a new level...


klu semua bjalan ikut plan...now is the time to wait for the bapak bull...later, can sell...

Bursa down again..closed 1493 pts... :( *sigh*

aku expect atleast benteng 1500 x pecah...now pecah already....takut next monday terus koyak....wat's happening to bursa??? dunia naik, bursa turun...dunia turun, bursa lagi turun daa..bursa kena period sampai bila daa???

aku no more capital...100% invested...of closing this afternoon, total portfolio paper loss....-rm69....the worst counter rugi dalam portfolio is RM900...but di imbang oleh kaunter2 untung....dan blum ada kaunter yg perlu cutloss....

aku rs sale khamis dan jumaat ni mcm xda asas jer....maybe just irrational panic sell...if that is so..then the wise things is to buy more if got extra cash....can get good counter at huge discount...especially klu mggu depan pun sale gak...

aiyoo...mlm ni ke cari kot2 ada extra cash bawah tilam...haha...

Bursa 1503...jitters and black swan

thursday...bursa closed with a big red note...down 32pts (2%)...the worst in our region...120 green, 750 red, 220 white...tat is a lot of red...and...the reasons??? well a lot of people are dumbfounded....why yesterday???? is it bcos..

1. China rate hike?
2. US employment report?
3. Escalating rioting issue is Eygpt?
4. news of religious clash in Indonesia?

too many bads news sending jitters...stocks in my portfolio also ended in red...but luckily...most were above their AVP...i hope today market ends better...with a green note...perhaps yesterday was just a black swan tragedy cum opportunity...those who bought yesterday might smile today...

but i suspect morning sessi starts with mild red before turning mild green...so, let's pray bursa closes stronger in green and stays above 1500...if not then we'll see huge waves of red sea...

CSCsteel 'pushdown' noted...

wednesday trading....noticing 'pushdown' being done to CSCsteel...every time price got past 1.77...then got push back to 1.75 or below..

method used by someone aka syndicate...sell 1 small lot at lower price...mind u, not big lot throw...hmmm, some big accumulation followed by pushdown....wat does it mean? I smell something good is coming...but donno wat...

also noted...increasing volume and price for the past 4 days...but volume wise not so significant...one thing for sure, CSCsteel has not been gorenged yet....holding a bit longer...

tgt EPS at 4 sen for feb 2011 (qtr 4 FY2010)...CSCsteel should end up at annualised EPS of around 20 sen...Fair Value estimated at rm2.03...if based on Book Value..then FV is rm2.09...if discounted further, then, rm1.90 is achievable as TP close...furthermore, the resistance also stand at 1.90....

bull charging after CNY...

bulls are back...but tomoro (today) is wednesday...3rd day of rise since the last trading day before CNY...aka pd ari makan besar...

so...possible that wednesday akn fall down due to T+3 effect in the afternoon...so if got push morning...petang akan jatuh....do monitor from time to time on wednesday...

my portfolio starts to turn around...like KKB, TWS and CSCsteel...star performers especially DRBHicom and Mitra...DRBHicom AVP now at 1.717 after accumulate at 1.98, 1.92, 1.95....Mitra AVP now at 1.963 after accumulate at 2.01, 1.84...MBMR AVP at 3.318 after accumulate at 3.19...the rest are currently in HOLD position...

with little than 3k capital left...go for penny or warrant...

Saag & Jotech rocks...

penny stocks fever.... :)..how long it could last...

saag and jotech inches upward...closed stronger volume and higher price...for tomoro let's add up into watchlist...

1. Saag
2. Jotech
3. Ramunia
4. Talam

...expecting Ramunia and Talam to get more volume tomoro...

also noted...taking profit morning session...then got afternoon push to close higher....the signs of a bull...

Happy CNY 2011 - Rabbit yr..full speed ahead

CNY today...yesterday bursa half day till 12.30 only..closed early for makan besar...today public holiday ler...

based on strong closed yesterday...market seems like poised for a 'spring' start after CNY is over...and i assume stronger after Cap Go Meh...hungry ghost = hungry traders/investors... :)

hoping...slps CNY holiday still got time to accumulate cheap..as most counters has shown signs of moving up...

prior to CNY..penny stocks dominate majority active list...keep watching these penny stocks...

