Kfima - 1Q report 2010...

report kuar ari ni utk 1Q 2010...

1. revenue susut skit...acceptable
2. profit..bertambah by 5 million
3. eps..better drpd 4Q 2009 by 1.92 sen...tp susut 0.41 sen QoQ...

Kfima perlu lagi 15.72 sen utk break even bbanding FY2009...which i think bergantung kpd next 2Q 2010 report kat hujung tahun 2010 nati...perlu catat 5 sen eps utk next 3 qtrs which is possible to achive...

TA wise...masih showing potensi utk drop skit...target area utk accumulation antara support 1.04 hingga 1.14...

declare dividen 5% (tax 25%)..exdate 29 Sept 2010...

3A - harga break wedge pattern...

yesss!!!...3A tutup 1.88 dgn more volume (wlupun x brapa significant) bbanding minggu lps...aka dah break upside spt d target 1.84 dlm previous post...

TA (adix) menunjukkan potensi utk bergrk lebih tinggi...dgn menuju 20 line...gitu gak, MACD jg in tandem showing trend change dr bearish kpd bullish...now, kena follow pergerakan utk mggu ni dgn lebih close...

3A kena break next hurdle kat 1.91 sblm melangkah ke TP close 2.00...setelah dah lama stagnant, heharap 3A bleh start moving...

Happy Merdeka Day!

merdeka!, merdeka!, merdeka!...happy merdeka day kpd semua...esok cuti merdeka so, market rehat sebentar...

selalunya slps cuti market akn on dgn lebih rancak..so after merdeka day, possible trend sama berulang...tambahan lak market minggu ni buka dgn lebih rancak pd hari isnin...

last week, aku dok anticipate market akn down...seems D-day call kena tarik balik...sbb cam aku ckp dlm wangcyber...klu market x mo turun, dia akn naik...so kita kena ikut la...tp always kena hati2 sbb next correction (samada minor atau major) sudah due...

SELAMAT MENYAMBUT HARI MERDEKA...

Keuro and Talam love/hate affair...

Keuro...salah satu kaunter yg aktif trading di bursa at the moment...tgk financialnya mmg pinau mata sbb deep red...keuro nmpknya ada link dgn Talam...lately asik dok dispose share Talam on open market...mgkn...Keuro perlukan cash utk tahan financial drpd drop...

Financial Talam, on the other hand, lebih baik bbanding Keuro...tp lately asik kena dump oleh Keuro & IJM...so how?

Portfolio - Sempena Merdeka

status terkini...slps dispose Scomi dan Kfima dgn untung..

1. 3A (hold)
2. CSCsteel (hold)
3. DRBhicom (hold)
4. KKB (hold)

cash level around 30%...

3A - wedge pattern muncul...

3A nmpk ada pattern 'rising wedge in downtrend' (bearish) dgn range harga semakin menyempit...berlegar sekitar 1.76 -1.84...sekiranya break upside atas 1.84 mgkn signal utk mara jauh ke atas menuju ceiling 2.00...however, sekiranya break 1.76 ke bawah..akn trus jatuh dgn support pada area 1.60...

keep a close watch for another 1-2 weeks utk analysis berikutnya...klu xda perubahan, mgkn terpaksa exit utk ke stock lain...

3A was bought bcoz MA20 break MA50...menandakan new uptrend...problem utama ialah penurunan volume...so klu sell volume dah xda mgkn buy volume akn mai pasni...tp bila buy volume nak mai tu yg jd masalah...

trade option:
1. hold...tp take risk klu harga break downside
2. cutloss 50%...aka play safe
3. average down...double amount
4. exit 100% pd kerugian...

note:
harga tutp 1.81 sgt dekat dgn average price 1.89...for time being, trade call masih lagi HOLD...

Scomi jatuh dan blum touch bottom...

