Looking forward to 2011...

ada satu quotation popular dlm siber berkenaan buying and selling stocks...x tau ler dr mana dapat nih..dah x igt..it goes...

"accumulate slowly....hard sell loudly...sell off quietly..."

aku rs itu adalah taktik speculator...but harus di igt, 2011 is coming soon...so ramai akan tweak porfolio if neccessary to capture opportunity in 2011...so am I....mana yg perlukan trimming akan di trim...

by the way...utk pusingan baru ni...sold off mudajaya CB 100%....at 50% loss...byk tuh...trim down E&O dan TopGlove...all alasan, dah hilang sabar...dan utk get back capital to shoot

1. average up 1 current stock
2. hedging in 1 warrant
3. accumulate 1 new undervalued stock

masih terlalu awal utk count untung this year...but roughly capital gain (realised) down to 15% lepas tolak everything....termasuk loss dlm mudajaya CB...2009 lebih baik at 27%....Utk 2011, aku targetting utk make 50% bersih... insyaallah...apa pun, nyata lebih baik drpd FD atau ASB....

DRBHicom - Now, its a sought after gem !!!

pd ketika post ni d tulis...DRBh sdg dlm cubaan untk break rm2.00 resistance...now at rm1.97...if attempt berjaya, more will follow...

wat is the big hoohaa about DRBh??? TA wise mgkn akn ada consolidation klu fail to break rm2.00 resistance...1st support at RM1.75..

but ada cakap2 dlm cyber yg it's worth atleast rm3.50...HwangDBS gave TP at rm3.55...so how?

let's come back to basic question....camna nak letak value for stocks? sebenarnya, byk cara ikut style investor...for me, TP3.55 is too high...unless 3Q and 4Q eps = 10 +10 = 20 sen...then baru TP tu valid...otherwise...TP2.50 to TP2.70 adalah lebih logik sbb basing on current performance...

Having said that...x brmksd esok akn trus lompat...aku rs 3Q result adalah penentu samada DRB bleh cecah TP2.50 atau trus lompat ke TP3.50...if 3Q eps = 5 sen...so TP2.50 lah...if 3Q eps 10 sen, then TP3.50 is valid...

Hold DRB for now...and considering to do some hedging in DRB warrant...see how it goes..

Mudajaya: mother and daughter- wat's goin on???

aku x sure apa yg sdg berlaku...here some simple detective work based on surface...

current yr qtr-------rev(mil)------profit/loss(mil)-----eps(sen)-------accumulated eps
------3rd-------191-----------46-----------------11.37------------36.97
------2nd-------208----------54------------------13.24-----------25.59
------1st-------239-----------50------------------12.35----------12.35
prev FY 4th----211-----------41------------------11.02-----------31.38

da question is....wat do u see???? ni apa yg aku nmpk...

1. starting 4th qtr (previous financial year aka 2009)...rev+profit+eps up bbandng qtr2 sblm nya= good news indeed

2. mulai qtr 1 to qtr 3 FY2010...breached and maintain above 190 mil rev + above 45 mil profit + and finally above 10 eps from qtr1 to qtr3...=amazing feat...

3. tgk accumulated eps sj dah tau...qtr3 punya result dah surpass FY 2009....meaning utk qtr4 result (bakal kuar pd Feb 2011) mmg FY2010 akan lebih baik berbanding FY2009...letak eps minima pd 5 sen pun dah cukup...accumulated eps FY2010 akan = 41.97 sen...bbandng FY2009 = 31.38....logik,kan? overall impressive!!!

4. basing on tutup last pd rm3.76...dan target eps qtr4 FY2010 pd minima 10 sen eps...future PE mudajaya = 8...translated pd PE10, harga mudajaya ialah rm4.70...normal PE construction brapa? katakan PE 15...so fully valued at PE15= rm7.04 !!!!

5. Meaning??? in a perfect world...Mudajaya mother is undervalued at rm3.76...

but here's the catch...remember the poison pen letter...

1. claiming about mudajaya account being manipulated...tp x kena celaan SC pun???
2. nor...accounting company utk mudajaya kena tangkap/kantoi?

wat ever the issue is...yg pasti...

1. ramai panik dan hilang focus...(poison pen tu mmg berkesan)
2. ramai kena trap dlm mother dan warrant...(termasuk aku la tu...)
3. bila ramai clear position...domino effect akn sbbkan harga jatuh lagi bawah...
4. the last man standing is either an intelligent investor or a greater fool!

apa option bleh buat...
1. buy mother bila mother jatuh (bperingkat)
2. buy warrant bila mother start naik (bperingkat
3. average down (double or triple)
4. cut loss
5. hold and hope

at this stage...mother tutup pd 3.76...CB plak pd 0.015 dgn expiry 104 hari lagi aka lagi 3 bulan...cukup spai bulan 3 tahun 2011...

if just hold, the at AVP 0.075 x 8 = RM0.60 (ratio 8 to 1)... plus conversion at rm 5.65....so TP minimum = rm6.25 (just to breakeven)...previous highest price was on 22nd july 2010 touching rm6.10 sblm tutup at 5.94...then downhill spai la...5 bulan dah!

klu aku average down (double or triple dare) utk CB at 0.015...naik ke 0.025 dah cukup utk breakeven...but klu mother turun lagi...CB akn wipe all my hard earned profit for this year...

bottom line, my final decision...is to hold CB and sell into strength...while minimizing/accepting my loss in CB...hopefully Mudajaya akn wat u-turn mulai early (jan or feb) next year....insyaAllah.

