Monday, February 28, 2011

Saag...4qtrs report is out for FY2010...danger!!!

4th qtr report is out on 28th feb 2011...

Qtr_______Rev_______Profit/Loss_______EPS
1qtr______12,793______4,895__________0.31
2nd______43,104______1,981__________0.11
3rd______23,623______13,541__________0.75
4th______39,641______(-29,834)________(-1.65)

this is the result of Saag for financial year 2010....

....look...on the whole we could see the revenue is improving quater on quater...but 4th qtr see a huge loss...why???? that is what i dont understand...

now, let's compare FY2008, FY2009 & FY2010...to see the trend...

FY ended_______Rev_______Profit/Loss_______EPS
2008_________542,130____30,545_________4.89
2009_________160,443____(-8,789)________(-1.03)
2010_________119,161____(-9,417)________(-0.52)

....scarry!!!..we could see declining revenue and declining profit...not good!...and EPS is still in negative....the company is at loss...

at first, i thought there's going to be a good turn around story bcos of good result from qtr1 to qtr 3....but...4th qtr FY2010 turn saag turnaround story into a mess!...look at FY2010...if revenue is up and shows good profit from qtr 1 to qtr 3...why suddenly registered a HUGE loss in qtr 4???? That...i dont understand....

but..this i do know....tomoro i have to say goodbye to saag...game over! I LOSE...

Bursa...broke support at 1494 and getting bloodier...

menakutkan!!!...well, wat can i say....this monday morning, bursa has broken support at 1494...and now trading at 1478 pts...u can expect tougher times ahead....for ur info, bursa had massive selling for the past 4 days in a row since 22 februari 2011....today is the 5th day...and looks like another big sale in the making....

...everybody is taken a surprise since regional was up in the previous week closing on friday....in the type of shakeout, even good fundamental stocks have to take some beating....i am not running...i am staying....on the reason that bursa has gone into oversold territory....

but just as a reminder....at current 1478 pts....bursa has broken 100MA support line....and thus the next support is at 1458 pts....and finally 1440 pts at 200MA support line....

...this tough time separates between the boys and the men....i still believe that this tough time will pass on....all the best to everyone...

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Mitrajaya...appetizers for mitra holders...

announcement made on 25 february 2011...

**Remarks :
The Directors are recommending a first and final single tier cash dividend of 12% and a share dividend on the basis of one (1) treasury share for every twenty (20) existing ordinary shares of RM1.00 each held in the Company, fractions of treasury shares to be disregarded in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2010.**


checkout full report at bursa malaysia~> http://www.bursamalaysia.com/website/bm/listed_companies/company_announcements/announcements/index.jsp

so...wat izzit all about??? in simple words, Mitra are giving more present to mitra holder before bonus issue....listen...

1. cash dividen of 12%...aka 12 sen...mitra's par at rm1.00...or if taxed at 28%, div is at 8 sen...yeppi!
2. share dividen...1 for every 20 units...aka...100 unit per 2,000 unit...simpler term...2 big lots, u get 100 units...20 big lot, u got 1 big lot....yeppi!

get this...1 for every 20 unite means u get about another rm0.05 pershare...plus that 8 sen cash dividen (after tax)...means u get 13 sen nett dividen pershare....at the stock price of rm2.00, u get a Dividen Yield of 6.5%....nice...

bear in mind...this is just an appetizer....remember we still got Bonus Issue, Free Warrants and Share Splits coming afterwards....

checkout my previous review on mitra ~> http://investorsplanet.blogspot.com/2011/01/mitra-big-surprise.html

i am seeing good prospect in near term for Mitra...

TWS...TP15.00 call by Alex

haha..tq very much alex..for promoting TWS....will be a windfall for me i hope....surprisingly i got in earlier...before Alex made this call...

check out Alex's call on TWS ~> http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2011/02/tws-another-unbelievable-quarter.html

...I am proud too..bcos earlier alredi gave minimum TP and max TP...long time even before Alex made this call...seems like Alex is following me...haha..just joking la...anyway, sapa la kita ni...just seekor ikan bilis di laut dalam....

here my previous call on TWS ~> http://investorsplanet.blogspot.com/2011/01/pre-cny-portfolio.html

my only wish is that...hopefully the TP will be achieved between April to May 2011....but sooner is better la...why? becos i expected funds to push market down afterwards (in 2nd half)...

having said that...i am reviewing my TWS call...

basing on 4qtr result for FY2010...TWS eps stands at about 165 sen...so Fair Value at PE10 should be rm16.50...give about 20% further discount...so minimum TP should be around rm13.20...simple math...TWS must achieved this minimum TP within 3 months time...or else...downturn next...

next hurdle is at rm9.00...if broken...then next is rm10.00...TWS is very quick and nimble due to a very low number of shares floating amongst retailer investors...so dont be surprise when seeing fast up and fast down...

now, i know a lot of investors are worried about TWS debts...i would bring to arguement 2 points...

