Monday, January 31, 2011

Bursa Update

mggu lps international dan regional market ended in red...bursa dah masuk oversold dan nmpk cam ready nak u-turn slps hampir reach support area at 1500 pts...now almost all counters look ready for engine restart....but kena consider..

31 January ~> one trading day
1 feb ~> cuti hari wilayah
2 feb ~> half day trading??? sblm close utk makan besar pre-CNY...

so...1 and 1/2 day of trading...maybe trading volume akn turun dan price akn stagnant???

since last thursay and friday...wallap some shares into custody....klu tomoro down maybe bleh collect lagi...3 counters involved in trading BUY...DRBHicom, Mitra dan MBMR....lelain letak dalam HOLD...baki capital to shoot dah x byk...only 17K...

expecting turn around by mid feb aka after CNY....

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Bursa - Pre-CNY in deep red...

Bursa is taking a tumble...deep red within a few days of CNY...time like this put a strainous test on your emotion...luckily aku dah lock some profit...threw a few counter...keep some cash...

bear season almost reach peak now....after a few days of red...la ni waiting for the 'signs'....just like in the eye of storm...menunggu tgh mata ribut....usually calm and directionless...with low trading volume...and price seem like not moving...then, the best time for topup old or new shares....

for now...stay low....endure the storm...watch your ration (cash level)...

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Bursa - Final week before CNY...

miggu ni adalah miggu last sblm long holiday CNY 2011 the yr of Rabbit...CNY2010 yr of Tiger, bursa down sblm CNY pastu back into buying mood after CNY...kali ni Yr Rabbit rsnya akan berulang pattern sama...but as i noticed...if January bursa up..then Feb and March akn down...let's us see whether the same pattern will b repeated...

if Feb and March down, then opportunity to buy hanya kpd those with capital...so might be wise to keep spare bullet...shall we say between 20% to 50%...

so my strategy this time for CNY rabbit 2011...

1. buy on the last 2 days before CNY...
2. buy more after CNY...especially if RSI is showing undervalued
3. concentrate on my current portfolio...
4. swap from laggards to active...
5. keep the profitable ones or add up more if necessary
6. keep minium capital of 20% for spare bullet...

my reason...simple...in a worst case scenario, i believe there will be a 2nd wave of bull rally...after CNY...where it will be the chance to lock profit...and recover our losses....then after...bear season will come somewhere near end of Feb..goin into march and possibly into April...Bull should come back by May 2011 and charges forward on....

whatever will be...the choice of our stocks will determine whether portfolio stay stagnant or charges ahead....

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Harga Getah affects glove makers...

lucky me...made a decision to cut loss on topglove a few days ago...foresee a further downside of gloves...

td sembang dgn a friend of mine...he owned some small rubber estate...3 hari dpt rm3,000...dan price getah about rm7.15 p/kg...a month ago, bru rm6.30....wow! getah estate owner are laughing to the bank...

again trend ni akn meningkat selagi general election blum jalan...which means...if GE (PRU) mgkn dlm april atau may....bru getah akn stabilise...but d question is...bilanya harga getah akan turun....until that happens, i do not dare to enter....if buy gloves...maybe need to hold until next year utk comeback....if impatient enuf to enter...then do it bit by bit....either way is too risky...no guarantee bcos rubber price bites off a big chunck of gloves' profit....

FYE2011 utk gloves, will likely see...a HUGE reduction in...
1. revenue
2 profit margin
3. eps

but in contrast...a BALLOONING influx of trouble ahead in..
1. Cost (higher raw cost eg: rubber, fuel, forex exchange,transport...)
2. Debt (of new financing of machinery/factory..)

This will spell disaster..unless...gloves company can do something to counter masalah di atas...such as:
1. buy rubber estates...with trees ready to be tapped (no point of buying vacant land, bcos takes time to grow rubber tree)...
2. pass the cost to the consumer...
3. using new material to replace rubber latex (aka synthetic gloves???)

Complicated isnt it?...and all the argument above just proves one thing....gloves are in deep sh*t...and will remain so for several financial quaters....

bottom line is...for gloves counter....u can look but do not touch...