Back after a long break...

I am back!!! : )

slps amik cuti panjang drpd stocks...due to problems inhibiting me and family...

1. Widad Amani dipatuk ular about seminggu slps raya puasa...masuk ICU utk 3 ari...really really serious...she stopped bernafas about 2 hours lps kena patuk...but recovered lps doc bagi bantuan pernafasan...after that, terpksa bkampung dlm kereta for 1 1/2 bulan sbb anak masuk ward...la ni pun masih kena ulang alik utk post treatment...tuhan saja tau camna stressnya hidup aku dgn isteri aku...lps wat plastique surgery, kaki Widad pulih tp scar besar masih jelas pd paha dan kaki...skingraft pun xleh replace atau balik cam asal...after more tha 3 months...dia dah bleh jalan cam biasa...home theraphy lebih berkesan...

2. November 2010..aku start building my own dream house...or bunglow (haha)...hopefully by middle 2011 dah bleh pindah masuk...design rumah sendiri lebih sukar dan mencabar...tp lebih puashati bbanding beli rumah siap...took almost 3 weeks to architec..after 11 designs, baru dapat yg terbaik...

3. Life drpd september spai la mmg stressful giler...xda hati dan masa nak jenguk stocks...so decided to leave stocks yg di accumulate...lagipun aku dah 100% invested...no more capital...well yesterday adalah ari pertama buka balik porfolio...mix reaction...Mudajaya CB teruk kena belasah...CSCsteel, E&O, KKB, topglove bertahan...but my star performer adalah DRBhicom...AVP (average) DRBhicom adalah 1.19...penutup last 1.80...50% profit...alhamdullilah! Aku percaya dgn pilihan CSCsteel, E&O, KKB dan topglove...just that...gelombang blum pick up...

4. Mudajaya CB at lowest point...mgkn dah establish bottom at 0.015...mother at 3.76...practically, CB wipe me out of my DRBhicom's profit...but i am not selling DRBhicom utk compensate CB.......CB 80% loss pd current price!!! ...kena check mother dulu utk wat kptsan...maybe wiser to switch to other potential warrant...

5. Investing dlm stocks x semudah yg orang sangka...if u cannot take loss, do not dabble in stocks...but my experience in stocks has taught me, if u stick with wat u do best....u will ride out the worst and find profit again...kita sbg investors are cold-hearted risk-takers....we are not stupid...we jumped in and out, left and right each having made calculated risks...if we are wrong, then be ready to accept the consequences...dlm kes CB, clearly i've made a wrong choice...i should keep my eyes stick to the price movement....i need to come out with a decision soon...

Saham coma/superpenny jadi pilihan...

sessi pagi ni saham2 coma/superpenny jd perhatian traders...list active stock

1. Kbunai (non-syariah....resorts/entertainment/casino?)
2. Saag
3. Nicorp
4. Compugt
5. Sinotop
6. Hubline....etc

remember lbh krg 1 tahun lps, saag reach 0.39...compugt reach 0.17...nicorp 0.09...hubline 0.30...sume dah 1 tahun dlm downtrend...

sementara sinotop bru jer turun dr puncak 0.65 slps senarai tahun ni...

more u-turn goreng coming???..or trap?

Bursa - down continue by 8 pts (12 noon)

Bursa trskan fall..tp portfolio recovered....takat la bear 270 counter vs bull 290 counter....so masih 50-50 chance of falling...expect ptg ni dlm directionless...no down no up...

masih dlm posisi hold...takat la, harapan masih ada...hopefully taufan merah akn berakhir cepat supaya portfolio bleh truskan xpdisi pendakian...

Bursa - dr 1474 turun ke 1458

smlm close 1474 tp dah krg strength utk trus bullish...mulai pagi td spai ptg ni, bear msk padang...tutup 1458 on profit taking...

trpks let go 3A pagi td utk collect balik modal...cutloss sbb TA nmpk cam nak turun lagi...nmpk death cross (MACD)..buang pd 1.78..lps tu ptg, 3A trus junam...rugi 5%...

dgn rujuk ADIX....CSCsteel, DRB, E&O dan KKB nmpk akn mula climb slps ribut merah berakhir...keep or add into position bila2 sesuai...atau pilihan lain ialah letgo DRB, CSC & KKB in profit utk collect modal...

now, problem...MudaJaya...still no news psl tuduhan fraud...klu mother turun melepasi support 3.90...mgkn terpksa give CB..option out 1/2 dulu atau retreat 100%...add more CB klu support bleh hold...

aku harap bursa rebound esok ptg atau isnin depan...problem....trader close position esok & isnin biasanya kurang halatuju...ari ni punya jatuh dah kira agak dalam sbyk 16 pts dlm sari...magnitute hampir sama cam 19/05/2010 pre world cup ari tu...

praying for miracles from US, Europe, Japan & China mlm nie...if not...muntah darah mggu depan...

