Saham coma/superpenny jadi pilihan...

sessi pagi ni saham2 coma/superpenny jd perhatian traders...list active stock

1. Kbunai (non-syariah....resorts/entertainment/casino?)
2. Saag
3. Nicorp
4. Compugt
5. Sinotop
6. Hubline....etc

remember lbh krg 1 tahun lps, saag reach 0.39...compugt reach 0.17...nicorp 0.09...hubline 0.30...sume dah 1 tahun dlm downtrend...

sementara sinotop bru jer turun dr puncak 0.65 slps senarai tahun ni...

more u-turn goreng coming???..or trap?

Bursa - down continue by 8 pts (12 noon)

Bursa trskan fall..tp portfolio recovered....takat la bear 270 counter vs bull 290 counter....so masih 50-50 chance of falling...expect ptg ni dlm directionless...no down no up...

masih dlm posisi hold...takat la, harapan masih ada...hopefully taufan merah akn berakhir cepat supaya portfolio bleh truskan xpdisi pendakian...

Bursa - dr 1474 turun ke 1458

smlm close 1474 tp dah krg strength utk trus bullish...mulai pagi td spai ptg ni, bear msk padang...tutup 1458 on profit taking...

trpks let go 3A pagi td utk collect balik modal...cutloss sbb TA nmpk cam nak turun lagi...nmpk death cross (MACD)..buang pd 1.78..lps tu ptg, 3A trus junam...rugi 5%...

dgn rujuk ADIX....CSCsteel, DRB, E&O dan KKB nmpk akn mula climb slps ribut merah berakhir...keep or add into position bila2 sesuai...atau pilihan lain ialah letgo DRB, CSC & KKB in profit utk collect modal...

now, problem...MudaJaya...still no news psl tuduhan fraud...klu mother turun melepasi support 3.90...mgkn terpksa give CB..option out 1/2 dulu atau retreat 100%...add more CB klu support bleh hold...

aku harap bursa rebound esok ptg atau isnin depan...problem....trader close position esok & isnin biasanya kurang halatuju...ari ni punya jatuh dah kira agak dalam sbyk 16 pts dlm sari...magnitute hampir sama cam 19/05/2010 pre world cup ari tu...

praying for miracles from US, Europe, Japan & China mlm nie...if not...muntah darah mggu depan...

Watchlist - 5 active and potential goreng stocks...

mulai esok kena perhatikan 5 stock nie...berdasarkan TA, lima2 ada potensi explosive...

1. E&O - P(1.18), S(1.11), R(1.25)
2. KNM - P(0.465), S(0.40), R(0.50)
3. L&G - P(0.475), S(0.42), R(0.49)
4. Scomi - P(0.42), S(0.39), R(0.45)
5. Zelan - P(0.69), S(0.63), R(0.75)

**P = Price, S= support, R= resistance

FA wise..aku rs E&O terbaik antara 5 nie...scomi & zelan sbb gomen link/tema bajet...

1. E&O mgkn akn break 1.25 soon...going into TP1.50
2. KNM kena break 0.50 pastu akn consolidate dulu...very hard!!!
3. L&G kena break 0.49 sblm mara...
4. Scomi mgkn testing 0.45 level cam bulan ogos lps...
5. Zelan mgkn ke level 0.75 soon...

E&O - 1st batch

nampak traders masuk area 1.20 dan ada gak sell 1.19 dgn volume aktif...tp lebih ramai beli kat 1.20...s0 jumped Q pd 1.20...beli 1st batch at 1.20...wait for 2nd batch area 1.15-1.18...

TA wise...dah break resistance kat 1.18...potensi naik lebih tinggi...klu ari ni close, turun pun kat 1.17-1.18 jer kot...tomoro sure goreng 2nd round...

aku igt awal tahun ni ada broker house kasi TP 1.50...sure or not? bleh...klu E&O score EPS 13 sen utk FY2010 (kiraan PE12)...FY2009 = eps 6.66 sen...kena double profit...Q1 2010 dah 0.96 sen, better than Q1 2009...

div 3.8% (on par 1.00)...due exdate 14 oct (lbh krg 1 bulan lagik)...translate 1 big lot = rm28.50 (after tax 25%)...x byk sgt utk attract dividen play...lbh krg DY 3% jer...sama cam FD...

