ada satu quotation popular dlm siber berkenaan buying and selling stocks...x tau ler dr mana dapat nih..dah x igt..it goes...
"accumulate slowly....hard sell loudly...sell off quietly..."
aku rs itu adalah taktik speculator...but harus di igt, 2011 is coming soon...so ramai akan tweak porfolio if neccessary to capture opportunity in 2011...so am I....mana yg perlukan trimming akan di trim...
by the way...utk pusingan baru ni...sold off mudajaya CB 100%....at 50% loss...byk tuh...trim down E&O dan TopGlove...all alasan, dah hilang sabar...dan utk get back capital to shoot
1. average up 1 current stock
2. hedging in 1 warrant
3. accumulate 1 new undervalued stock
masih terlalu awal utk count untung this year...but roughly capital gain (realised) down to 15% lepas tolak everything....termasuk loss dlm mudajaya CB...2009 lebih baik at 27%....Utk 2011, aku targetting utk make 50% bersih... insyaallah...apa pun, nyata lebih baik drpd FD atau ASB....
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
DRBHicom - Now, its a sought after gem !!!
pd ketika post ni d tulis...DRBh sdg dlm cubaan untk break rm2.00 resistance...now at rm1.97...if attempt berjaya, more will follow...
wat is the big hoohaa about DRBh??? TA wise mgkn akn ada consolidation klu fail to break rm2.00 resistance...1st support at RM1.75..
but ada cakap2 dlm cyber yg it's worth atleast rm3.50...HwangDBS gave TP at rm3.55...so how?
let's come back to basic question....camna nak letak value for stocks? sebenarnya, byk cara ikut style investor...for me, TP3.55 is too high...unless 3Q and 4Q eps = 10 +10 = 20 sen...then baru TP tu valid...otherwise...TP2.50 to TP2.70 adalah lebih logik sbb basing on current performance...
Having said that...x brmksd esok akn trus lompat...aku rs 3Q result adalah penentu samada DRB bleh cecah TP2.50 atau trus lompat ke TP3.50...if 3Q eps = 5 sen...so TP2.50 lah...if 3Q eps 10 sen, then TP3.50 is valid...
Hold DRB for now...and considering to do some hedging in DRB warrant...see how it goes..
wat is the big hoohaa about DRBh??? TA wise mgkn akn ada consolidation klu fail to break rm2.00 resistance...1st support at RM1.75..
but ada cakap2 dlm cyber yg it's worth atleast rm3.50...HwangDBS gave TP at rm3.55...so how?
let's come back to basic question....camna nak letak value for stocks? sebenarnya, byk cara ikut style investor...for me, TP3.55 is too high...unless 3Q and 4Q eps = 10 +10 = 20 sen...then baru TP tu valid...otherwise...TP2.50 to TP2.70 adalah lebih logik sbb basing on current performance...
Having said that...x brmksd esok akn trus lompat...aku rs 3Q result adalah penentu samada DRB bleh cecah TP2.50 atau trus lompat ke TP3.50...if 3Q eps = 5 sen...so TP2.50 lah...if 3Q eps 10 sen, then TP3.50 is valid...
Hold DRB for now...and considering to do some hedging in DRB warrant...see how it goes..
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Mudajaya: mother and daughter- wat's goin on???
aku x sure apa yg sdg berlaku...here some simple detective work based on surface...
current yr qtr-------rev(mil)------profit/loss(mil)-----eps(sen)-------accumulated eps
------3rd-------191-----------46-----------------11.37------------36.97
------2nd-------208----------54------------------13.24-----------25.59
------1st-------239-----------50------------------12.35----------12.35
prev FY 4th----211-----------41------------------11.02-----------31.38
da question is....wat do u see???? ni apa yg aku nmpk...
1. starting 4th qtr (previous financial year aka 2009)...rev+profit+eps up bbandng qtr2 sblm nya= good news indeed
2. mulai qtr 1 to qtr 3 FY2010...breached and maintain above 190 mil rev + above 45 mil profit + and finally above 10 eps from qtr1 to qtr3...=amazing feat...
3. tgk accumulated eps sj dah tau...qtr3 punya result dah surpass FY 2009....meaning utk qtr4 result (bakal kuar pd Feb 2011) mmg FY2010 akan lebih baik berbanding FY2009...letak eps minima pd 5 sen pun dah cukup...accumulated eps FY2010 akan = 41.97 sen...bbandng FY2009 = 31.38....logik,kan? overall impressive!!!
4. basing on tutup last pd rm3.76...dan target eps qtr4 FY2010 pd minima 10 sen eps...future PE mudajaya = 8...translated pd PE10, harga mudajaya ialah rm4.70...normal PE construction brapa? katakan PE 15...so fully valued at PE15= rm7.04 !!!!
5. Meaning??? in a perfect world...Mudajaya mother is undervalued at rm3.76...
but here's the catch...remember the poison pen letter...