Watchlist - 5 active and potential goreng stocks...

mulai esok kena perhatikan 5 stock nie...berdasarkan TA, lima2 ada potensi explosive...

1. E&O - P(1.18), S(1.11), R(1.25)
2. KNM - P(0.465), S(0.40), R(0.50)
3. L&G - P(0.475), S(0.42), R(0.49)
4. Scomi - P(0.42), S(0.39), R(0.45)
5. Zelan - P(0.69), S(0.63), R(0.75)

**P = Price, S= support, R= resistance

FA wise..aku rs E&O terbaik antara 5 nie...scomi & zelan sbb gomen link/tema bajet...

1. E&O mgkn akn break 1.25 soon...going into TP1.50
2. KNM kena break 0.50 pastu akn consolidate dulu...very hard!!!
3. L&G kena break 0.49 sblm mara...
4. Scomi mgkn testing 0.45 level cam bulan ogos lps...
5. Zelan mgkn ke level 0.75 soon...

E&O - 1st batch

nampak traders masuk area 1.20 dan ada gak sell 1.19 dgn volume aktif...tp lebih ramai beli kat 1.20...s0 jumped Q pd 1.20...beli 1st batch at 1.20...wait for 2nd batch area 1.15-1.18...

TA wise...dah break resistance kat 1.18...potensi naik lebih tinggi...klu ari ni close, turun pun kat 1.17-1.18 jer kot...tomoro sure goreng 2nd round...

aku igt awal tahun ni ada broker house kasi TP 1.50...sure or not? bleh...klu E&O score EPS 13 sen utk FY2010 (kiraan PE12)...FY2009 = eps 6.66 sen...kena double profit...Q1 2010 dah 0.96 sen, better than Q1 2009...

div 3.8% (on par 1.00)...due exdate 14 oct (lbh krg 1 bulan lagik)...translate 1 big lot = rm28.50 (after tax 25%)...x byk sgt utk attract dividen play...lbh krg DY 3% jer...sama cam FD...

Gorengggg is on...

mulai 11 pagi td 2 stock ni digoreng hebat...zelan slps break 0.67 dan E&O slps break 1.16..

closing noon...zelan 0.705 dan E&O 1.23...expect ptg ni kena throw masa sessi ptg...klu nak masuk enter area bawah...

expectation bdsrkan TA..potensi naik masih besar...so kena perhatikan timing utk enter...

Zelan - area 0.67 - 0.70...TP dekat 0.78
E&O - area 1.18 - 1.20...TP dekat 1.25

FA wise...E&O lbh baik bbanding Zelan...

DRBhicom - still ada power...

masih hold DRBhicom...smlm dan pagi ni nmpk support area 1.18...ramai dok masuk area 1.19 - 1.20 sblm brlps..la ni dah cecah 1.23 pd noon...tgt break after 1.25 closing to 1.30 dah x jauh...

DRBhicom - melepasi 1.20 on strong news...

Slps bbrapa lama x aktif...now dah breaking away drpd 1.10 -1.15 dan tutup pd 1.19 selepas sentuh 1.20...which is a good news indeed...this undervalued stock mgkn just bru start engine klu tgk TA wise...

1. bollinger...bru breakout
2. MacD line...new uptrend
3. RSI...in bullish area & blum spai overbought

DRBhicom dah break close resistance...aka di 1.15...kemungkinan bergerak atas lagi...to next resistance at 1.25...klu break 1.25, sure bullish berterusan...

problem...
1. EPF masih dok selling...why???? sdgkan masih undrvalue..
2. people mgkn akn sell on good news..sbb news ttg DRBhicom akn beli stake dlm proton, join venture dgn automakers & mgkin unlock bisness entiti dgn list dlm bursa...

utk masa la, masih hold DRBhicom..reasons:
1. new uptrend...potensi utk naik lebih tinggi...
2. belum nmpk signal downturn utk take profit...
3. most importantly...DRBhicom masih lagi deeply undervalued...especially berbanding auto lelain...

harap monday/mggu depan akn lebih baik... :)

Bursa - 3 days after raya...1472 pts

Bursa makin dekat dgn 1500 pts...puncak makin meninggi...correction is due...tp bila???..sblm ni correction x jadi...so, I am just a bit wori la...tgk chart nmpk gayat...

the thing is...lately counter pilihan aku x gerak..why? nape jd laggards...one thing mgkn sbb yg dok naik byk sejak Ogos ari tu ialah kaunter FBM30...

or..mgkn aku just kena tunggu skit lagi...taking profit now mmg bleh...tp blum spai tgt...I am in dilemma...heiiii, susah betul lah! nak cut loss, blum cecah cut loss...nak jual, untung ciput...nak simpan, x gerak aktif..so how...sonang yo, masuk gua bertapa dulu lar! hehehe...

sesambil tue, kena tgk kaunter/theme lain plak....