Gorengggg is on...

mulai 11 pagi td 2 stock ni digoreng hebat...zelan slps break 0.67 dan E&O slps break 1.16..

closing noon...zelan 0.705 dan E&O 1.23...expect ptg ni kena throw masa sessi ptg...klu nak masuk enter area bawah...

expectation bdsrkan TA..potensi naik masih besar...so kena perhatikan timing utk enter...

Zelan - area 0.67 - 0.70...TP dekat 0.78
E&O - area 1.18 - 1.20...TP dekat 1.25

FA wise...E&O lbh baik bbanding Zelan...

DRBhicom - still ada power...

masih hold DRBhicom...smlm dan pagi ni nmpk support area 1.18...ramai dok masuk area 1.19 - 1.20 sblm brlps..la ni dah cecah 1.23 pd noon...tgt break after 1.25 closing to 1.30 dah x jauh...

DRBhicom - melepasi 1.20 on strong news...

Slps bbrapa lama x aktif...now dah breaking away drpd 1.10 -1.15 dan tutup pd 1.19 selepas sentuh 1.20...which is a good news indeed...this undervalued stock mgkn just bru start engine klu tgk TA wise...

1. bollinger...bru breakout
2. MacD line...new uptrend
3. RSI...in bullish area & blum spai overbought

DRBhicom dah break close resistance...aka di 1.15...kemungkinan bergerak atas lagi...to next resistance at 1.25...klu break 1.25, sure bullish berterusan...

problem...
1. EPF masih dok selling...why???? sdgkan masih undrvalue..
2. people mgkn akn sell on good news..sbb news ttg DRBhicom akn beli stake dlm proton, join venture dgn automakers & mgkin unlock bisness entiti dgn list dlm bursa...

utk masa la, masih hold DRBhicom..reasons:
1. new uptrend...potensi utk naik lebih tinggi...
2. belum nmpk signal downturn utk take profit...
3. most importantly...DRBhicom masih lagi deeply undervalued...especially berbanding auto lelain...

harap monday/mggu depan akn lebih baik... :)

Bursa - 3 days after raya...1472 pts

Bursa makin dekat dgn 1500 pts...puncak makin meninggi...correction is due...tp bila???..sblm ni correction x jadi...so, I am just a bit wori la...tgk chart nmpk gayat...

the thing is...lately counter pilihan aku x gerak..why? nape jd laggards...one thing mgkn sbb yg dok naik byk sejak Ogos ari tu ialah kaunter FBM30...

or..mgkn aku just kena tunggu skit lagi...taking profit now mmg bleh...tp blum spai tgt...I am in dilemma...heiiii, susah betul lah! nak cut loss, blum cecah cut loss...nak jual, untung ciput...nak simpan, x gerak aktif..so how...sonang yo, masuk gua bertapa dulu lar! hehehe...

sesambil tue, kena tgk kaunter/theme lain plak....

Esok raya, bukan hari ni lah!!! :)

tomoro raya expected..major exodus today...holiday mood is on...re-uniting with family and friends...so take a short break from stocks, grab a kitkat if u want to...:)...better still, grab some ketupat and rendang...and enjoy our blessed and wonderful life...give sedekah to the children and the needy (simply not because duit raya) but rather out of a sincere charity...

...so guys (whoever reading this open diary), SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDIL FITRI...EID MUBARAK...MAAF ZAHIR BATIN...HAVE A SAFE JOURNEY...ENJOY YOUR SYAWAL HOLIDAY..

MudaJaya CB - just stalled temporarily

pagi smlm lps Q utk CB 0.075, kuar wat last minit shopping raya...balik mlm check out CB..dan aikkks!!!...turun to 0.06..ha nevermind..Q dah matched..nak wat camna lagik..

so...going for plan B..waiting area 0.055 to 0.060...heharap u-turn Mudajaya (mother) menjadi...atleast 5.00 not that far...lps raya, expect mood membeli akan lebih rancak...