Scomi terus jatuh...close support 0.38...final support 0.36...klu break 0.36, akn jatuh lagi...aku rs masalah dgn scomi ialah additional listing...

stock valuation RM0.28....(stock ni just for pure goreng, FA x kira)

UEMLand: 1H profit up 409%..

haha...booby trap for bilis...why? untung (one time only) sbb dispose Touch and Go kpd Plus...other than that...xde interesting sgt...klu x psl untung disposal tu...mgkn maintain EPS bawah 1 sen per qtr...

bleh take risk, main hit and run (TA only tanpa FA)...tp TA for now menuju ke bwh..

stock valuation RM0.50...
PE tinggi giler...

EPF sdg wat heavy disposal...aku rs disposal tu valid...

yqkew xxx8

masuk senarai potential new project...

1H report baik...QoQ dan YoY meningkat...
1H EPS 4.4 sen
actual PE 8 (pd harga la..)
stock valuation RM 0.88

baru start new uptrend from bottom...very interesting...also coming dividen dlm oktober dgn yield about 2%

Kfima: report 1st qtr blum kuar, dah declare dividen 5%...

ex-date 29 september 2010...5% dividen minus 25% tax...translate into DPS 5 sen atau lbih tepat 3.75 sen seunit (after tax)...aka RM 37.5 utk 1 big lot...

but...nape declare dividen dulu sdgkan report utk 1qtr 2010 blum out lagi...hmmm...apa strategi management dok main nih? adakah to stop harga drpd terjun?...i mean, look at TA Kfima...early stage downtrend sgt obvious...

current price 1.17
ceiling 1.20
support 1.05
revised waiting area 1.05-1.14
EPS 22.32 (prev financial yr)
PE 5 (pd px 1.17)
stock valuation (PE10) RM2.23

all seems too well..unless 1st qtr report revenue, profit atau eps menurun...

KKB...1H 2010 report

report kuar 5 ogos lalu..profit up 132% bbanding 1H tahun lps...excellent...

tp klu banding dgn previous qtr...revenue dan profit turun skit...now the big bomb...EPS shrink drpd 23 to 5 (down about 72%)...no surprise sbb baru lepas bonus issue dan share split...pertambahan unit share akn affect EPS...

slps seeing the report..apa future company ni??? selain good for SabSar theme dan election...dan coming dividen dlm september...fundamental masih hold atau x?...future growth is expected sbb Sarawak dan Sabah jd fokus dlm new Rancangan Malaysia...plus directors pun dok kutip brtrsan..

Stock Valuation at PE10:
0.05X4X10=RM2.00...(wlupun par dah jd 0.50)

PE semasa/current at RM1.78:
*andaian 5 sen EPS bertrsn utk 3qtr & 4qtr EPS
so = 1.78/0.38 = 4!!!...wonderfully undervalued pd harga 1.78

ceiling 2.00...support 1.45...

DRBhicom...1Qtr profit (230% QoQ)

result dah kuar lewat ptg smlm...1st qtr profit up 230% bbanding dgn 1st qtr tahun lepas...skali tgk nmpk nice...but wait...

1. revenue turun skit...so ok la, acceptable...
2. profit?!...haa ni skit musykil...down 39% bbanding previous qtr!!!
3. EPS plak shrink by almost half bbanding previous qtr (from 13 to 8)...wotttt!!

patut ler price payah nak break drpd 1.15...dan epf asik dok dispose..seems like insider dah tau price mgkn dah kira prestasi semasa...

now, slps report ni dah kuar...dan xda lagi brita buruk, harap price akn start gerak ke atas...bottomline, DRBhicom mesti recover balik dlm 2nd, 3rd dan 4th qtr nati...otherwise...bye,bye

Stock Valuation at PE 10
EPS 1st qtr 8 sen...tp amik just 5 sen, kira low la...so
0.05 X 4 X 10 = RM2.00

scomi nak rebound?

nmpk scomi masuk panggung balik dgn accumulation oleh traders area 0.40...utk masa la ni, blum cukup menyakinkan utk masuk balik...target around 0.380 - 0.400 to accumulate....mgkn akn ada brita psl special dividen klu jerung2 dok accumulate...

support stil kat 0.370, ceiling kat 0.46...TP 0.50 minimum....wait further buy signal...