Esok raya, bukan hari ni lah!!! :)

tomoro raya expected..major exodus today...holiday mood is on...re-uniting with family and friends...so take a short break from stocks, grab a kitkat if u want to...:)...better still, grab some ketupat and rendang...and enjoy our blessed and wonderful life...give sedekah to the children and the needy (simply not because duit raya) but rather out of a sincere charity...

...so guys (whoever reading this open diary), SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDIL FITRI...EID MUBARAK...MAAF ZAHIR BATIN...HAVE A SAFE JOURNEY...ENJOY YOUR SYAWAL HOLIDAY..

MudaJaya CB - just stalled temporarily

pagi smlm lps Q utk CB 0.075, kuar wat last minit shopping raya...balik mlm check out CB..dan aikkks!!!...turun to 0.06..ha nevermind..Q dah matched..nak wat camna lagik..

so...going for plan B..waiting area 0.055 to 0.060...heharap u-turn Mudajaya (mother) menjadi...atleast 5.00 not that far...lps raya, expect mood membeli akan lebih rancak...

Mudajaya - mother and daughters..

Isu ttg MudaJaya..samada crita surat layang ttg pemalsuan accounting betul atau x...khabar2 angin sebut SC dah selesai siasat dan the news is good..hopefully everything akn back to normal..dan price akn pick up ke level asal sblm kejatuhan MudaJaya...

TA wise, u-turn dikesan bermula slps pertengahan ogos...overall, MudaJaya dijangka bullish wlu pun dlm mood raya (dan slps raya)...brokerhouse CIMB bagi TP rm7 lebih..aku punya valuation minimum rm 6...

1H eps = 25.59 sen..tgt 2H minimum 20 sen...so about 45 sen..stock value at PE10 = 4.50 minimum...but..having given mudajaya a discount of its EPS!...sektor construction biasanya Pe lebih tinggi..so let's assume PE12 dan pd discount = 5.47 minimum..

dgn lihat growth revenue, profit, eps dan NAPS...rsnya tgt rm 6 adalah logik...but kena byk sabar dan masuk bpringkat...

pagi ni decided beli MudaJaya CB..sbb nmpk potensi lebih baik banding CA...190 days to go (a lot of safety)...Queue 1st batch dulu 0.075 sama cam tutup smlm..looks like about to u-turn soon..mgkn after raya??? klu jatuh..akn average down

ready for 2nd batch kat harga lebih rendah...area 0.06 (just in case)...in short...

mother 4.50 = CB 0.07
mother 6.00??? = CB 0.10 possible????..i think so...so, wish me luck...

Bursa berehat sebentar...

ari ni bursa nmpk cam berehat sebentar..penat ooii ari2 panjat...: )

interestingly, active counter drpd 3rd/penny amik peluang utk bullish...but slps semak TA nmpknya just a technical rebound...mksdnya masih ada ruang utk turun lagi...

5 kaunter (TOP 10 active) yg jd perhatian aku ari ni, Jumaat 3 Sept 2010...ikut rank active...KNM, JCY, UEMland, Timecom dan E&O...dan based on TA,

1. KNM - technical rebound...potensi downside masih ada
2. JCY - technical rebound...further downside possible ke target area
3. UEMLand - bullish continue..x tau psl pa...any news? kena check sbb sdkit ganjil...
4. TimeCom - technical rebound...menarik...
5. E&O - technical rebound..paling menarik...

TA wise, Timecom dan E&O nmpk cantik...tgk minggu depan lak...

JCY - more on JCY...

ni aku bru jer baca pagi nih...drpd famous blogger DALI...seems like sama jer opinion...sama cam aku wat post bout JCY smlm...but his views lebih padat...

The meat of the thing is...everybody risau psl poor performance JCY...klu tgh pegang JCY la ni, kena lagi risau...sbb this blogger DALI ada pengikut yg ramai...his call akn ada certain effect on JCY...sesapa yg trap kat harga tinggi must be having sleepless nights...

Dlm kata lain, shrinking revenue & profit (+EPS)...adalah key kpd kejatuhan JCY...klu niaga untung makin susut, susah la mau hidup...

baca sendiri ~> DALI's views on JCY

KNM - masalah x abis2...

aku terkena dgn KNM...salah jangka sbb kan aku rugi ribu ringgit...igt ka privatisation nak on...rupa2 cakap kosong jer...a hard lesson to learn..anyway slps cut loss kat 0.73 pd march 2010 drpd AVP 0.86... ari ni tutup pd 0.44...nasib cutloss awal...

now KNM propose reverse share split plak...bad news plus bad move = bad for us...just perhati dr jauh jer...sgt bahaya...