1. a good loan by a good business and well managed ~> good for investors...
2. a loan being serviced by improving revenue, profit and eps ~> good for investors...

plus points for TWS...
1. crude oil up = palm oil up = food up = TWS up...
2. crude oil up = inflation up = food up = TWS up....

...if my call is wrong...then i am wrong...no hearts feeling...

Friday, February 25, 2011

Regional green...bursa red!

haha..wanna see proofs how syndicate manipulate stocks?...just see today's close...our neigbouring Asian bourses closed red...bursa also closed red....but funny..today other bourses closed green...bursa decided to closed in red...haha...what a joke...

one more..this morning tertengok 1 funny trade....KKB...haha...since open 9a.m trade just around price range 2.06 to 2.07...11.18am at 2.06...suddenly next trade at 11.20am...one joker jumped buy queue....that fella bought 3427 mini lot...aka 342,700 unit (342 big lot) at...rm2.50 per unit!!! crazy!!! tak kan salah tekan order kot?!....cuba kira brapa nilai transanction?...lebih drpd rm856k...in one go....jump drpd 2.06 ke 2.50....perghh!!! lompat 44 sen...tp lepas tu..trade gradually turun balik till closed at 2.08...

mgkin kah...this is insider trading?....somebody who know something good is waiting around the corner?...or...look at KKB chart ari ni....you'll see...a long inverted white hammer!...kesan ke atas TA...

1. broke resistance at 2.24 ~>bullish
2. MACD...forming round bottom ~> bullish
3. MACD line...blue line reversing up...~>bullish
4. ADIX...+DI pointing north...-DI pointing south....possible new uptrend ~> bullish

....haha..dont misjudge me...i do have KKB...so if price climb afterwards...me untung too...this is just to drive a point....any stocks is opened to syndicate manipulation...it's just so happen that KKB has fundamental strength...KKB price currently at future PE of only 4.89...with minimum tgt eps at 5 sen (discounted for 4qtr FY2010, due in feb 2011)...KKB has Fair value of rm4.29...heck, give further discount to a TP of 3.oo...watdayaget? at current price of 2.08...still got room almost rm1.00..or upside of 50%...simple math... perhaps, KKB just needs some electric jolts to push it up....

which brings us to driving the main point....sometimes, manipulation is good...at other times, manipulation is destructively misleading...most importantly, every Dick, Tom and Harry knows...that our bursa malaysia is being manipulated...so why do we still stubbonly stay invested in bursa?...simple: high risk equals to high gain...otherwise, we have to park our money in FD or ASB...

enjoy this weekend...

wat a green morning...

bursa is bullish in morning session...perhaps on notes that bursa went into deepest red for the past 2 days...bursa also goes up in line with regional asian bourses...at the moment, bursa is fighting to stay above 1490...

now, time to watch in afternoon session...good luck everyone...

middle east issue cause further panic selling...

bursa closed 1489 pts, yesterday...down almost 25 pts on 2nd day of huge selling...the day before...more than 900 cntrs down..yesterday also close to 900 cntrs down..huge selling everywhere...today is friday...so chances are..more down today...

wat to do? everybody is taking a tumble...i am also stuck inside...as of yesterday, my portfolio is in red..at 3% loss..a couple thousands of paper loss...sh*t does happen every now and then...

and..all of this is becoz of the conflict in the middle east...and especially after Gaddafi vowed to fight until his death...to stay in power...and refusing people's liberation in Libya...

now, there are talks of military intervention...to stabilise crude oil...which at the moment alredi risen to more than USD100 perbarrel..

i am praying that FBM stays above close support line 1495pts from today and next week...failure to do so...will see FBM sink further...with more rounds of panic selling...

Points to ponder...if results are good...and better prospects are seen in march and april...then wat is the basis of this correction?...the answer is FEAR....

people or funds holding cash right now is waiting to jump in when bursa found its bottom...as for me...i will not run....i choose to hold my portfolio since the paper loss is still contained...now, i must bear my eyes seeing red...i believe bull will come back soon...why?...bcos the market have been down for more than 1 month alredi....since 17 january 2011 until today....i still remember the bull rush in early january 2011...tat was the last bull before the current correction...

bottom line...keep faith on the upside...but watch out for the downside...anything is possible at the moment...