1. claiming about mudajaya account being manipulated...tp x kena celaan SC pun???
2. nor...accounting company utk mudajaya kena tangkap/kantoi?
wat ever the issue is...yg pasti...
1. ramai panik dan hilang focus...(poison pen tu mmg berkesan)
2. ramai kena trap dlm mother dan warrant...(termasuk aku la tu...)
3. bila ramai clear position...domino effect akn sbbkan harga jatuh lagi bawah...
4. the last man standing is either an intelligent investor or a greater fool!
apa option bleh buat...
1. buy mother bila mother jatuh (bperingkat)
2. buy warrant bila mother start naik (bperingkat
3. average down (double or triple)
4. cut loss
5. hold and hope
at this stage...mother tutup pd 3.76...CB plak pd 0.015 dgn expiry 104 hari lagi aka lagi 3 bulan...cukup spai bulan 3 tahun 2011...
if just hold, the at AVP 0.075 x 8 = RM0.60 (ratio 8 to 1)... plus conversion at rm 5.65....so TP minimum = rm6.25 (just to breakeven)...previous highest price was on 22nd july 2010 touching rm6.10 sblm tutup at 5.94...then downhill spai la...5 bulan dah!
klu aku average down (double or triple dare) utk CB at 0.015...naik ke 0.025 dah cukup utk breakeven...but klu mother turun lagi...CB akn wipe all my hard earned profit for this year...
bottom line, my final decision...is to hold CB and sell into strength...while minimizing/accepting my loss in CB...hopefully Mudajaya akn wat u-turn mulai early (jan or feb) next year....insyaAllah.
current yr qtr-------rev(mil)------profit/loss(mil)-----eps(sen)-------accumulated eps
------3rd-------191-----------46-----------------11.37------------36.97
------2nd-------208----------54------------------13.24-----------25.59
------1st-------239-----------50------------------12.35----------12.35
prev FY 4th----211-----------41------------------11.02-----------31.38
da question is....wat do u see???? ni apa yg aku nmpk...
1. starting 4th qtr (previous financial year aka 2009)...rev+profit+eps up bbandng qtr2 sblm nya= good news indeed
2. mulai qtr 1 to qtr 3 FY2010...breached and maintain above 190 mil rev + above 45 mil profit + and finally above 10 eps from qtr1 to qtr3...=amazing feat...
3. tgk accumulated eps sj dah tau...qtr3 punya result dah surpass FY 2009....meaning utk qtr4 result (bakal kuar pd Feb 2011) mmg FY2010 akan lebih baik berbanding FY2009...letak eps minima pd 5 sen pun dah cukup...accumulated eps FY2010 akan = 41.97 sen...bbandng FY2009 = 31.38....logik,kan? overall impressive!!!
4. basing on tutup last pd rm3.76...dan target eps qtr4 FY2010 pd minima 10 sen eps...future PE mudajaya = 8...translated pd PE10, harga mudajaya ialah rm4.70...normal PE construction brapa? katakan PE 15...so fully valued at PE15= rm7.04 !!!!
5. Meaning??? in a perfect world...Mudajaya mother is undervalued at rm3.76...
but here's the catch...remember the poison pen letter...
1. claiming about mudajaya account being manipulated...tp x kena celaan SC pun???
2. nor...accounting company utk mudajaya kena tangkap/kantoi?
wat ever the issue is...yg pasti...
1. ramai panik dan hilang focus...(poison pen tu mmg berkesan)
2. ramai kena trap dlm mother dan warrant...(termasuk aku la tu...)
3. bila ramai clear position...domino effect akn sbbkan harga jatuh lagi bawah...
4. the last man standing is either an intelligent investor or a greater fool!
apa option bleh buat...
1. buy mother bila mother jatuh (bperingkat)
2. buy warrant bila mother start naik (bperingkat
3. average down (double or triple)
4. cut loss
5. hold and hope
at this stage...mother tutup pd 3.76...CB plak pd 0.015 dgn expiry 104 hari lagi aka lagi 3 bulan...cukup spai bulan 3 tahun 2011...
if just hold, the at AVP 0.075 x 8 = RM0.60 (ratio 8 to 1)... plus conversion at rm 5.65....so TP minimum = rm6.25 (just to breakeven)...previous highest price was on 22nd july 2010 touching rm6.10 sblm tutup at 5.94...then downhill spai la...5 bulan dah!
klu aku average down (double or triple dare) utk CB at 0.015...naik ke 0.025 dah cukup utk breakeven...but klu mother turun lagi...CB akn wipe all my hard earned profit for this year...
bottom line, my final decision...is to hold CB and sell into strength...while minimizing/accepting my loss in CB...hopefully Mudajaya akn wat u-turn mulai early (jan or feb) next year....insyaAllah.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Back after a long break...
I am back!!! : )
slps amik cuti panjang drpd stocks...due to problems inhibiting me and family...