Stock Valuation:
andaian 0.5 sen utk 3Q & 4Q...annualised at 2.38 sen EPS
value = RM0.24 maks

JCY - terjun gaung...

sector computer appliances kena hit teruk...JCY x terkecuali...la ni free falling drpd peak 1.90 (April 2010)...spai la, ari tutup pd 0.895 (Ogos 2010)...

klu x salah aku..masa dekat2 nak spai puncak dlm April dulu, ada brokerbank (Taikor Bank aka CIMB???) bagi TP spai 2.50...mgkn sbb masa tu sector HDD mmg tgh hot...

reastically utk 3Q FY2009 yg baru berakhir utk JCY...nmpk ada penurunan prestasi yg ketara...

stock valuation:
andaian annualised EPS = 11.94 sen (2 sen utk 4Q FY2009)
minima 0.84
maksima 1.19

semua ni psl 'poor preformance'...TA wise, blum establish bottom...

3A - buy volume dah mai..

3A tutup higher ari ni pd 1.89...signal2 dah masuk untuk u-turn...dah break wedge on the upside...next, kena break 1.91..sblm cecah TP close 2.00...

utk peminat candlestick, 3 white soldiers telah dikesan masuk drpd bottom support...utk peminat ADIX, adix dah cross negative adix..dan menuju line 20...a strong uptrend dikesan...manakala price dah break MA20...MACD gak show trend menaik sudah bermula...buy volume juga dah masuk...seems like engine baru nak mula...

notice gak...utk 3A, mood traders dok accumulate sebelah petang...

E&O - apa crita?

E&O turun slps puncak kat area 1.25...now menurun dan blum confirm bottom...so wat the story?

FY2009 (dr 1Q to 4Q)...
1. revenue berlegar around 73 to 89 million dgn jump dlm 2Q kpd 114 million...mgkn sbb sales meningkat??? kena check ni...
2. profit juga bergerak seiring dgn trend revenue...
3. tp, EPS bagitau crita yg berbeza...interestingly EPS jump dgn ketara drpd total (Q1,2,3) EPS 3.31 sen kpd EPS4.12 sen (Q4)...huge jump!!! bear in mind, average utk 3 qtr tersebut ialah EPS 1.1 sen per qtr...so in short, EPS lompat drpd average 1.1 sen kpd 4.12 sen dlm 4Q FY2009...hmmm...

klu x salah..E&O xda lak wat any asset disposal...tp confirm E&O ada wat right issues dan ICULS dlm 3Q FY2009...klu camtu, most of profit dlm 4Q 2009 datang drpd langganan rights issues dan ICULS??? (agak jer)...kena siasat lebih lanjut...

utk FY2009, stock valuation E&O hanyalah sekitar RM0.74 shj...so kenapa sudden surge in price baru2 ni?...

aku rs sbb ramai expect trend revenue, profit & EPS meningkat atleast sama atau lebih baik utk 1Q FY2010...boy, everybody was wrong!

on 24 ogos 2010...report 1Q kuar...
1. revenue turun QoQ dan jgk bebanding 4Q FY2009...almost 50% decline
2. profit 1Q FY2010 double QoQ (1Q FY2009) tp turun more than 70% bbdng 4Q FY2009...huge!!!
3. EPS 1Q FY2010 = 0.96 sen jer! (dilution kesan conversion of rights and ICULS mula affect EPS)

so...kesimpulannya....people mula lose confident dan start selling...

stock valuation at PE10 (for FY2010):
*assuming annualised EPS FY2010 sama cam FY2009 ...
at EPS 7.43 sen = RM0.74...jer

klu kira kat PE 15 skalipun...value = RM1.12...remember peak baru2 ni kat 1.25 (dah terlalu tinggi)...

to be at current price (1.07), EPS FY2010 kena score atleast 10 sen annualised...bottomline, kena wait 2Q 2010 utk perkembangan selanjutnya samada bleh achieve atau x...

**TA wise...dlm downtrend...bottom blum nampak...u-turn blum comfirm...

p/s: aku rs kesan (penurunan harga) sama jgk berlaku kpd scomi akibat oversubscribe rights issues dan ICULS...especially jumlah new share listing semakin byk...

Kfima - 1Q report 2010...

report kuar ari ni utk 1Q 2010...

1. revenue susut skit...acceptable
2. profit..bertambah by 5 million
3. eps..better drpd 4Q 2009 by 1.92 sen...tp susut 0.41 sen QoQ...

Kfima perlu lagi 15.72 sen utk break even bbanding FY2009...which i think bergantung kpd next 2Q 2010 report kat hujung tahun 2010 nati...perlu catat 5 sen eps utk next 3 qtrs which is possible to achive...

TA wise...masih showing potensi utk drop skit...target area utk accumulation antara support 1.04 hingga 1.14...

declare dividen 5% (tax 25%)..exdate 29 Sept 2010...