1. HWGB (tin mining) ~> 0.905
2. Jotech (metal press and diversified) ~> 0.145
3. Saag (O&G engineering) ~> 0.130

Basing on just TA...
1. HWGB... alredi rocketed...wait for consolidation if want to enter...
2. Jotech...first peak done...consolidate then rebounded...and now broke ceiling 0.14...closed at 0.145 yesterday...with stronger volume, stronger price upward movemnt seen...cup and handle formation...but big question is....wat the TP??? how far can it go???
3. Saag...is making a huge comeback from bottom....bottom sealed at 0.09...rocketted to touch first peak 0.15 before consolidate to 0.12...but yesterday closed at 0.13 with stronger buying volume...also noted cup and handle formation...

Basing on just TA again...if i got 10K of capital...i might go for Jotech (50%) and Saag (50%) on a few reasons...
1. Increasing Volume and Price (for the past 3 days)...might want to wait for 2 more days after CNY to see the trend (but it might be too late to enter by then?)...
2. Both had formed 1st peak....just finished consolidation and rebounding up...to reach 2nd peak (donno where)...so until 2nd peak is formed still got the upward potential...
3. RSI still not in overbought..MACD looks bullish...
4. No signs of 'Game Over' yet for these 2 counters...

Commodity (metal, coal & crude oil) is on the rise at the moment...so potential is there...but....do remember this is more of a TECHNICAL PLAY...so
1. Quick in and Quick out...
2. Set Cutloss...
3. Watchout for sudden SELLOUT...

Again..Happy CNY...enjoy ur holidays...

**Reminder: this is not suggesting tat the readers should buy the above counters...do watchout for the risks involved...risiko sendirian berhad...

Bursa Update

mggu lps international dan regional market ended in red...bursa dah masuk oversold dan nmpk cam ready nak u-turn slps hampir reach support area at 1500 pts...now almost all counters look ready for engine restart....but kena consider..

31 January ~> one trading day
1 feb ~> cuti hari wilayah
2 feb ~> half day trading??? sblm close utk makan besar pre-CNY...

so...1 and 1/2 day of trading...maybe trading volume akn turun dan price akn stagnant???

since last thursay and friday...wallap some shares into custody....klu tomoro down maybe bleh collect lagi...3 counters involved in trading BUY...DRBHicom, Mitra dan MBMR....lelain letak dalam HOLD...baki capital to shoot dah x byk...only 17K...

expecting turn around by mid feb aka after CNY....

Bursa - Pre-CNY in deep red...

Bursa is taking a tumble...deep red within a few days of CNY...time like this put a strainous test on your emotion...luckily aku dah lock some profit...threw a few counter...keep some cash...

bear season almost reach peak now....after a few days of red...la ni waiting for the 'signs'....just like in the eye of storm...menunggu tgh mata ribut....usually calm and directionless...with low trading volume...and price seem like not moving...then, the best time for topup old or new shares....

for now...stay low....endure the storm...watch your ration (cash level)...

Bursa - Final week before CNY...

miggu ni adalah miggu last sblm long holiday CNY 2011 the yr of Rabbit...CNY2010 yr of Tiger, bursa down sblm CNY pastu back into buying mood after CNY...kali ni Yr Rabbit rsnya akan berulang pattern sama...but as i noticed...if January bursa up..then Feb and March akn down...let's us see whether the same pattern will b repeated...

if Feb and March down, then opportunity to buy hanya kpd those with capital...so might be wise to keep spare bullet...shall we say between 20% to 50%...

so my strategy this time for CNY rabbit 2011...

1. buy on the last 2 days before CNY...
2. buy more after CNY...especially if RSI is showing undervalued
3. concentrate on my current portfolio...
4. swap from laggards to active...
5. keep the profitable ones or add up more if necessary
6. keep minium capital of 20% for spare bullet...

my reason...simple...in a worst case scenario, i believe there will be a 2nd wave of bull rally...after CNY...where it will be the chance to lock profit...and recover our losses....then after...bear season will come somewhere near end of Feb..goin into march and possibly into April...Bull should come back by May 2011 and charges forward on....

whatever will be...the choice of our stocks will determine whether portfolio stay stagnant or charges ahead....

Harga Getah affects glove makers...

lucky me...made a decision to cut loss on topglove a few days ago...foresee a further downside of gloves...

td sembang dgn a friend of mine...he owned some small rubber estate...3 hari dpt rm3,000...dan price getah about rm7.15 p/kg...a month ago, bru rm6.30....wow! getah estate owner are laughing to the bank...

again trend ni akn meningkat selagi general election blum jalan...which means...if GE (PRU) mgkn dlm april atau may....bru getah akn stabilise...but d question is...bilanya harga getah akan turun....until that happens, i do not dare to enter....if buy gloves...maybe need to hold until next year utk comeback....if impatient enuf to enter...then do it bit by bit....either way is too risky...no guarantee bcos rubber price bites off a big chunck of gloves' profit....