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

bursa deep red...caught us by surprise

pd pkl 4.30 ptg....over 80 ctrs green...over 900 ctrs red!!!...gila!!!...terpijak periuk api tengah jalan....not sure wat happen....but opportunity for those with money...hoping for a better tomoro...

...as for saag...saw people selling at 0.110 and 0.115...support broken....i have bearish sentimen...cutloss saag 50%...keep balance units 50%...looks like game over?! have to wait for further move at today'c close and tomoro...

Monday, February 21, 2011

bursa closed higher 1525 pts...

hmm looks like bursa crossing into bullish zone (crossing 50% RSI line)..notice also MACD forming bottom...MACD blue line is crossing red line...volume increasing yesterday and today...index closed green for the 5th day alredi...the signs are showing the start of a bull...how long can it run? dunno la...but hey...still not in overbought...plenty of upside....suspect more to come...

my 3 stars in the making...and hopefully stay that way is coastal, mitra and tws...today closed at 3.690, 2.130 & 8.100....what else can i say...am a proud daddy...

meanwhile, ramunia still stubborn to move...AGM on last friday...declared free of debt!!! good sign...bcos the same reason ramunia got into PN17....my faith in ramunia is still strong despite price staying between 0.68 to 0.69...well based on calculation..fair value at PE10 is rm1.04....still long way to go...

now, my obvious concern saag!!!...this little b**stard is losing volume...the price still hovering about support line at 0.115...if this support is broken...imagine wat happen?! why people are dumping it at 0.120 and 0.125???? wait for 4qtr report....u see if score 0.3 sen eps then Fairvalue is rm0.150 only...but if score 0.7 sen...fair value at rm0.190...this is minimum at PE10...saag used to be goreng until over PE20...now...the real issue...wat to do???

there is always time to retreat...but should i make full retreat or half retreat?...honestly..saag's chart looks ugly...can saag price hold above 0.115?...at this moment...i am seeing tougher time for saag...thus i shall cutloss 50% of saag from tomoro...i shall keep another half and see wat happen next....if volume and price recover...i shall come back in later...

Saturday, February 19, 2011

wahhhh!!! bull is coming?!?!?

bullish friday....morning session mcm x gerak...but by lunch kasi sign utk gerak....ptg closed in green...harap bullish rebound ni berterusan mggu depan...

semasa ribut merah, portfolio mampu bertahan....alhamdullillah, after days of averaging and buying, now, portfolio aku pun dlm hijau gak...these are the counters i'm holding at the moment...


Counters AVP last closed

1. coastal 2.400 2.610
2. cscsteel 1.748 1.810
3. drbhicom 1.717 2.160
4. kkb 2.010 2.120
5. mbmr 3.318 3.300
6. mitra 1.963 1.990
7. naim 3.655 3.740
8. tws 7.740 7.820
9. ramunia 0.690 0.670
10. saag 0.140 0.125


...total capital has grown to RM97,720.99...harap bull slps CNY ni akan take my capital to a new level...


klu semua bjalan ikut plan...now is the time to wait for the bapak bull...later, can sell...

Friday, February 11, 2011

Bursa down again..closed 1493 pts... :( *sigh*

aku expect atleast benteng 1500 x pecah...now pecah already....takut next monday terus koyak....wat's happening to bursa??? dunia naik, bursa turun...dunia turun, bursa lagi turun daa..bursa kena period sampai bila daa???

aku no more capital...100% invested...of closing this afternoon, total portfolio paper loss....-rm69....the worst counter rugi dalam portfolio is RM900...but di imbang oleh kaunter2 untung....dan blum ada kaunter yg perlu cutloss....

aku rs sale khamis dan jumaat ni mcm xda asas jer....maybe just irrational panic sell...if that is so..then the wise things is to buy more if got extra cash....can get good counter at huge discount...especially klu mggu depan pun sale gak...

aiyoo...mlm ni ke cari kot2 ada extra cash bawah tilam...haha...

Bursa 1503...jitters and black swan

thursday...bursa closed with a big red note...down 32pts (2%)...the worst in our region...120 green, 750 red, 220 white...tat is a lot of red...and...the reasons??? well a lot of people are dumbfounded....why yesterday???? is it bcos..