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Mitra - Big Surprise!!!!

sapa sgka...mrkt x brapa sihat sbb people dok clear position...mitra plak wat surprise....anyway mitra proposed:

1. bonus issue (2:1)
2. warrants (8:1)
3. split 1 to 2...then baru kira bonus and warrant

too cut short...beli 4 lot mother...slps split mother (par 1.00 jd par 0.50)... jd 8 lot mother...dpt 4 lot bonus issue...dan dpt 1 lot warrant (expire 5 tahun).....should be around 50% profit...

tarikh akhir blum finalise..so expect mitra akan rally up melawan arus.... aku put Fair Value at rm4.00...CIMB put at 3.00...Alliance put at 2.00....well, ari ni tutup at 2.00...so based on today's close...

well harap support mitra akn kekal at minimum 1.80...sbb klu jatuh bawah rm2.00 adalah good sign to collect more...esok cuti Taipussam...lusa (friday) mitra akn roket...

Bursa - Bulls are out for holidays... : (

Nmpknya bull dah start balik kampg...bear plak dah mula masuk bursa mulai smlm...yesttrday lebih 700 kaunter dlm merah...ari ni aku jangka volume start slow...dan pagi ni rs bursa cam x gerak...same goes with portfolio...cam frozen...

lock profit for yesterday and today...throw some share cam KKB...DRBH-cc...mitra...but keep profit of the 'free units'...so still got balance units in custody..including DRBH mother...will get back later...

TWS kena huge pullback....now down at area 7.70...Naim too but not that much...but since election is near...plus got relation with Dayang (60% owned by Naim)...plus Dayang proposal of bonus issue...plus Dayang may got contract from shell and now petronas...Naim got huge potential...

personally, aku rs portfolio pre-CNY strong...cuma cabaran kuat sbb beruang dah mula masuk...one thing aku notice...klu Januari mula strong, feb akn ada minor correction...so nothing wrong of being cautious...if stay invested, do keep some bullet for later use...

Monday, January 17, 2011

Pre-CNY portfolio...

2 mggu lebih lagi sblm Chinese New Year...made some adjustment to weed out laggard/loser....retain/hold and shoot new potential...adjustment made aftr sale of 60% DRBHicom (at rm 2.21 aka after peak)..

HOLDING:
1. CSCsteel...enjin blum start..donno when? Hope, soon...
2. DRBH...having 40% (mcm dapat free..coz alreadi took out original capital)...but now DRB facing tough time...now down to 2.03...will enter back...klu dah establish landing base...i'm seeing around 1.90 to 2.00...
3. DRBH-CC...thinking of let go some...to catch mother...no decision yet...long term still good to hold as mother TP2.50...
4. KKB..doing some minor correction...support strong at 2.00...good time to average up soon..once found base...
5. MBMR...still not moving...base around 3.30...if base hold...akn rebound up...sooner or later...might be wise to ave down further...get more lots before too late...

CUT OFF:
1. TopGlove...bye,bye...sayonara for now...sakit hati...rubber prices still stubborn....eats up profit....may affact atleast 2 qtrs...qtr 3 and 4 baru leh nmpk stabilising...took the money and shoot better counter...

NEW ADDITION (in these 2 weeks)...
1. Mitra...entered last friday..when rebound and touched 1.78...so AVP 1.78..for now...today 10% paper profit....Fair Value 4.00...close TP 3.00 enuff said...
2. Naim...entered last week..AVP 3.68...still accumulating...Fair Value around 4.00 also...but speculative play might push highter to PE15 at rm5.00...
3. TWS...basic food counter...sugar, rice & palm cooking oil...finish accumulate...now wait to reach TP...entered in stages...AVP7.75...with TP close at rm9.00....but wait...Fair Value at PE10 = rm11.00 !!!!...

Bursa steady on increase...might see some profit taking prior to CNY...maybe next week??? Preparing to get back some capital....letting the winner run and keep the 'free of charge' units...after CNY, market will move forward...Tat's is for sure...

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

CSCsteel & TopGlove - re-evaluate situation....

CSCsteel jd laggard dlm portfolio...pergerakan harga sgt minima....mula hilang sabar nih...FA wise...look like making a comeback after 3 bulan downtrend...aiyoooo....this is the case of not locking profit!!!