FYE2011 utk gloves, will likely see...a HUGE reduction in...
1. revenue
2 profit margin
3. eps

but in contrast...a BALLOONING influx of trouble ahead in..
1. Cost (higher raw cost eg: rubber, fuel, forex exchange,transport...)
2. Debt (of new financing of machinery/factory..)

This will spell disaster..unless...gloves company can do something to counter masalah di atas...such as:
1. buy rubber estates...with trees ready to be tapped (no point of buying vacant land, bcos takes time to grow rubber tree)...
2. pass the cost to the consumer...
3. using new material to replace rubber latex (aka synthetic gloves???)

Complicated isnt it?...and all the argument above just proves one thing....gloves are in deep sh*t...and will remain so for several financial quaters....

bottom line is...for gloves counter....u can look but do not touch...

Mitra - Big Surprise!!!!

sapa sgka...mrkt x brapa sihat sbb people dok clear position...mitra plak wat surprise....anyway mitra proposed:

1. bonus issue (2:1)
2. warrants (8:1)
3. split 1 to 2...then baru kira bonus and warrant

too cut short...beli 4 lot mother...slps split mother (par 1.00 jd par 0.50)... jd 8 lot mother...dpt 4 lot bonus issue...dan dpt 1 lot warrant (expire 5 tahun).....should be around 50% profit...

tarikh akhir blum finalise..so expect mitra akan rally up melawan arus.... aku put Fair Value at rm4.00...CIMB put at 3.00...Alliance put at 2.00....well, ari ni tutup at 2.00...so based on today's close...

well harap support mitra akn kekal at minimum 1.80...sbb klu jatuh bawah rm2.00 adalah good sign to collect more...esok cuti Taipussam...lusa (friday) mitra akn roket...

Bursa - Bulls are out for holidays... : (

Nmpknya bull dah start balik kampg...bear plak dah mula masuk bursa mulai smlm...yesttrday lebih 700 kaunter dlm merah...ari ni aku jangka volume start slow...dan pagi ni rs bursa cam x gerak...same goes with portfolio...cam frozen...

lock profit for yesterday and today...throw some share cam KKB...DRBH-cc...mitra...but keep profit of the 'free units'...so still got balance units in custody..including DRBH mother...will get back later...

TWS kena huge pullback....now down at area 7.70...Naim too but not that much...but since election is near...plus got relation with Dayang (60% owned by Naim)...plus Dayang proposal of bonus issue...plus Dayang may got contract from shell and now petronas...Naim got huge potential...

personally, aku rs portfolio pre-CNY strong...cuma cabaran kuat sbb beruang dah mula masuk...one thing aku notice...klu Januari mula strong, feb akn ada minor correction...so nothing wrong of being cautious...if stay invested, do keep some bullet for later use...

Pre-CNY portfolio...

2 mggu lebih lagi sblm Chinese New Year...made some adjustment to weed out laggard/loser....retain/hold and shoot new potential...adjustment made aftr sale of 60% DRBHicom (at rm 2.21 aka after peak)..

HOLDING:
1. CSCsteel...enjin blum start..donno when? Hope, soon...
2. DRBH...having 40% (mcm dapat free..coz alreadi took out original capital)...but now DRB facing tough time...now down to 2.03...will enter back...klu dah establish landing base...i'm seeing around 1.90 to 2.00...
3. DRBH-CC...thinking of let go some...to catch mother...no decision yet...long term still good to hold as mother TP2.50...
4. KKB..doing some minor correction...support strong at 2.00...good time to average up soon..once found base...
5. MBMR...still not moving...base around 3.30...if base hold...akn rebound up...sooner or later...might be wise to ave down further...get more lots before too late...

CUT OFF:
1. TopGlove...bye,bye...sayonara for now...sakit hati...rubber prices still stubborn....eats up profit....may affact atleast 2 qtrs...qtr 3 and 4 baru leh nmpk stabilising...took the money and shoot better counter...