3A - harga break wedge pattern...

yesss!!!...3A tutup 1.88 dgn more volume (wlupun x brapa significant) bbanding minggu lps...aka dah break upside spt d target 1.84 dlm previous post...

TA (adix) menunjukkan potensi utk bergrk lebih tinggi...dgn menuju 20 line...gitu gak, MACD jg in tandem showing trend change dr bearish kpd bullish...now, kena follow pergerakan utk mggu ni dgn lebih close...

3A kena break next hurdle kat 1.91 sblm melangkah ke TP close 2.00...setelah dah lama stagnant, heharap 3A bleh start moving...

Happy Merdeka Day!

merdeka!, merdeka!, merdeka!...happy merdeka day kpd semua...esok cuti merdeka so, market rehat sebentar...

selalunya slps cuti market akn on dgn lebih rancak..so after merdeka day, possible trend sama berulang...tambahan lak market minggu ni buka dgn lebih rancak pd hari isnin...

last week, aku dok anticipate market akn down...seems D-day call kena tarik balik...sbb cam aku ckp dlm wangcyber...klu market x mo turun, dia akn naik...so kita kena ikut la...tp always kena hati2 sbb next correction (samada minor atau major) sudah due...

SELAMAT MENYAMBUT HARI MERDEKA...

Keuro and Talam love/hate affair...

Keuro...salah satu kaunter yg aktif trading di bursa at the moment...tgk financialnya mmg pinau mata sbb deep red...keuro nmpknya ada link dgn Talam...lately asik dok dispose share Talam on open market...mgkn...Keuro perlukan cash utk tahan financial drpd drop...

Financial Talam, on the other hand, lebih baik bbanding Keuro...tp lately asik kena dump oleh Keuro & IJM...so how?

Portfolio - Sempena Merdeka

status terkini...slps dispose Scomi dan Kfima dgn untung..

1. 3A (hold)
2. CSCsteel (hold)
3. DRBhicom (hold)
4. KKB (hold)

cash level around 30%...

3A - wedge pattern muncul...

3A nmpk ada pattern 'rising wedge in downtrend' (bearish) dgn range harga semakin menyempit...berlegar sekitar 1.76 -1.84...sekiranya break upside atas 1.84 mgkn signal utk mara jauh ke atas menuju ceiling 2.00...however, sekiranya break 1.76 ke bawah..akn trus jatuh dgn support pada area 1.60...

keep a close watch for another 1-2 weeks utk analysis berikutnya...klu xda perubahan, mgkn terpaksa exit utk ke stock lain...

3A was bought bcoz MA20 break MA50...menandakan new uptrend...problem utama ialah penurunan volume...so klu sell volume dah xda mgkn buy volume akn mai pasni...tp bila buy volume nak mai tu yg jd masalah...

trade option:
1. hold...tp take risk klu harga break downside
2. cutloss 50%...aka play safe
3. average down...double amount
4. exit 100% pd kerugian...

note:
harga tutp 1.81 sgt dekat dgn average price 1.89...for time being, trade call masih lagi HOLD...

Scomi jatuh dan blum touch bottom...

Scomi terus jatuh...close support 0.38...final support 0.36...klu break 0.36, akn jatuh lagi...aku rs masalah dgn scomi ialah additional listing...

stock valuation RM0.28....(stock ni just for pure goreng, FA x kira)

UEMLand: 1H profit up 409%..

haha...booby trap for bilis...why? untung (one time only) sbb dispose Touch and Go kpd Plus...other than that...xde interesting sgt...klu x psl untung disposal tu...mgkn maintain EPS bawah 1 sen per qtr...

bleh take risk, main hit and run (TA only tanpa FA)...tp TA for now menuju ke bwh..

stock valuation RM0.50...
PE tinggi giler...

EPF sdg wat heavy disposal...aku rs disposal tu valid...

yqkew xxx8

masuk senarai potential new project...

1H report baik...QoQ dan YoY meningkat...
1H EPS 4.4 sen
actual PE 8 (pd harga la..)
stock valuation RM 0.88

baru start new uptrend from bottom...very interesting...also coming dividen dlm oktober dgn yield about 2%

Kfima: report 1st qtr blum kuar, dah declare dividen 5%...

ex-date 29 september 2010...5% dividen minus 25% tax...translate into DPS 5 sen atau lbih tepat 3.75 sen seunit (after tax)...aka RM 37.5 utk 1 big lot...

but...nape declare dividen dulu sdgkan report utk 1qtr 2010 blum out lagi...hmmm...apa strategi management dok main nih? adakah to stop harga drpd terjun?...i mean, look at TA Kfima...early stage downtrend sgt obvious...

current price 1.17
ceiling 1.20
support 1.05
revised waiting area 1.05-1.14
EPS 22.32 (prev financial yr)
PE 5 (pd px 1.17)
stock valuation (PE10) RM2.23

all seems too well..unless 1st qtr report revenue, profit atau eps menurun...