Mudajaya - mother and daughters..

Isu ttg MudaJaya..samada crita surat layang ttg pemalsuan accounting betul atau x...khabar2 angin sebut SC dah selesai siasat dan the news is good..hopefully everything akn back to normal..dan price akn pick up ke level asal sblm kejatuhan MudaJaya...

TA wise, u-turn dikesan bermula slps pertengahan ogos...overall, MudaJaya dijangka bullish wlu pun dlm mood raya (dan slps raya)...brokerhouse CIMB bagi TP rm7 lebih..aku punya valuation minimum rm 6...

1H eps = 25.59 sen..tgt 2H minimum 20 sen...so about 45 sen..stock value at PE10 = 4.50 minimum...but..having given mudajaya a discount of its EPS!...sektor construction biasanya Pe lebih tinggi..so let's assume PE12 dan pd discount = 5.47 minimum..

dgn lihat growth revenue, profit, eps dan NAPS...rsnya tgt rm 6 adalah logik...but kena byk sabar dan masuk bpringkat...

pagi ni decided beli MudaJaya CB..sbb nmpk potensi lebih baik banding CA...190 days to go (a lot of safety)...Queue 1st batch dulu 0.075 sama cam tutup smlm..looks like about to u-turn soon..mgkn after raya??? klu jatuh..akn average down

ready for 2nd batch kat harga lebih rendah...area 0.06 (just in case)...in short...

mother 4.50 = CB 0.07
mother 6.00??? = CB 0.10 possible????..i think so...so, wish me luck...

Bursa berehat sebentar...

ari ni bursa nmpk cam berehat sebentar..penat ooii ari2 panjat...: )

interestingly, active counter drpd 3rd/penny amik peluang utk bullish...but slps semak TA nmpknya just a technical rebound...mksdnya masih ada ruang utk turun lagi...

5 kaunter (TOP 10 active) yg jd perhatian aku ari ni, Jumaat 3 Sept 2010...ikut rank active...KNM, JCY, UEMland, Timecom dan E&O...dan based on TA,

1. KNM - technical rebound...potensi downside masih ada
2. JCY - technical rebound...further downside possible ke target area
3. UEMLand - bullish continue..x tau psl pa...any news? kena check sbb sdkit ganjil...
4. TimeCom - technical rebound...menarik...
5. E&O - technical rebound..paling menarik...

TA wise, Timecom dan E&O nmpk cantik...tgk minggu depan lak...

JCY - more on JCY...

ni aku bru jer baca pagi nih...drpd famous blogger DALI...seems like sama jer opinion...sama cam aku wat post bout JCY smlm...but his views lebih padat...

The meat of the thing is...everybody risau psl poor performance JCY...klu tgh pegang JCY la ni, kena lagi risau...sbb this blogger DALI ada pengikut yg ramai...his call akn ada certain effect on JCY...sesapa yg trap kat harga tinggi must be having sleepless nights...

Dlm kata lain, shrinking revenue & profit (+EPS)...adalah key kpd kejatuhan JCY...klu niaga untung makin susut, susah la mau hidup...

baca sendiri ~> DALI's views on JCY

KNM - masalah x abis2...

aku terkena dgn KNM...salah jangka sbb kan aku rugi ribu ringgit...igt ka privatisation nak on...rupa2 cakap kosong jer...a hard lesson to learn..anyway slps cut loss kat 0.73 pd march 2010 drpd AVP 0.86... ari ni tutup pd 0.44...nasib cutloss awal...

now KNM propose reverse share split plak...bad news plus bad move = bad for us...just perhati dr jauh jer...sgt bahaya...