NEW ADDITION (in these 2 weeks)...
1. Mitra...entered last friday..when rebound and touched 1.78...so AVP 1.78..for now...today 10% paper profit....Fair Value 4.00...close TP 3.00 enuff said...
2. Naim...entered last week..AVP 3.68...still accumulating...Fair Value around 4.00 also...but speculative play might push highter to PE15 at rm5.00...
3. TWS...basic food counter...sugar, rice & palm cooking oil...finish accumulate...now wait to reach TP...entered in stages...AVP7.75...with TP close at rm9.00....but wait...Fair Value at PE10 = rm11.00 !!!!...

Bursa steady on increase...might see some profit taking prior to CNY...maybe next week??? Preparing to get back some capital....letting the winner run and keep the 'free of charge' units...after CNY, market will move forward...Tat's is for sure...

CSCsteel & TopGlove - re-evaluate situation....

CSCsteel jd laggard dlm portfolio...pergerakan harga sgt minima....mula hilang sabar nih...FA wise...look like making a comeback after 3 bulan downtrend...aiyoooo....this is the case of not locking profit!!!

TopGlove...on the other hand...bdepan cabaran besar...penurunan dollar dan peningkatan harga getah akibat cuaca dan permintaan...well...cannot blame others...masa beli dulu igt ka gloves nak wat turn around....this is the case of not doing cut loss!!!

so thinking of letting go....to collect bullet...to shoot other counters...at the moment, tgh dok aim kat 2 potential ctrs...with signs of uptrend...

KKB and MBMR shows signs of life...

KKB price mula bgerak...but volume blum ada...once volume mai, akn berjalan lancar...utk masa ni, still good to hold current position...masih awal utk pyramiding(average up)...looking for further signs..once break 2.20 mgkn volume/interest akan mai dgn kuat...masa tu akan masuk by half...TP masih kekal basing on FA...

MBMR...AVP la ni at 3.365 slps wat averaging down..closed ari ni in profit....with stronger volume...will do average up once uptrend movement is confirmed...but, first, kena break 3.45 dulu....TA wise showing potential uptrend on the way...TP masih kekal basing on FA...

DRBHicom - be strong....more to come...

amik kptusan to lock profit dlm DRBhicom...sold half...keep half...locked profit at 85% untung....

alasan jual...to protect profit...dan keep the rest...to fight on smpai TP2.50 (near)...and beyond spai TP3.50 (far)....lastly swap/anchor more dlm DRBH-CC ...now holding 10 big lot of CC and adding more....if reach 2.50...mother gain berkembang to morethan 100%....dan CC should be around 0.675...another 14% gain or more...

so...now, aku ada a king and a queen for the checkmate...

volume DRB akn come back...why? bcos FA wise...it is still undervalued....TA wise, traders tgh tunggu signal...support 2.20 masih strong....i think once break rm2.30...more people will jump on board...HwangDBS TP utk DRB at 3.55...

Bursa 1563pts - red on negative regional performance...

tutup merah...on profit taking...guess wat, people dah expect profit taking mmgu ni..just tak sgka akn jd on monday 10th....

1st week dok ckp psl bull...now sentimen not so good...evrybodi talk like doomsday knocking on door!!!..pelik,pelik....same people who talk about the year of leaps and bounds...la ni dok cakap psl lariiiii....why perception brubah in less than 1 week???? tat is human emotion...

1st week was just baby bull...believe it or not, the same happen last year during the gloves 'gold rush'.....wat happen after the early year mild correction....market goes up....

yes...correction is healthy....the weak ones take some burn....the smart ones sell half to prepare bullet...the rich fellow will bring in reinforcement (capital)...

yes..follow the trend....but do not kill your golden goose...hope this correction is just a small bruise...good luck evryone...

Bursa - 1572 pts...New year, New High

bursa tutup mingg1 dgn green bullish....more people happy....but next week camna plak?..friday green...so kmgkinan moday akn green jgk selagi bullish mode masih on....but profit taking possible jgak minggu depan....

congrats to those who make money....sapa masih blum untung, mgkn ada something wrong...sbb now bursa dlm bull mode....beli apa saja bleh wat duit...the real test of man come in bear season...

points to consider...top 10 volume nmpknya d monopoli 'super coma' penny stock....penny sudah mau bangkit...cth

1. saag
2. compugt
3. hubline
4. ircb...etc

but...wat will come next? tema-tema 2011 utk d perhatikan...

1. O&G product/servis...catalyst...crude oil dok naik
2. Sawit Plantation....catalyst...palm oil tgh naik & cuaca
3. Consumer food...catalyst...rise of living expenses (inflation)...rice,sugar, cooking oil...