KKB...1H 2010 report

report kuar 5 ogos lalu..profit up 132% bbanding 1H tahun lps...excellent...

tp klu banding dgn previous qtr...revenue dan profit turun skit...now the big bomb...EPS shrink drpd 23 to 5 (down about 72%)...no surprise sbb baru lepas bonus issue dan share split...pertambahan unit share akn affect EPS...

slps seeing the report..apa future company ni??? selain good for SabSar theme dan election...dan coming dividen dlm september...fundamental masih hold atau x?...future growth is expected sbb Sarawak dan Sabah jd fokus dlm new Rancangan Malaysia...plus directors pun dok kutip brtrsan..

Stock Valuation at PE10:
0.05X4X10=RM2.00...(wlupun par dah jd 0.50)

PE semasa/current at RM1.78:
*andaian 5 sen EPS bertrsn utk 3qtr & 4qtr EPS
so = 1.78/0.38 = 4!!!...wonderfully undervalued pd harga 1.78

ceiling 2.00...support 1.45...

DRBhicom...1Qtr profit (230% QoQ)

result dah kuar lewat ptg smlm...1st qtr profit up 230% bbanding dgn 1st qtr tahun lepas...skali tgk nmpk nice...but wait...

1. revenue turun skit...so ok la, acceptable...
2. profit?!...haa ni skit musykil...down 39% bbanding previous qtr!!!
3. EPS plak shrink by almost half bbanding previous qtr (from 13 to 8)...wotttt!!

patut ler price payah nak break drpd 1.15...dan epf asik dok dispose..seems like insider dah tau price mgkn dah kira prestasi semasa...

now, slps report ni dah kuar...dan xda lagi brita buruk, harap price akn start gerak ke atas...bottomline, DRBhicom mesti recover balik dlm 2nd, 3rd dan 4th qtr nati...otherwise...bye,bye

Stock Valuation at PE 10
EPS 1st qtr 8 sen...tp amik just 5 sen, kira low la...so
0.05 X 4 X 10 = RM2.00

scomi nak rebound?

nmpk scomi masuk panggung balik dgn accumulation oleh traders area 0.40...utk masa la ni, blum cukup menyakinkan utk masuk balik...target around 0.380 - 0.400 to accumulate....mgkn akn ada brita psl special dividen klu jerung2 dok accumulate...

support stil kat 0.370, ceiling kat 0.46...TP 0.50 minimum....wait further buy signal...

Bursa close green...goosebum lagi byk

x seperti d jangka...be very careful...minor correction terakhir masa sempena World Cup 2010 around 14 may selama 9 ari kejatuhan dr 1346 pts to 1248 pts...losing 98 pts dlm 9 ari...sejak tu trus naik drpd 1248 pts to break 1400 bbrapa ari lalu...

kira dr u-turn slps 9 ari kejatuhan dlm May, almost 150 pts up (double losing pts in May) dgn 2 kali berhenti rehat....'M' sudah confirm...meaning??? dah hampir masak ranum....tunggu masa utk pecah...

jadi, b veri afraid...sbb papa bear is coming down to paint the town red!!!

See you again Kfima...

selesai throw final batch Kfima kat 1.15...sgt sukar nak cari kaunter yg FA baik cam Kfima...with heavy heart kena let go...hopefully utk sementara...

aku wait kat bawah utk re-enter...area 1.10 ke bwh...support kat 1.03...

2 alasan utk dispose:

1. keadaan bursa menuju bearish..
2. TA Kfima menuju downtrend...wlupun FA x brubah...

Recovery...too soon?

Dow recover balik lps down...Euro dan Asia jgk expect camtu...question is...nape recovery cepat sgt?...aku mgkn salah tp klu bursa pun recover cepat dlm sari dua ni, akn confirm kejatuhan lebih parah minggu2 hadapan...pengalaman lepas2, aku remember bursa selalu lag behind baik masa jatuh atau masa naik...

strategy aku...sell on strength...time to exit!

klu perlu cut loss, akn cut 50% dulu atas 2 alasan
1. to average down kemudian...atau
2. to buy new stock pd harga discount...

also...marked- 25 ogos 2010 sbg D-day confirm kejatuhan...2 kali washout...jatuh, rebound, jatuh...tempoh singkat T+6 (min= 7 ari)...tempoh panjang T+20 (mak= 21 ari)...pastu baru u-turn balik...hanya enter new position bila dah 'xda harapan' atau bila 'confirm u-turn'...

explanation = teori aku ni sama mcm 'W' formation, reverse head and shoulder, atau EW...cuma simplified version utk layman cam aku...xde dlm mana2 buku punya..haha...just my observation...