Stock Valuation:
andaian 0.5 sen utk 3Q & 4Q...annualised at 2.38 sen EPS
value = RM0.24 maks

JCY - terjun gaung...

sector computer appliances kena hit teruk...JCY x terkecuali...la ni free falling drpd peak 1.90 (April 2010)...spai la, ari tutup pd 0.895 (Ogos 2010)...

klu x salah aku..masa dekat2 nak spai puncak dlm April dulu, ada brokerbank (Taikor Bank aka CIMB???) bagi TP spai 2.50...mgkn sbb masa tu sector HDD mmg tgh hot...

reastically utk 3Q FY2009 yg baru berakhir utk JCY...nmpk ada penurunan prestasi yg ketara...

stock valuation:
andaian annualised EPS = 11.94 sen (2 sen utk 4Q FY2009)
minima 0.84
maksima 1.19

semua ni psl 'poor preformance'...TA wise, blum establish bottom...

3A - buy volume dah mai..

3A tutup higher ari ni pd 1.89...signal2 dah masuk untuk u-turn...dah break wedge on the upside...next, kena break 1.91..sblm cecah TP close 2.00...

utk peminat candlestick, 3 white soldiers telah dikesan masuk drpd bottom support...utk peminat ADIX, adix dah cross negative adix..dan menuju line 20...a strong uptrend dikesan...manakala price dah break MA20...MACD gak show trend menaik sudah bermula...buy volume juga dah masuk...seems like engine baru nak mula...

notice gak...utk 3A, mood traders dok accumulate sebelah petang...

E&O - apa crita?

E&O turun slps puncak kat area 1.25...now menurun dan blum confirm bottom...so wat the story?

FY2009 (dr 1Q to 4Q)...
1. revenue berlegar around 73 to 89 million dgn jump dlm 2Q kpd 114 million...mgkn sbb sales meningkat??? kena check ni...
2. profit juga bergerak seiring dgn trend revenue...
3. tp, EPS bagitau crita yg berbeza...interestingly EPS jump dgn ketara drpd total (Q1,2,3) EPS 3.31 sen kpd EPS4.12 sen (Q4)...huge jump!!! bear in mind, average utk 3 qtr tersebut ialah EPS 1.1 sen per qtr...so in short, EPS lompat drpd average 1.1 sen kpd 4.12 sen dlm 4Q FY2009...hmmm...

klu x salah..E&O xda lak wat any asset disposal...tp confirm E&O ada wat right issues dan ICULS dlm 3Q FY2009...klu camtu, most of profit dlm 4Q 2009 datang drpd langganan rights issues dan ICULS??? (agak jer)...kena siasat lebih lanjut...

utk FY2009, stock valuation E&O hanyalah sekitar RM0.74 shj...so kenapa sudden surge in price baru2 ni?...

aku rs sbb ramai expect trend revenue, profit & EPS meningkat atleast sama atau lebih baik utk 1Q FY2010...boy, everybody was wrong!

on 24 ogos 2010...report 1Q kuar...
1. revenue turun QoQ dan jgk bebanding 4Q FY2009...almost 50% decline
2. profit 1Q FY2010 double QoQ (1Q FY2009) tp turun more than 70% bbdng 4Q FY2009...huge!!!
3. EPS 1Q FY2010 = 0.96 sen jer! (dilution kesan conversion of rights and ICULS mula affect EPS)

so...kesimpulannya....people mula lose confident dan start selling...

stock valuation at PE10 (for FY2010):
*assuming annualised EPS FY2010 sama cam FY2009 ...
at EPS 7.43 sen = RM0.74...jer

klu kira kat PE 15 skalipun...value = RM1.12...remember peak baru2 ni kat 1.25 (dah terlalu tinggi)...

to be at current price (1.07), EPS FY2010 kena score atleast 10 sen annualised...bottomline, kena wait 2Q 2010 utk perkembangan selanjutnya samada bleh achieve atau x...

**TA wise...dlm downtrend...bottom blum nampak...u-turn blum comfirm...

p/s: aku rs kesan (penurunan harga) sama jgk berlaku kpd scomi akibat oversubscribe rights issues dan ICULS...especially jumlah new share listing semakin byk...