Bursa close green...goosebum lagi byk

x seperti d jangka...be very careful...minor correction terakhir masa sempena World Cup 2010 around 14 may selama 9 ari kejatuhan dr 1346 pts to 1248 pts...losing 98 pts dlm 9 ari...sejak tu trus naik drpd 1248 pts to break 1400 bbrapa ari lalu...

kira dr u-turn slps 9 ari kejatuhan dlm May, almost 150 pts up (double losing pts in May) dgn 2 kali berhenti rehat....'M' sudah confirm...meaning??? dah hampir masak ranum....tunggu masa utk pecah...

jadi, b veri afraid...sbb papa bear is coming down to paint the town red!!!

See you again Kfima...

selesai throw final batch Kfima kat 1.15...sgt sukar nak cari kaunter yg FA baik cam Kfima...with heavy heart kena let go...hopefully utk sementara...

aku wait kat bawah utk re-enter...area 1.10 ke bwh...support kat 1.03...

2 alasan utk dispose:

1. keadaan bursa menuju bearish..
2. TA Kfima menuju downtrend...wlupun FA x brubah...

Recovery...too soon?

Dow recover balik lps down...Euro dan Asia jgk expect camtu...question is...nape recovery cepat sgt?...aku mgkn salah tp klu bursa pun recover cepat dlm sari dua ni, akn confirm kejatuhan lebih parah minggu2 hadapan...pengalaman lepas2, aku remember bursa selalu lag behind baik masa jatuh atau masa naik...

strategy aku...sell on strength...time to exit!

klu perlu cut loss, akn cut 50% dulu atas 2 alasan
1. to average down kemudian...atau
2. to buy new stock pd harga discount...

also...marked- 25 ogos 2010 sbg D-day confirm kejatuhan...2 kali washout...jatuh, rebound, jatuh...tempoh singkat T+6 (min= 7 ari)...tempoh panjang T+20 (mak= 21 ari)...pastu baru u-turn balik...hanya enter new position bila dah 'xda harapan' atau bila 'confirm u-turn'...

explanation = teori aku ni sama mcm 'W' formation, reverse head and shoulder, atau EW...cuma simplified version utk layman cam aku...xde dlm mana2 buku punya..haha...just my observation...

CSCsteel...superb 1H report

310% increase in profit...PE rendah kat PE 7 pd harga 1.70...masalah steel theme blum main...

ceiling 1.80..support 1.60...harga downtrend...should have sold kat 1.80 ari tu..aduss!!!my mistake..tp not to wori...ada chance nak accumulate lagi area 1.60...

strong point:
1. PE low = 7
2. Good results
3. NAPS 2.09
4. DY 12%
5. Hutang very low

3A 1st half report...excellent!!!

dah kuar report on 9 August...profit increase by 36%...but PE 32 agak tinggi...PE actual juga expected area 30... harga stabil around 1.80...dgn ceiling 2.00...support terdekat 1.60...volume rendah...could go both way..up or down?

bila buy volume meningkat bleh pecah 2.00..tp wat masa la ni = coma...msk mid julai 2010...tempoh hold lagi 1 bulan 1/2 ie by mid oktober...

DRBhicom bila nak kuar report nih???

DRBhicom blum kuar report...selalunya kuar end of the month...mgkn esok kot....anyway ari ni tutup pd 1.10...btw, EPF dok wat heavy disposal...nape? result x baik ker?

anywy, TP 1.30-1.50 still x brubah...tapi kena break 1.15 dulu...dgn current situation mgkn susah skit...dgn support kat 1.04 rsnya akn rebound balik...wait area 1.05-1.08 klu nak average...

