Mudajaya: mother and daughter- wat's goin on???

aku x sure apa yg sdg berlaku...here some simple detective work based on surface...

current yr qtr-------rev(mil)------profit/loss(mil)-----eps(sen)-------accumulated eps
------3rd-------191-----------46-----------------11.37------------36.97
------2nd-------208----------54------------------13.24-----------25.59
------1st-------239-----------50------------------12.35----------12.35
prev FY 4th----211-----------41------------------11.02-----------31.38

da question is....wat do u see???? ni apa yg aku nmpk...

1. starting 4th qtr (previous financial year aka 2009)...rev+profit+eps up bbandng qtr2 sblm nya= good news indeed

2. mulai qtr 1 to qtr 3 FY2010...breached and maintain above 190 mil rev + above 45 mil profit + and finally above 10 eps from qtr1 to qtr3...=amazing feat...

3. tgk accumulated eps sj dah tau...qtr3 punya result dah surpass FY 2009....meaning utk qtr4 result (bakal kuar pd Feb 2011) mmg FY2010 akan lebih baik berbanding FY2009...letak eps minima pd 5 sen pun dah cukup...accumulated eps FY2010 akan = 41.97 sen...bbandng FY2009 = 31.38....logik,kan? overall impressive!!!

4. basing on tutup last pd rm3.76...dan target eps qtr4 FY2010 pd minima 10 sen eps...future PE mudajaya = 8...translated pd PE10, harga mudajaya ialah rm4.70...normal PE construction brapa? katakan PE 15...so fully valued at PE15= rm7.04 !!!!

5. Meaning??? in a perfect world...Mudajaya mother is undervalued at rm3.76...

but here's the catch...remember the poison pen letter...

1. claiming about mudajaya account being manipulated...tp x kena celaan SC pun???
2. nor...accounting company utk mudajaya kena tangkap/kantoi?

wat ever the issue is...yg pasti...

1. ramai panik dan hilang focus...(poison pen tu mmg berkesan)
2. ramai kena trap dlm mother dan warrant...(termasuk aku la tu...)
3. bila ramai clear position...domino effect akn sbbkan harga jatuh lagi bawah...
4. the last man standing is either an intelligent investor or a greater fool!

apa option bleh buat...
1. buy mother bila mother jatuh (bperingkat)
2. buy warrant bila mother start naik (bperingkat
3. average down (double or triple)
4. cut loss
5. hold and hope

at this stage...mother tutup pd 3.76...CB plak pd 0.015 dgn expiry 104 hari lagi aka lagi 3 bulan...cukup spai bulan 3 tahun 2011...

if just hold, the at AVP 0.075 x 8 = RM0.60 (ratio 8 to 1)... plus conversion at rm 5.65....so TP minimum = rm6.25 (just to breakeven)...previous highest price was on 22nd july 2010 touching rm6.10 sblm tutup at 5.94...then downhill spai la...5 bulan dah!

klu aku average down (double or triple dare) utk CB at 0.015...naik ke 0.025 dah cukup utk breakeven...but klu mother turun lagi...CB akn wipe all my hard earned profit for this year...

bottom line, my final decision...is to hold CB and sell into strength...while minimizing/accepting my loss in CB...hopefully Mudajaya akn wat u-turn mulai early (jan or feb) next year....insyaAllah.