TopGlove...on the other hand...bdepan cabaran besar...penurunan dollar dan peningkatan harga getah akibat cuaca dan permintaan...well...cannot blame others...masa beli dulu igt ka gloves nak wat turn around....this is the case of not doing cut loss!!!

so thinking of letting go....to collect bullet...to shoot other counters...at the moment, tgh dok aim kat 2 potential ctrs...with signs of uptrend...

KKB and MBMR shows signs of life...

KKB price mula bgerak...but volume blum ada...once volume mai, akn berjalan lancar...utk masa ni, still good to hold current position...masih awal utk pyramiding(average up)...looking for further signs..once break 2.20 mgkn volume/interest akan mai dgn kuat...masa tu akan masuk by half...TP masih kekal basing on FA...

MBMR...AVP la ni at 3.365 slps wat averaging down..closed ari ni in profit....with stronger volume...will do average up once uptrend movement is confirmed...but, first, kena break 3.45 dulu....TA wise showing potential uptrend on the way...TP masih kekal basing on FA...

DRBHicom - be strong....more to come...

amik kptusan to lock profit dlm DRBhicom...sold half...keep half...locked profit at 85% untung....

alasan jual...to protect profit...dan keep the rest...to fight on smpai TP2.50 (near)...and beyond spai TP3.50 (far)....lastly swap/anchor more dlm DRBH-CC ...now holding 10 big lot of CC and adding more....if reach 2.50...mother gain berkembang to morethan 100%....dan CC should be around 0.675...another 14% gain or more...

so...now, aku ada a king and a queen for the checkmate...

volume DRB akn come back...why? bcos FA wise...it is still undervalued....TA wise, traders tgh tunggu signal...support 2.20 masih strong....i think once break rm2.30...more people will jump on board...HwangDBS TP utk DRB at 3.55...

Monday, January 10, 2011

Bursa 1563pts - red on negative regional performance...

tutup merah...on profit taking...guess wat, people dah expect profit taking mmgu ni..just tak sgka akn jd on monday 10th....

1st week dok ckp psl bull...now sentimen not so good...evrybodi talk like doomsday knocking on door!!!..pelik,pelik....same people who talk about the year of leaps and bounds...la ni dok cakap psl lariiiii....why perception brubah in less than 1 week???? tat is human emotion...

1st week was just baby bull...believe it or not, the same happen last year during the gloves 'gold rush'.....wat happen after the early year mild correction....market goes up....

yes...correction is healthy....the weak ones take some burn....the smart ones sell half to prepare bullet...the rich fellow will bring in reinforcement (capital)...

yes..follow the trend....but do not kill your golden goose...hope this correction is just a small bruise...good luck evryone...

Saturday, January 08, 2011

Bursa - 1572 pts...New year, New High

bursa tutup mingg1 dgn green bullish....more people happy....but next week camna plak?..friday green...so kmgkinan moday akn green jgk selagi bullish mode masih on....but profit taking possible jgak minggu depan....

congrats to those who make money....sapa masih blum untung, mgkn ada something wrong...sbb now bursa dlm bull mode....beli apa saja bleh wat duit...the real test of man come in bear season...

points to consider...top 10 volume nmpknya d monopoli 'super coma' penny stock....penny sudah mau bangkit...cth

1. saag
2. compugt
3. hubline
4. ircb...etc

but...wat will come next? tema-tema 2011 utk d perhatikan...

1. O&G product/servis...catalyst...crude oil dok naik
2. Sawit Plantation....catalyst...palm oil tgh naik & cuaca
3. Consumer food...catalyst...rise of living expenses (inflation)...rice,sugar, cooking oil...

Thursday, January 06, 2011

Turning into Green Hulk....

opppss...bursa ended green....more bull tomoro....now getting more and more interesting...must be very careful....do not get caught offguard...

more happy people....haha

Bursa - RED in morning session...

bursa kena kad merah pagi nih...nampaknya pergerakan mula dgn FBM30 (big boys aka 1st liner)....

pagi nih big boys kena red card..haha..tp 3rd liner aka cap ayam nmpk aktif....top 30 volume utk sesi pagi penuh dgn penny stock under rm1.00....

next 2nd liner punya turn utk aktif ka? wait and see....