Turning into Green Hulk....

opppss...bursa ended green....more bull tomoro....now getting more and more interesting...must be very careful....do not get caught offguard...

more happy people....haha

Bursa - RED in morning session...

bursa kena kad merah pagi nih...nampaknya pergerakan mula dgn FBM30 (big boys aka 1st liner)....

pagi nih big boys kena red card..haha..tp 3rd liner aka cap ayam nmpk aktif....top 30 volume utk sesi pagi penuh dgn penny stock under rm1.00....

next 2nd liner punya turn utk aktif ka? wait and see....

The 3 Golden Keys and 7 Arches of fortune...

This is to remind myself...so that i won't forget!

These are the 3 keys which could unlock immense wealth in stocktrading....

1. FA
2. Volume & Price
3. Theme

And...these are the 7 Arches of great fortune in playing warrant (by hedging against mother)...

1. Always buy warrants below their premium (in the money)...
2. Buy warrants when mother is up...
3. Sell warrant when the mother is down...
4. Do not buy warrant when it is close to expire date...
5. Smaller ratio = more power in price movement..
6. If right issue warrants....do not exercise
7. If Cash Settled Call Warrant....on expire, you win, if current price value higher than exercise value...you lose, if exercise value higher than current price value...

...study them carefully....

MBMR - keep buying on weakness...

am still bullish on MBMR despite today MBMR xde bullish mood...now at 3.30-3.31....TA wise on consolidation phase...and i think will jump into 2nd wave soon...if higher volume come in dlm minggu ni atau depan....akn fly....alreadi top up skit...now AVP @ 3.36...more top up to come if fall between 3.00 to 3.30...think support at 3.20 will hold....just need to break resistance at 3.36...adoiii aku terbeli tinggi masa memula...

other FA on MBMR...NAPS at 3.70....at current price = discount of 10% from book value...dan of course price wise is a bit on the high side...but i took the risks bcos my calculation shows huge potential...so, i'll keep until 4Q result out in Feb 2011...rs akan move by that time towards FV/TP...now chance to accumulate before its too late...

smlm komen di TV3 buletin...about potential rise of class B and C vehicles (compact car segmen) for 2011....with rising fuel cost...and rising cost of living, of course possible...

MBMR-accumulate bit by bit...

why MBMR?...rsnya ramai org dah aware psl ni....ntah lah....ok looking kat FA,yer...big potential....calculated projected EPS = Fair Value/TP sekitar rm5.67 (future PE10)...bbanding harga sekarang @rm3.30-3.40....meaning...further upside of 70% winning chances...klu nak bagi discount, say, TP rm4.00??? still ok...

aku collect slowly...

Bursa-Bateri masih kuat, wooo!

masih dlm bullish mood...many happy faces, traders and investors alike....haha...wait till bear season...muka masam jer...

check out E&O !....cilakuih, penat aku tunggu....bila aku jual, enko naik menyacak yer???? haha....win some, lose some...aku just break-even dgn E&O...

other counters will make profit...thats for sure....wats up with KKB??? let's see...Fair Value = rm4.70!!!....calculated basing on projected eps lah...plus election theme in play? plus...directors accumulating....it is a triple combo!!! klu EPF atau PNB kumpul or kuar any good news....bleh jd super combo...

today is a wonderful day....:)

(added later) p/s: if at future PE10 = 4.70 too much...just discount to TP3.00... still look delicious...hope can arrive soon

2011-early year bull !!!

bursa buka on 3rd Jan 2011...bulls let loose on the field...plenty of green ushering new year...plus...1 month to CNY and probably general election theme on the way...

My 2011 portfolio:
1. CSCsteel ~> AVP1.72
2. DRBHicom ~>AVP1.19
3. DRBHicom-CC ~>AVP0.47
4. KKB ~>AVP1.90
5. MBMR ~>AVP3.40
6. TOPGlove~> AVP5.76

Did some hedging in DRBHicom-CC, and still accumulate...DRBHicom still hold until arrive my TP...

CSCsteel not moving up...been holding for months now...should have sold at peak last time...considering to fold over into other counter...

KKB, just started engine today...

MBMR, slowly accumulate bit by bit....

TopGlove is not so beautiful now!!! Maybe have to wait until March (past rubber wintering season)...Can't wait that long...


New candidates (FA strong)...got a list of about 5 stocks after doing own research (looking at their financial reports)....Trade BUY in play...slowly accumulate...

Need to remind myself....this time no more play,play....need to follow this maxim ~> use 80:20 rules aka 80%FA, 20%TA....