1. China rate hike?
2. US employment report?
3. Escalating rioting issue is Eygpt?
4. news of religious clash in Indonesia?

too many bads news sending jitters...stocks in my portfolio also ended in red...but luckily...most were above their AVP...i hope today market ends better...with a green note...perhaps yesterday was just a black swan tragedy cum opportunity...those who bought yesterday might smile today...

but i suspect morning sessi starts with mild red before turning mild green...so, let's pray bursa closes stronger in green and stays above 1500...if not then we'll see huge waves of red sea...

Thursday, February 10, 2011

CSCsteel 'pushdown' noted...

wednesday trading....noticing 'pushdown' being done to CSCsteel...every time price got past 1.77...then got push back to 1.75 or below..

method used by someone aka syndicate...sell 1 small lot at lower price...mind u, not big lot throw...hmmm, some big accumulation followed by pushdown....wat does it mean? I smell something good is coming...but donno wat...

also noted...increasing volume and price for the past 4 days...but volume wise not so significant...one thing for sure, CSCsteel has not been gorenged yet....holding a bit longer...

tgt EPS at 4 sen for feb 2011 (qtr 4 FY2010)...CSCsteel should end up at annualised EPS of around 20 sen...Fair Value estimated at rm2.03...if based on Book Value..then FV is rm2.09...if discounted further, then, rm1.90 is achievable as TP close...furthermore, the resistance also stand at 1.90....

Wednesday, February 09, 2011

bull charging after CNY...

bulls are back...but tomoro (today) is wednesday...3rd day of rise since the last trading day before CNY...aka pd ari makan besar...

so...possible that wednesday akn fall down due to T+3 effect in the afternoon...so if got push morning...petang akan jatuh....do monitor from time to time on wednesday...

my portfolio starts to turn around...like KKB, TWS and CSCsteel...star performers especially DRBHicom and Mitra...DRBHicom AVP now at 1.717 after accumulate at 1.98, 1.92, 1.95....Mitra AVP now at 1.963 after accumulate at 2.01, 1.84...MBMR AVP at 3.318 after accumulate at 3.19...the rest are currently in HOLD position...

with little than 3k capital left...go for penny or warrant...

Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Saag & Jotech rocks...

penny stocks fever.... :)..how long it could last...

saag and jotech inches upward...closed stronger volume and higher price...for tomoro let's add up into watchlist...

1. Saag
2. Jotech
3. Ramunia
4. Talam

...expecting Ramunia and Talam to get more volume tomoro...

also noted...taking profit morning session...then got afternoon push to close higher....the signs of a bull...

Thursday, February 03, 2011

Happy CNY 2011 - Rabbit yr..full speed ahead

CNY today...yesterday bursa half day till 12.30 only..closed early for makan besar...today public holiday ler...

based on strong closed yesterday...market seems like poised for a 'spring' start after CNY is over...and i assume stronger after Cap Go Meh...hungry ghost = hungry traders/investors... :)

hoping...slps CNY holiday still got time to accumulate cheap..as most counters has shown signs of moving up...

prior to CNY..penny stocks dominate majority active list...keep watching these penny stocks...

1. HWGB (tin mining) ~> 0.905
2. Jotech (metal press and diversified) ~> 0.145
3. Saag (O&G engineering) ~> 0.130

Basing on just TA...
1. HWGB... alredi rocketed...wait for consolidation if want to enter...
2. Jotech...first peak done...consolidate then rebounded...and now broke ceiling 0.14...closed at 0.145 yesterday...with stronger volume, stronger price upward movemnt seen...cup and handle formation...but big question is....wat the TP??? how far can it go???
3. Saag...is making a huge comeback from bottom....bottom sealed at 0.09...rocketted to touch first peak 0.15 before consolidate to 0.12...but yesterday closed at 0.13 with stronger buying volume...also noted cup and handle formation...

Basing on just TA again...if i got 10K of capital...i might go for Jotech (50%) and Saag (50%) on a few reasons...
1. Increasing Volume and Price (for the past 3 days)...might want to wait for 2 more days after CNY to see the trend (but it might be too late to enter by then?)...
2. Both had formed 1st peak....just finished consolidation and rebounding up...to reach 2nd peak (donno where)...so until 2nd peak is formed still got the upward potential...
3. RSI still not in overbought..MACD looks bullish...
4. No signs of 'Game Over' yet for these 2 counters...

Commodity (metal, coal & crude oil) is on the rise at the moment...so potential is there...but....do remember this is more of a TECHNICAL PLAY...so
1. Quick in and Quick out...
2. Set Cutloss...
3. Watchout for sudden SELLOUT...

Again..Happy CNY...enjoy ur holidays...

**Reminder: this is not suggesting tat the readers should buy the above counters...do watchout for the risks involved...risiko sendirian berhad...