Portfolio: Bursa pecah 1400

Lps selesai dispose scomi...ni status terkini...

1. 3A (hold)
2. CSCsteel (hold)
3. DRBhicom (hold)
4. Kfima (Trail Stop)
5. KKB (hold)

kenapa hold?...because good stocks hard to come by...Kfima blum cecah trail stop...klu terpksa baru la jual...

dgn cash (from scomi dan 1st batch Kfima) bleh average down atau beli stock baru...

Bursa pecah 1400 pts...profit taking...

Bursa pecah 1400 pts wat kali pertama...pastu jatuh...trend yg sama berulang...pecah new high pastu pasti jatuh...

psl tu bila brita bursa pecah new high tgh dok hangat...aku turn pessimist...so tukar mode ke selling...now waiting to buy at discount...

ari ni hari pertama tentera merah msk padang....world bourses pun dok merah....expect merah btrusan utk bbrapa ari lagi...

nmpk bursa support kat 1350 pts...

meanwhile...masa bursa merah, ada x stock baru nak uptrend???? kena scan...

TA atau FA???

aku punya approach dlm saham ni adalah combination antara Fundamental dan Technical....or FA dan TA...mana mai dulu? mcm crita ayam dgn telur..based on experience, dua2 sama penting...

dulu hanya focus kat FA..fuhhh mmg hardwork...study financial report dan sbgnya...but sometimes terkena jugak sbb wrong entry....pastu guna TA plak...still terkena sbb pilih stock yg financialnya teruk..so slps tu aku decides nak gabung dua2...well, byk org cakap TA dan FA sgt berbeza sbb approach yg berbeza...aku stuju...that's why aku amik middle ground..amik the best from each approach...

Kfima...trailing stop 1.11

selling mode agak agresif di bursa la ni...majoriti share is falling..Kfima wlu pun FA baik kena tempias...trailing stop 1.11...

pagi open 1.16..la ni dah 1.13...aiyooo...

satu lesson yg pernah aku pelajari dulu....when traders are disposing shares...even good FA company pun akn kena...huhu...

Scomi masuk longkang...utk sementara?

hehheh...slps kumpul scomi pd 0.405 lbh krg 1 bulan lepas, aku start dispose scomi dlm batches especially bila dah spai peak around 0.46...signal TA show penurunan bakal jadi...so quickly aku let go wlu target asal 0.50 (minimum)...last batch dispose kat 0.435

aku keep an eye scomi...wlu la ni dah jatuh bawah 0.410...mgkn akn rebound klu ada news psl special dividen...bulan lps div drpd scomien (70% owned by scomi)...harap camtu lah...tunggu signal accumulation besar2an oleh directors atau funds...

Salam kpd semua...

1. Diari/catatan/blog ni adalah long overdue...actually plan nak publish awal 2009 tapi x pernah jadi...too busy dgn kerja lain yg > mustahak...

2. Sbb ni adalah diari/catatan peribadi...so, mgkn ada pandang yg 'bias'...normal la kan...free feel klu nak bagi pandangan berbeza...tapi harap budi bahasa dan kesopanan dijaga...

3. Aku bukan sifu...just a typical bilis investor/trader...tapi had learn a lot from past experiences...mula invest dalam bursa since 2006...ada up and down dlm saham...that's my story...

4. Kata akhir...aku x offer tips atau promo share pa2 d sini...klu ada soalan yg mampu jawab, aku akn jawb...but most of the time, aku akn mumble my thoughts d sini...bleh jadi salah, bleh jadi betul...at the end of the day, tu lah alasan aku wat post d sini...sbb senang wat reflection bila perlu...

p/s: klu ada tips ttg camna nak wat blog blog lagi menarik...sgt2 d hargai...psl aku pun x power dlm wat2 blog ni...basic kowledge jer...