CSCsteel...superb 1H report

310% increase in profit...PE rendah kat PE 7 pd harga 1.70...masalah steel theme blum main...

ceiling 1.80..support 1.60...harga downtrend...should have sold kat 1.80 ari tu..aduss!!!my mistake..tp not to wori...ada chance nak accumulate lagi area 1.60...

strong point:
1. PE low = 7
2. Good results
3. NAPS 2.09
4. DY 12%
5. Hutang very low

3A 1st half report...excellent!!!

dah kuar report on 9 August...profit increase by 36%...but PE 32 agak tinggi...PE actual juga expected area 30... harga stabil around 1.80...dgn ceiling 2.00...support terdekat 1.60...volume rendah...could go both way..up or down?

bila buy volume meningkat bleh pecah 2.00..tp wat masa la ni = coma...msk mid julai 2010...tempoh hold lagi 1 bulan 1/2 ie by mid oktober...

DRBhicom bila nak kuar report nih???

DRBhicom blum kuar report...selalunya kuar end of the month...mgkn esok kot....anyway ari ni tutup pd 1.10...btw, EPF dok wat heavy disposal...nape? result x baik ker?

anywy, TP 1.30-1.50 still x brubah...tapi kena break 1.15 dulu...dgn current situation mgkn susah skit...dgn support kat 1.04 rsnya akn rebound balik...wait area 1.05-1.08 klu nak average...

Portfolio: Bursa pecah 1400

Lps selesai dispose scomi...ni status terkini...

1. 3A (hold)
2. CSCsteel (hold)
3. DRBhicom (hold)
4. Kfima (Trail Stop)
5. KKB (hold)

kenapa hold?...because good stocks hard to come by...Kfima blum cecah trail stop...klu terpksa baru la jual...

dgn cash (from scomi dan 1st batch Kfima) bleh average down atau beli stock baru...

Bursa pecah 1400 pts...profit taking...

Bursa pecah 1400 pts wat kali pertama...pastu jatuh...trend yg sama berulang...pecah new high pastu pasti jatuh...

psl tu bila brita bursa pecah new high tgh dok hangat...aku turn pessimist...so tukar mode ke selling...now waiting to buy at discount...

ari ni hari pertama tentera merah msk padang....world bourses pun dok merah....expect merah btrusan utk bbrapa ari lagi...

nmpk bursa support kat 1350 pts...

meanwhile...masa bursa merah, ada x stock baru nak uptrend???? kena scan...

TA atau FA???

aku punya approach dlm saham ni adalah combination antara Fundamental dan Technical....or FA dan TA...mana mai dulu? mcm crita ayam dgn telur..based on experience, dua2 sama penting...

dulu hanya focus kat FA..fuhhh mmg hardwork...study financial report dan sbgnya...but sometimes terkena jugak sbb wrong entry....pastu guna TA plak...still terkena sbb pilih stock yg financialnya teruk..so slps tu aku decides nak gabung dua2...well, byk org cakap TA dan FA sgt berbeza sbb approach yg berbeza...aku stuju...that's why aku amik middle ground..amik the best from each approach...

Kfima...trailing stop 1.11

selling mode agak agresif di bursa la ni...majoriti share is falling..Kfima wlu pun FA baik kena tempias...trailing stop 1.11...

pagi open 1.16..la ni dah 1.13...aiyooo...

satu lesson yg pernah aku pelajari dulu....when traders are disposing shares...even good FA company pun akn kena...huhu...

Scomi masuk longkang...utk sementara?

hehheh...slps kumpul scomi pd 0.405 lbh krg 1 bulan lepas, aku start dispose scomi dlm batches especially bila dah spai peak around 0.46...signal TA show penurunan bakal jadi...so quickly aku let go wlu target asal 0.50 (minimum)...last batch dispose kat 0.435

aku keep an eye scomi...wlu la ni dah jatuh bawah 0.410...mgkn akn rebound klu ada news psl special dividen...bulan lps div drpd scomien (70% owned by scomi)...harap camtu lah...tunggu signal accumulation besar2an oleh directors atau funds...

Salam kpd semua...

1. Diari/catatan/blog ni adalah long overdue...actually plan nak publish awal 2009 tapi x pernah jadi...too busy dgn kerja lain yg > mustahak...

2. Sbb ni adalah diari/catatan peribadi...so, mgkn ada pandang yg 'bias'...normal la kan...free feel klu nak bagi pandangan berbeza...tapi harap budi bahasa dan kesopanan dijaga...

3. Aku bukan sifu...just a typical bilis investor/trader...tapi had learn a lot from past experiences...mula invest dalam bursa since 2006...ada up and down dlm saham...that's my story...

4. Kata akhir...aku x offer tips atau promo share pa2 d sini...klu ada soalan yg mampu jawab, aku akn jawb...but most of the time, aku akn mumble my thoughts d sini...bleh jadi salah, bleh jadi betul...at the end of the day, tu lah alasan aku wat post d sini...sbb senang wat reflection bila perlu...

p/s: klu ada tips ttg camna nak wat blog blog lagi menarik...sgt2 d hargai...psl aku pun x power dlm wat2 blog ni...basic kowledge jer...