The 3 Golden Keys and 7 Arches of fortune...

This is to remind myself...so that i won't forget!

These are the 3 keys which could unlock immense wealth in stocktrading....

1. FA
2. Volume & Price
3. Theme

And...these are the 7 Arches of great fortune in playing warrant (by hedging against mother)...

1. Always buy warrants below their premium (in the money)...
2. Buy warrants when mother is up...
3. Sell warrant when the mother is down...
4. Do not buy warrant when it is close to expire date...
5. Smaller ratio = more power in price movement..
6. If right issue warrants....do not exercise
7. If Cash Settled Call Warrant....on expire, you win, if current price value higher than exercise value...you lose, if exercise value higher than current price value...

...study them carefully....

MBMR - keep buying on weakness...

am still bullish on MBMR despite today MBMR xde bullish mood...now at 3.30-3.31....TA wise on consolidation phase...and i think will jump into 2nd wave soon...if higher volume come in dlm minggu ni atau depan....akn fly....alreadi top up skit...now AVP @ 3.36...more top up to come if fall between 3.00 to 3.30...think support at 3.20 will hold....just need to break resistance at 3.36...adoiii aku terbeli tinggi masa memula...

other FA on MBMR...NAPS at 3.70....at current price = discount of 10% from book value...dan of course price wise is a bit on the high side...but i took the risks bcos my calculation shows huge potential...so, i'll keep until 4Q result out in Feb 2011...rs akan move by that time towards FV/TP...now chance to accumulate before its too late...

smlm komen di TV3 buletin...about potential rise of class B and C vehicles (compact car segmen) for 2011....with rising fuel cost...and rising cost of living, of course possible...

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

MBMR-accumulate bit by bit...

why MBMR?...rsnya ramai org dah aware psl ni....ntah lah....ok looking kat FA,yer...big potential....calculated projected EPS = Fair Value/TP sekitar rm5.67 (future PE10)...bbanding harga sekarang @rm3.30-3.40....meaning...further upside of 70% winning chances...klu nak bagi discount, say, TP rm4.00??? still ok...

aku collect slowly...

Bursa-Bateri masih kuat, wooo!

masih dlm bullish mood...many happy faces, traders and investors alike....haha...wait till bear season...muka masam jer...

check out E&O !....cilakuih, penat aku tunggu....bila aku jual, enko naik menyacak yer???? haha....win some, lose some...aku just break-even dgn E&O...

other counters will make profit...thats for sure....wats up with KKB??? let's see...Fair Value = rm4.70!!!....calculated basing on projected eps lah...plus election theme in play? plus...directors accumulating....it is a triple combo!!! klu EPF atau PNB kumpul or kuar any good news....bleh jd super combo...

today is a wonderful day....:)

(added later) p/s: if at future PE10 = 4.70 too much...just discount to TP3.00... still look delicious...hope can arrive soon

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

2011-early year bull !!!

bursa buka on 3rd Jan 2011...bulls let loose on the field...plenty of green ushering new year...plus...1 month to CNY and probably general election theme on the way...

My 2011 portfolio:
1. CSCsteel ~> AVP1.72
2. DRBHicom ~>AVP1.19
3. DRBHicom-CC ~>AVP0.47
4. KKB ~>AVP1.90
5. MBMR ~>AVP3.40
6. TOPGlove~> AVP5.76

Did some hedging in DRBHicom-CC, and still accumulate...DRBHicom still hold until arrive my TP...

CSCsteel not moving up...been holding for months now...should have sold at peak last time...considering to fold over into other counter...

KKB, just started engine today...

MBMR, slowly accumulate bit by bit....

TopGlove is not so beautiful now!!! Maybe have to wait until March (past rubber wintering season)...Can't wait that long...


New candidates (FA strong)...got a list of about 5 stocks after doing own research (looking at their financial reports)....Trade BUY in play...slowly accumulate...

Need to remind myself....this time no more play,play....need to follow this maxim ~> use 80:20 rules aka 80%FA, 20%TA....