E&O - apa crita?

E&O turun slps puncak kat area 1.25...now menurun dan blum confirm bottom...so wat the story?

FY2009 (dr 1Q to 4Q)...
1. revenue berlegar around 73 to 89 million dgn jump dlm 2Q kpd 114 million...mgkn sbb sales meningkat??? kena check ni...
2. profit juga bergerak seiring dgn trend revenue...
3. tp, EPS bagitau crita yg berbeza...interestingly EPS jump dgn ketara drpd total (Q1,2,3) EPS 3.31 sen kpd EPS4.12 sen (Q4)...huge jump!!! bear in mind, average utk 3 qtr tersebut ialah EPS 1.1 sen per qtr...so in short, EPS lompat drpd average 1.1 sen kpd 4.12 sen dlm 4Q FY2009...hmmm...

klu x salah..E&O xda lak wat any asset disposal...tp confirm E&O ada wat right issues dan ICULS dlm 3Q FY2009...klu camtu, most of profit dlm 4Q 2009 datang drpd langganan rights issues dan ICULS??? (agak jer)...kena siasat lebih lanjut...

utk FY2009, stock valuation E&O hanyalah sekitar RM0.74 shj...so kenapa sudden surge in price baru2 ni?...

aku rs sbb ramai expect trend revenue, profit & EPS meningkat atleast sama atau lebih baik utk 1Q FY2010...boy, everybody was wrong!

on 24 ogos 2010...report 1Q kuar...
1. revenue turun QoQ dan jgk bebanding 4Q FY2009...almost 50% decline
2. profit 1Q FY2010 double QoQ (1Q FY2009) tp turun more than 70% bbdng 4Q FY2009...huge!!!
3. EPS 1Q FY2010 = 0.96 sen jer! (dilution kesan conversion of rights and ICULS mula affect EPS)

so...kesimpulannya....people mula lose confident dan start selling...

stock valuation at PE10 (for FY2010):
*assuming annualised EPS FY2010 sama cam FY2009 ...
at EPS 7.43 sen = RM0.74...jer

klu kira kat PE 15 skalipun...value = RM1.12...remember peak baru2 ni kat 1.25 (dah terlalu tinggi)...

to be at current price (1.07), EPS FY2010 kena score atleast 10 sen annualised...bottomline, kena wait 2Q 2010 utk perkembangan selanjutnya samada bleh achieve atau x...

**TA wise...dlm downtrend...bottom blum nampak...u-turn blum comfirm...

p/s: aku rs kesan (penurunan harga) sama jgk berlaku kpd scomi akibat oversubscribe rights issues dan ICULS...especially jumlah new share listing semakin byk...