1. Widad Amani dipatuk ular about seminggu slps raya puasa...masuk ICU utk 3 ari...really really serious...she stopped bernafas about 2 hours lps kena patuk...but recovered lps doc bagi bantuan pernafasan...after that, terpksa bkampung dlm kereta for 1 1/2 bulan sbb anak masuk ward...la ni pun masih kena ulang alik utk post treatment...tuhan saja tau camna stressnya hidup aku dgn isteri aku...lps wat plastique surgery, kaki Widad pulih tp scar besar masih jelas pd paha dan kaki...skingraft pun xleh replace atau balik cam asal...after more tha 3 months...dia dah bleh jalan cam biasa...home theraphy lebih berkesan...
2. November 2010..aku start building my own dream house...or bunglow (haha)...hopefully by middle 2011 dah bleh pindah masuk...design rumah sendiri lebih sukar dan mencabar...tp lebih puashati bbanding beli rumah siap...took almost 3 weeks to architec..after 11 designs, baru dapat yg terbaik...
3. Life drpd september spai la mmg stressful giler...xda hati dan masa nak jenguk stocks...so decided to leave stocks yg di accumulate...lagipun aku dah 100% invested...no more capital...well yesterday adalah ari pertama buka balik porfolio...mix reaction...Mudajaya CB teruk kena belasah...CSCsteel, E&O, KKB, topglove bertahan...but my star performer adalah DRBhicom...AVP (average) DRBhicom adalah 1.19...penutup last 1.80...50% profit...alhamdullilah! Aku percaya dgn pilihan CSCsteel, E&O, KKB dan topglove...just that...gelombang blum pick up...
4. Mudajaya CB at lowest point...mgkn dah establish bottom at 0.015...mother at 3.76...practically, CB wipe me out of my DRBhicom's profit...but i am not selling DRBhicom utk compensate CB.......CB 80% loss pd current price!!! ...kena check mother dulu utk wat kptsan...maybe wiser to switch to other potential warrant...
5. Investing dlm stocks x semudah yg orang sangka...if u cannot take loss, do not dabble in stocks...but my experience in stocks has taught me, if u stick with wat u do best....u will ride out the worst and find profit again...kita sbg investors are cold-hearted risk-takers....we are not stupid...we jumped in and out, left and right each having made calculated risks...if we are wrong, then be ready to accept the consequences...dlm kes CB, clearly i've made a wrong choice...i should keep my eyes stick to the price movement....i need to come out with a decision soon...
slps amik cuti panjang drpd stocks...due to problems inhibiting me and family...
1. Widad Amani dipatuk ular about seminggu slps raya puasa...masuk ICU utk 3 ari...really really serious...she stopped bernafas about 2 hours lps kena patuk...but recovered lps doc bagi bantuan pernafasan...after that, terpksa bkampung dlm kereta for 1 1/2 bulan sbb anak masuk ward...la ni pun masih kena ulang alik utk post treatment...tuhan saja tau camna stressnya hidup aku dgn isteri aku...lps wat plastique surgery, kaki Widad pulih tp scar besar masih jelas pd paha dan kaki...skingraft pun xleh replace atau balik cam asal...after more tha 3 months...dia dah bleh jalan cam biasa...home theraphy lebih berkesan...
2. November 2010..aku start building my own dream house...or bunglow (haha)...hopefully by middle 2011 dah bleh pindah masuk...design rumah sendiri lebih sukar dan mencabar...tp lebih puashati bbanding beli rumah siap...took almost 3 weeks to architec..after 11 designs, baru dapat yg terbaik...
3. Life drpd september spai la mmg stressful giler...xda hati dan masa nak jenguk stocks...so decided to leave stocks yg di accumulate...lagipun aku dah 100% invested...no more capital...well yesterday adalah ari pertama buka balik porfolio...mix reaction...Mudajaya CB teruk kena belasah...CSCsteel, E&O, KKB, topglove bertahan...but my star performer adalah DRBhicom...AVP (average) DRBhicom adalah 1.19...penutup last 1.80...50% profit...alhamdullilah! Aku percaya dgn pilihan CSCsteel, E&O, KKB dan topglove...just that...gelombang blum pick up...
4. Mudajaya CB at lowest point...mgkn dah establish bottom at 0.015...mother at 3.76...practically, CB wipe me out of my DRBhicom's profit...but i am not selling DRBhicom utk compensate CB.......CB 80% loss pd current price!!! ...kena check mother dulu utk wat kptsan...maybe wiser to switch to other potential warrant...
5. Investing dlm stocks x semudah yg orang sangka...if u cannot take loss, do not dabble in stocks...but my experience in stocks has taught me, if u stick with wat u do best....u will ride out the worst and find profit again...kita sbg investors are cold-hearted risk-takers....we are not stupid...we jumped in and out, left and right each having made calculated risks...if we are wrong, then be ready to accept the consequences...dlm kes CB, clearly i've made a wrong choice...i should keep my eyes stick to the price movement....i need to come out with a decision soon...
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